Tourism in the Mediterranean: Scenarios up to 2030. MEDPRO Report No. 1/July 2011- (updated May 2013)

From 1990 to 2010, the 11 countries of the south-eastern Mediterranean region (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Occupied Palestinian Territory, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey, hereafter SMCs) recorded the highest growth rates in inbound world tourism. In the same period, domestic tourism in these countries also increased rapidly, which is astonishing given the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties in the region. Even the 2008 financial crisis had no severe impact on this growth, confirming the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the SMCs in this sector. The Arab Spring brought this trend to an abrupt halt in early 2011, but it may resume after 2014 with the gradual democratisation process, despite the economic slowdown of the European Union – its main market. This paper looks at whether this trend will continue up to 2030, and provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in SMCs for 2030: i) reference scenario, ii) common (cooperation) sustainable development scenario, iii) polarised (regional) development scenario and iv) failed development – decline and conflict – scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourist arrivals will increase. However, three main factors will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in the SMCs: security, competitiveness linked to the efficient use of ICT, and adjustment to climate change

Tourism in the MED 11 countries

For the last two decades, MED11 counties (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestinian Autonomy, Syria, Tunisia and Turkey) have recorded the highest growth rate in inbound world tourism. In the same time, domestic tourism in these countries was growing very fast. MED 11 tourism performances have been astonishing in light of the security risks, natural disasters, oil prices rises and economic uncertainties of the region. The last financial crisis had no severe consequences on this development, which confirmed the resilience of tourism and the huge potential of the MED 11 countries in this sector. This trend was abruptly halted in early 2011 during the Arab Spring, but could resume when the situation stabilizes. This paper questions whether this trend will continue in the period up to 2030 and, for that, provides four different possible scenarios for the development of the tourism sector in MED11 for 2030: (i) reference scenario, (ii) common sustainable development scenario, (iii) polarized (regional) development scenario and (iv) failed development - decline and conflict - scenario. In all cases, international and domestic tourism arrivals will grow. However, security and adjustment to climate change remain the main factors that will strongly influence the development of the tourism sector in MED11 countries

Tourism scenarios for 2025, 2035 and 2050

El milagro del excepcional crecimiento del turismo desde el final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial se ha convertido en un espejismo con la COVID19. ¿Tenemos que creer en su eterna resiliencia? ¿Veremos sus límites? Esta tesis doctoral supone que el turismo sólo puede durar si es responsable y solidario y si forma parte de políticas sociales y medioambientales, progresivas y territoriales en el entorno de la globalización, de una Sociedad – Mundo. Esta tesis fue escrita en dos etapas: antes y durante la pandemia del COVID19. Después de describir el estado de la literatura turística, con un enfoque particular en los aspectos filosóficos, antropológicos, sociales y ambientales de la investigación académica, institucional y profesional, el doctorante había pedido a más de 100 expertos turísticos, en 2019, que acordaran cómo podría ser el turismo después de 2025, 2035 y hasta 2050. Se han recibido muy pocas respuestas. Esta investigación tuvo que reanudarse durante la pandemia, en noviembre de 2020, con un cuestionario más escueto, gracias a la herramienta de opinión Likert. Esta vez, 77 profesores, profesionales, funcionarios territoriales y periodistas respondieron. Los resultados muestran un conservadurismo relativo de quienes trabajan en el turismo. Sin embargo, después de la pandemia, ha sido necesario introducir algunos cambios. Tres escenarios los explican, la primera tendencia conduce al desorden; la segunda demasiado centrada en el simple desarrollo sostenible en una economía ultra-liberal con más desigualdades, mientras que la tercera nos trae esperanza. Al elegir la economía circular y colaborativa con la aceleración de la digitalización del sector, se puede creer en un desarrollo sostenible y armonioso, en primer lugar, de los destinos locales, pero también, tomando precauciones y luchando contra el cambio climático, más allá en un espacio internacional. En cualquier caso, se requerirán más leyes, más regulación y más normas internacionales.Le miracle de la croissance exceptionnelle du tourisme depuis la fin de la 2ème Guerre Mondiale est devenu mirage avec la COVID19. Faut-il croire à son éternelle résilience, ne voit-on pas déjà ses limites ? Cette thèse de doctorat émet l’hypothèse que le tourisme ne pourra durer que s’il est responsable et solidaire et s’il s’inscrit dans des politiques sociales et environnementales progressistes et territoriales dans le cadre de la mondialisation, celui d’une Société – Monde. Cette thèse fut écrite en deux temps : avant et pendant la pandémie. Après avoir décrit l’état de la littérature touristique, en se penchant plus particulièrement sur les aspects philosophiques, anthropologiques, sociaux et environnementaux des recherches académiques, institutionnelles et professionnelles, le doctorant avait demandé en 2019 à plus de cent experts du tourisme de se rassembler sur un consensus sur ce que pourrait être le tourisme après 2025, 2035 et à l’horizon 2050. Peu de réponses lui sont parvenues. Il a fallu reprendre cette enquête durant la pandémie en noviembre 2020 de manière plus légère grâce à l’outil d’opinions Likert. Cette fois-ci, 77 professeurs, professionnels, responsables territoriaux et journalistes ont répondu. Les résultats montrent un relatif conservatisme de ceux qui oeuvrent dans le tourisme. Pourtant après la pandémie, des changements auront lieu. Trois scénarios les expliquent, le premier tendanciel conduit à des désordres, le second trop axé sur le simple développement durable dans une économie ultralibérale à plus d’inégalités, le troisième est porteur d’espoirs. Grâce au choix de l’économie circulaire et collaborative et à l’accélération de la digitalisation du secteur, il peut permettre un développement durable et harmonieux, en premier lieu, des destinations de proximité, mais aussi, en prenant des précautions et en luttant contre le changement climatique, plus loin dans un espace international. Dans tous les cas, il faudra plus de lois, plus de réglementation, plus de normes et de standards internationaux.The miracle of the exceptional growth of tourism since the end of the Second World War has become a mirage with the COVID19. Do we have to believe in his eternal resilience, do we not already see his limits? This doctoral dissertation hypothesizes that tourism can only last if it is responsible and supportive and if it is part of progressive and territorial social - environmental policies within globalization in the Society - World. This dissertation was written in two stages: before and during the pandemic. After describing the state of tourism literature, with a particular focus on the philosophical, anthropological, social and environmental aspects of academic, institutional and professional research, the PhD student had asked more than 100 tourism experts in 2019 to agree on what tourism could be after 2025, 2035 and by 2050. Few answers have come to him. This investigation had to be resumed during the pandemic in November 2020 in a lighter way thanks to the Likert opinion tool. This time, 77 professors, professionals, territorial officials, and journalists responded. The results show a relative conservatism of those who work in tourism. Yet after the pandemic, changes will take place. Three scenarios explain them, the first trend leads to disorder, the second too focused on simple sustainable development in an ultraliberal economy with more inequalities, the third brings hope. By choosing the circular and collaborative economy and accelerating the digitalization of the sector, it can enable sustainable and harmonious development, first of all, local destinations, but also, by taking precautions and combating climate change, further into an international space. In any case, more laws, more regulation, more standards, and more international standards will be required

The organizational development of the World Tourism Organization : a case story

Typescript (photocopy).The purpose of this study was to investigate and describe the organizational development of the World Tourism Organization (WTO), world's official intergovernmental agency dealing with tourism since the creation of the International Union of Official Travel Organizations (IUOTO) in 1947, in terms of values, goals, structure, activities, leadership and environmental frameworks. An overall hypothesis and four corollary hypotheses have been tested to determine if the changes in IUOTO and WTO organizational development reflected the changes in world tourism and environment since 1946. The objective of this study was, therefore, to understand the rationale of an emerging organizational process in relation to changes in world tourism activity. The data for the organizational investigation were obtained from the summary records and proceedings of 29 General Assemblies and related events concerning the International Union of Official Travel Organizations and the World Tourism Organization. The technique of content analysis was used to test the hypotheses, after the designation of appropriate theme units of analysis were evaluated by five (5) judges, all having an expertise on tourism and/or international affairs. Sixty-three theme units have been classified in a set of five categories. This set was designed to evaluate: (1) the changes in the approach to tourism values, attributes and problems from the end of the Second World War until the present; (2) the influence and patterns of membership, general participation and leadership within IUOTO and WTO; (3) the changes in the organizational ideology and goals structure of IUOTO and WTO; (4) the importance of external factors which influenced IUOTO and WTO; (5) the changes in the Organization's operations or outputs. Conclusions indicate that there is a significant degree of response in the organizational ideology, goal structure and operations patterns of IUOTO and WTO to world and tourism changing conditions. Finally, the findings of this dissertation make a contribution, the first of this type on IUOTO and WTO, to the understanding of the nature and scope of WTO's role and operations in the future which will be more oriented towards realistic cooperation likewise interested in the development of tourism with particular attention to the problems of developing countries

Turismo, Migraciones y codesarrollo

Tourism is one of the first economic activities in the world generating directly and indirectly between the 10 and 12% of world wealth. Its successes have hidden during a long time its social impacts and negative effects on environment, also hiding the narrow and intense relations that occur between tourism and migrations. Be enough with indicating that emigrants coming from the South or the European East usually use a tourist visa to reach their “promised land”. Immigrants coming from the North -more and more numerous- are, often, tourists who decide to remain in the place where they have chosen to visit. In the global context it is necessary to analyse the relations between tourism and migration, and the way as tourism could integrate the migratory phenomenon in its sociopolitical dimension from the principles of codevelopment. The author suggests leaning more in the eyes of the sociologist and the political analyst to evaluate the new subjects that affect tourism, such as the implications of social mobility/migration, the free circulation of people and their impact on both developing and developed societies.<br><br>El turismo es una de las primeras actividades económicas del mundo, generando directa o indirectamente entre el 10 y el 12% de la riqueza mundial. Durante mucho tiempo, el éxito económico de la actividad turística ha ocultado sus impactos sociales y sus efectos nocivos sobre el medio ambiente, difuminando también las estrechas e intensas relaciones que se dan entre el turismo y las migraciones. Estas relaciones tienen un alcance político y sociológico de gran amplitud. Baste con señalar que los emigrantes provenientes del Sur o Este europeo suelen utilizar el visado turístico para alcanzar su “tierra prometida”. El inmigrante procedente del Norte —cada vez más numeroso— es, a menudo, un turista que decide quedarse de forma permanente en el lugar donde elige para vivir. En el actual contexto de la globalización, es oportuno y necesario preguntarse por las relaciones entre turismo y migración, y por el modo como el turismo podría integrar políticamente el fenómeno migratorio a partir de los principios del codesarrollo. El autor sugiere apoyarse en la mirada del sociólogo y del politólogo para analizar los nuevos temas que afectan al turismo, como son las implicaciones de la movilidad social/migración, la libre circulación de las personas y su impacto tanto en los países de origen como en los de destino

The organizational development of the World Tourism Organization : a case story

Typescript (photocopy).The purpose of this study was to investigate and describe the organizational development of the World Tourism Organization (WTO), world's official intergovernmental agency dealing with tourism since the creation of the International Union of Official Travel Organizations (IUOTO) in 1947, in terms of values, goals, structure, activities, leadership and environmental frameworks. An overall hypothesis and four corollary hypotheses have been tested to determine if the changes in IUOTO and WTO organizational development reflected the changes in world tourism and environment since 1946. The objective of this study was, therefore, to understand the rationale of an emerging organizational process in relation to changes in world tourism activity. The data for the organizational investigation were obtained from the summary records and proceedings of 29 General Assemblies and related events concerning the International Union of Official Travel Organizations and the World Tourism Organization. The technique of content analysis was used to test the hypotheses, after the designation of appropriate theme units of analysis were evaluated by five (5) judges, all having an expertise on tourism and/or international affairs. Sixty-three theme units have been classified in a set of five categories. This set was designed to evaluate: (1) the changes in the approach to tourism values, attributes and problems from the end of the Second World War until the present; (2) the influence and patterns of membership, general participation and leadership within IUOTO and WTO; (3) the changes in the organizational ideology and goals structure of IUOTO and WTO; (4) the importance of external factors which influenced IUOTO and WTO; (5) the changes in the Organization's operations or outputs. Conclusions indicate that there is a significant degree of response in the organizational ideology, goal structure and operations patterns of IUOTO and WTO to world and tourism changing conditions. Finally, the findings of this dissertation make a contribution, the first of this type on IUOTO and WTO, to the understanding of the nature and scope of WTO's role and operations in the future which will be more oriented towards realistic cooperation likewise interested in the development of tourism with particular attention to the problems of developing countries

Tourisme, incertitudes politiques et démocratisation

« Si ceci est le meilleur des mondes », se dit-il, « à quoi pourrait ressembler le reste » (Voltaire, Candide) « L’avenir a un long passé » (Réflexion biblique et coranique) Les communiqués de presse de l’Organisation mondiale du tourisme (OMT) sont optimistes : crises politiques, terrorisme international, spectre de la récession, catastrophes sanitaires et naturelles surviennent de plus en plus fréquemment dans toutes les régions du monde, pourtant le tourisme poursuit cahin-caha son petit b..