Diagnostic performance of sonographic activity scores for adult terminal ileal Crohn’s disease compared to magnetic resonance and histological reference standards:experience from the METRIC trial

Objectives: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn’s disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) are promising intestinal ultrasound (IUS) indices of CD, but studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. We compared SUS-CD and BUSS against histological and magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) reference standards in a post hoc analysis of a prospective multicentre, multireader trial. Methods: Participants recruited to the METRIC trial (ISRCTN03982913) were studied, including those with available terminal ileal (TI) biopsies. Sensitivity and specificity of SUS-CD and BUSS for TI CD activity were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), from the prospective observations of the original METRIC trial sonographers against the histological activity index (HAI) and the simplified magnetic resonance index of activity (sMARIA). Results: We included 284 patients (median 31.5 years, IQR 23–46) from 8 centres, who underwent IUS and MRE. Of these, 111 patients had available terminal ileal biopsies with HAI scoring. Against histology, sensitivity and specificity for active disease were 79% (95% CI 69–86%) and 50% (31–69%) for SUS-CD, and 66% (56–75%) and 68% (47–84%) for BUSS, respectively. Compared to sMARIA, the sensitivity and specificity for active CD were 81% (74–86%) and 75% (66–83%) for SUS-CD, and 68% (61–74%) and 85% (76–91%) for BUSS, respectively. The sensitivity of SUS-CD was significantly greater than that of BUSS against HAI and sMARIA (p &lt; 0.001), but its specificity was significantly lower than of BUSS against the MRE reference standard (p = 0.003). Conclusions: Particularly when compared to MRE activity scoring, SUS-CD and BUSS are promising tools in a real-world clinical setting.Clinical relevance statement: When tested using data from a multicentre, multireader diagnostic accuracy trial, the simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn’s disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) were clinically viable intestinal ultrasound indices that were reasonably sensitive and specific for terminal ileal Crohn’s disease, especially when compared to a magnetic resonance reference standard.</p

Diagnostic performance of sonographic activity scores for adult terminal ileal Crohn's disease compared to magnetic resonance and histological reference standards: experience from the METRIC trial

OBJECTIVES: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) are promising intestinal ultrasound (IUS) indices of CD, but studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. We compared SUS-CD and BUSS against histological and magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) reference standards in a post hoc analysis of a prospective multicentre, multireader trial. METHODS: Participants recruited to the METRIC trial (ISRCTN03982913) were studied, including those with available terminal ileal (TI) biopsies. Sensitivity and specificity of SUS-CD and BUSS for TI CD activity were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), from the prospective observations of the original METRIC trial sonographers against the histological activity index (HAI) and the simplified magnetic resonance index of activity (sMARIA). RESULTS: We included 284 patients (median 31.5 years, IQR 23-46) from 8 centres, who underwent IUS and MRE. Of these, 111 patients had available terminal ileal biopsies with HAI scoring. Against histology, sensitivity and specificity for active disease were 79% (95% CI 69-86%) and 50% (31-69%) for SUS-CD, and 66% (56-75%) and 68% (47-84%) for BUSS, respectively. Compared to sMARIA, the sensitivity and specificity for active CD were 81% (74-86%) and 75% (66-83%) for SUS-CD, and 68% (61-74%) and 85% (76-91%) for BUSS, respectively. The sensitivity of SUS-CD was significantly greater than that of BUSS against HAI and sMARIA (p < 0.001), but its specificity was significantly lower than of BUSS against the MRE reference standard (p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: Particularly when compared to MRE activity scoring, SUS-CD and BUSS are promising tools in a real-world clinical setting. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: When tested using data from a multicentre, multireader diagnostic accuracy trial, the simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease (SUS-CD) and bowel ultrasound score (BUSS) were clinically viable intestinal ultrasound indices that were reasonably sensitive and specific for terminal ileal Crohn's disease, especially when compared to a magnetic resonance reference standard. KEY POINTS: The simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease and bowel ultrasound score are promising intestinal ultrasound indices of Crohn's disease but to date studied mainly in small settings with few sonographers. Compared to histology and the magnetic resonance reference standard in a multicentre, multireader setting, the sensitivity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease is significantly greater than that of bowel ultrasound score. The specificity of simple ultrasound activity score for Crohn's disease was significantly lower than that of bowel ultrasound score compared to the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard. The specificity of both indices was numerically higher when the magnetic resonance enterography reference standard was adopted

Observer agreement for small bowel ultrasound in Crohn’s disease:results from the METRIC trial

Purpose: To prospectively evaluate interobserver agreement for small bowel ultrasound (SBUS) in newly diagnosed and relapsing Crohn’s disease. Methods: A subset of patients recruited to a prospective trial comparing the diagnostic accuracy of MR enterography and SBUS underwent a second SBUS performed by one of a pool of six practitioners, who recorded the presence, activity and location of small bowel and colonic disease. Detailed segmental mural and extra-mural observations were also scored. Interobserver variability was expressed as percentage agreement with a construct reference standard, split by patient cohort, grouping disease as present or absent. Prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa (PABAK), and simple percentage agreement between practitioners, irrespective of the reference standard, were calculated. Results: Thirty-eight patients (11 new diagnosis, 27 relapse) were recruited from two sites. Overall percentage agreement for small bowel disease presence against the consensus reference was 82% (52–95% (95%CI)), kappa coefficient (κ) 0.64, (substantial agreement) for new diagnosis and 81%, κ 0.63 (substantial agreement) for the relapsing cohort. Agreement for colonic disease presence was 64%, κ 0.27 (fair agreement) in new diagnosis and 78%,κ 0.56 (moderate agreement) in the relapsing cohort. Simple agreement between practitioners was 84% and 87% for small bowel and colonic disease presence respectively. Practitioners agreed on small bowel disease activity in 24/27 (89%) where both identified disease. Kappa agreement for detailed mural observations ranged from κ 0.00 to 1.00. Conclusion: There is substantial practitioner agreement for small bowel disease presence in newly diagnosed and relapsing CD patients, supporting wider dissemination of enteric US.</p

Observer agreement for small bowel ultrasound in Crohn’s disease:results from the METRIC trial

Purpose: To prospectively evaluate interobserver agreement for small bowel ultrasound (SBUS) in newly diagnosed and relapsing Crohn’s disease. Methods: A subset of patients recruited to a prospective trial comparing the diagnostic accuracy of MR enterography and SBUS underwent a second SBUS performed by one of a pool of six practitioners, who recorded the presence, activity and location of small bowel and colonic disease. Detailed segmental mural and extra-mural observations were also scored. Interobserver variability was expressed as percentage agreement with a construct reference standard, split by patient cohort, grouping disease as present or absent. Prevalence adjusted bias adjusted kappa (PABAK), and simple percentage agreement between practitioners, irrespective of the reference standard, were calculated. Results: Thirty-eight patients (11 new diagnosis, 27 relapse) were recruited from two sites. Overall percentage agreement for small bowel disease presence against the consensus reference was 82% (52–95% (95%CI)), kappa coefficient (κ) 0.64, (substantial agreement) for new diagnosis and 81%, κ 0.63 (substantial agreement) for the relapsing cohort. Agreement for colonic disease presence was 64%, κ 0.27 (fair agreement) in new diagnosis and 78%,κ 0.56 (moderate agreement) in the relapsing cohort. Simple agreement between practitioners was 84% and 87% for small bowel and colonic disease presence respectively. Practitioners agreed on small bowel disease activity in 24/27 (89%) where both identified disease. Kappa agreement for detailed mural observations ranged from κ 0.00 to 1.00. Conclusion: There is substantial practitioner agreement for small bowel disease presence in newly diagnosed and relapsing CD patients, supporting wider dissemination of enteric US.</p

Proceedings of the 13th annual conference of INEBRIA

CITATION: Watson, R., et al. 2016. Proceedings of the 13th annual conference of INEBRIA. Addiction Science & Clinical Practice, 11:13, doi:10.1186/s13722-016-0062-9.The original publication is available at https://ascpjournal.biomedcentral.comENGLISH SUMMARY : Meeting abstracts.https://ascpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13722-016-0062-9Publisher's versio

Markov Puppy Dogs and Other Related Animals

It is shown that steady state Markov perfect equilibria of discrete time, infinite horizon, quadratic, adjustment cost games differ from equilibria of their infinitely repeated counterpart games with zero adjustment costs even though no adjustment costs are paid in the steady state. In contrast to continuous time games, the limit of these equilibria as adjustment costs approach zero is the same as the equilibria of their static counterpart games. A classification scheme is presented and it is shown that the taxonomy is identical to that of analogous two stage games such as those analyzed by Fudenberg and Tirole (1984). This classification is useful in that it implies that steady state equilibria need not be explicitly calculated to analyze qualitatively the effects of adjustment costs in strategic environments. Is is also argued that estimated conjectural variations parameters may capture a well defined property of strategic interaction in a dynamic game

A Dynamic Model of Endogenous Trade Policy

A puzzle in the analysis of trade policy is why free trade outcomes, which maximize world income, are not more often observed. One reason is that economics agents with special interests affect both the form and level of international protective policies. This paper investigates the dynamic interaction of special interest groups and highlights endogenous links between current policies and future policies. We explore these intertemporal links in a general equilibrium environment in which lobbying activity and tariff policies are the outcome of a dynamic game among interest groups located in both countries. In the Markov perfect equilibrium, future policies are affected by current policies as the current trade regime affects the ability and the willingness of these groups to lobby for future policies which favor their interests. An unusual feature of the economy is that the transition probabilities over trading regimes are endogenous. The average length of a trade war can be computed as a function of these probabilities, and we show that it is increasing in the agents' degree of risk aversion. In addition, due to deadweight losses associated with lobbying, expected aggregate welfare in a lobbying equilibrium is generally below autarkic welfare