Beyond the Classroom: Applying a Business Process Model of Weather Forecasting to Aviation Meteorology

Modern weather analysis and forecasting has become a very complex enterprise, with aspects that are purely scientific, and others that are business operations-related. At Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University\u27s Daytona Beach campus, a business process model of the weather forecasting enterprise has been used as a teaching tool in the undergraduate course Forecasting Techniques. The model consists of two major, interrelated components, known as the Weather Information Processing Cycle (WIPC), and the Provider-User Relationship (FUR). The WIPC describes forecasting from the traditional scientific point of view, but contains user-focused processes such as product tailoring, dissemination, and user integration in addition to the familiar scientific processes such as data collection, analysis, and prediction. The PUR examines the business relationship between the provider of meteorological information and the user of that information. While the PUR provides a bridge for students to progress from studying basic forecasting techniques in the WIPC to examining the business relationship between weather information providers and users, there are applications of this model beyond the classroom. This paper introduces the model and shows how it can be applied to investigate the relationship between aviation weather information providers and users, using examples from the interagency Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) program

The Tornado that Struck Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University on Christmas Day, 2006: Lessons Learned from a Near-Miss

An F2 tornado that touched down in Daytona Beach on Christmas Day afternoon caused over $50 million of damage to the Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University campus and nearby neighborhoods. The tornado was part of a severe-weather outbreak over Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina that began during the overnight hours of 25 December 2006. Examination of surface and upper-level meteorological charts and vertical soundings on the morning of 25 December showed stability and wind-shear conditions favorable for tornadic thunderstorms over this region. The evolution of the squall line that moved through east-central Florida, and the parent thunderstorm that produced the tornado was examined using meteorological data from the Next Generation Doppler Radar, and Daytona Beach International Airport’s Automated Surface Observing System and Low Level Wind Shear Alert System. Non-meteorological data included eyewitness accounts from the Embry-Riddle Campus Safety Department and the airport tower’s air traffic controllers. These data sources were used to construct a timeline for the squall line’s passage, tornado touchdown at the east end of the airport’s runway 7L/25R complex, and subsequent damage path across the Embry-Riddle campus. A reconstruction of the damage path using fall semester enrollments and class locations estimated that between 400 and 500 people would have been in the tornado’s path had it occurred during a typical Monday afternoon when classes were in session. Additionally, Comair Flight 580, enroute to Daytona Beach from New York, was scheduled to land at the same time the tornado touched down at the airport, but a power outage in the radar approach control facility caused the flight to deviate from its scheduled track. Fortunately, the crew established contact with Daytona Tower and were guided to a safe landing about 25 minutes after the tornado hit. Lessons learned from this case are outlined in the form of a protocol that can be adopted by collegiate aviation programs and airport management, patterned after the four phases of emergency management: (a) mitigation, (b) preparedness, (c) response, and (d) recovery

The New Aviation Meteorology Specialization in the Graduate Aeronautics Program at Embry-Riddle

The next 12 months will be an exciting time of growth in graduate aviation studies at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University\u27s Daytona Beach, FL campus. Beginning in Fall Semester 2009, a new Area of Concentration (AOC) in Aviation Meteorology will be added to the Master of Science in Aeronautics (MSA) program, and the new Doctoral program in Aviation will be starting in January 2010. The Aviation Meteorology AOC adds a crucial specialty to the existing MSA options in Air Traffic Management, Aviation/Aerospace Education Technology, Aviation/Aerospace Management, Aviation/Aerospace Operations, and Aviation/Aerospace Safety Systems. The Aviation Meteorology AOC is designed to be a cross-disciplinary program that will be very important as we enter the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) era. In order to make the transition from today\u27s operations in which critical functions such as weather and air traffic control are largely separate, to the NextGen era with its collaborative decision-making and probabilistic decision assistance tools, people are needed who can be equally conversant and comfortable across multiple functional areas—precisely the types of individuals we are aiming to produce with this program. The NextGen concepts of Weather/Air Traffic Management Integration, Weather Technology in the Cockpit, Trajectory Based Operations, and Collaborative Decision-making will require professionals trained to think outside of traditional “stove-piped” functions. The market for individuals with cross-disciplinary graduate training in both meteorology and aviation will expand as the Federal Government, industry, and academia build the NextGen system over the next 15 years. The AOC in Aviation Meteorology revolves around a four-course sequence consisting of a graduate survey course in meteorology, an advanced aviation meteorology course, a research seminar that focuses on special topics, and a choice of dual-credit 400-level courses in applied meteorology such as statistical applications. Additionally, students will have the option of a six-credit M.S. thesis, which will allow them to work alongside graduate faculty and industry partners who are doing cutting-edge research, so that a graduate from this AOC could have as many as half of his/her credits in advanced aviation meteorology by the time the program is completed. Initial response from the student body has been enthusiastic, as evidenced by an experimental graduate seminar in Weather and Air Traffic Integration this summer that drew students with backgrounds in commercial and private aviation, applied meteorology, and engineering physics

A Proposed Taxonomy for General Aviation Pilot Weather Education and Training

As General Aviation (GA) safety continues to remain a focus of the aviation community, GA pilot weather education and training continues to be an active area of interest within the research community. This study introduces a taxonomy for organizing GA pilot weather education and training materials that was originally conceived as part of the FAA’s Weather Technology In the Cockpit research program. The taxonomy is built upon three main knowledge categories, or tiers:1) Weather Phenomena (which includes hazards); 2) Weather Hazard Products; and 3) Weather Hazard Product Sources and their Application. The concept behind the categorization is to link knowledge of basic meteorological concepts/theory, hazards, and hazard products to the application of that knowledge to make correct aeronautical decisions about the weather in all phases of flight, including planning. The application tier of the taxonomy is particularly important in today’s operating environment, where many commercial weather products and hand-portable applications are available to the GA community. These products and applications are not intended to teach pilots about weather; it is assumed that the pilot has an adequate weather background and understands the uses and limitations of these products. Our research and that of others on GA pilot education and training suggests that this may not be the case, thus the need for a methodology that “connects the dots” from theory to application. The “version 1.0” of the taxonomy contains these three tiers with two to three subcategories contained within each. Each subcategory itself can contain a number of individual topic areas. The taxonomy was developed by a subject matter expert team consisting of two aviation meteorologists, a certificated flight instructor with a meteorological background (who recently completed a Ph.D. in Aviation), a human factors psychologist, and two human factors doctoral students. The taxonomy’s potential applications in the education and training environment are also presented

General Aviation Weather Encounter Case Studies

This study presents a compilation of 24 cases involving general aviation (GA) pilots’ weather encounters over the continental U.S. The project team interviewed pilots who had experienced a weather encounter, and we examined their backgrounds, flight experience, and weather encounter details. Results from meteorological data analysis for each weather encounter were consistent with findings of larger GA weather accident studies in terms of the types of hazards encountered and flight phase during which the encounters occurred. Investigation of pilot weather products and the sources from which they were obtained revealed a lack of uniformity of pre-flight data sources and underutilization of available en route flight information services. The team used these results to develop a set of pilot weather education and training recommendations intended to reduce the number and severity of weather encounters

Beyond the Classroom: Applying a Business Process Model of Weather Forecasting to Aviation Meteorology

Modern weather analysis and forecasting has become a very complex enterprise, with aspects that are purely scientific, and others that are business operations-related. At Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University\u27s Daytona Beach campus, a business process model of the weather forecasting enterprise has been used as a teaching tool in the undergraduate course Forecasting Techniques. The model consists of two major, interrelated components, known as the Weather Information Processing Cycle (WIPC), and the Provider-User Relationship (FUR). The WIPC describes forecasting from the traditional scientific point of view, but contains user-focused processes such as product tailoring, dissemination, and user integration in addition to the familiar scientific processes such as data collection, analysis, and prediction. The PUR examines the business relationship between the provider of meteorological information and the user of that information. While the PUR provides a bridge for students to progress from studying basic forecasting techniques in the WIPC to examining the business relationship between weather information providers and users, there are applications of this model beyond the classroom. This paper introduces the model and shows how it can be applied to investigate the relationship between aviation weather information providers and users, using examples from the interagency Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) program

The Weather and Air Traffic Management Integration Course in the Graduate Aeronautics Program at Embry-Riddle

One year ago, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University added a new Area of Concentration (AOC) in Aviation Meteorology to the Master of Science in Aeronautics (MSA) program at the Daytona Beach, Florida campus. As part of the preparation for the start of this program, an experimental graduate seminar in Weather and Air Traffic Integration was taught over the summer, which attracted graduate students with backgrounds in commercial and private aviation, applied meteorology, and engineering physics. The purpose of this course was to introduce the students to the concept of weather and air traffic integration as it currently exists and is being planned for NextGen. The course goals are outlined below: 1. Explain the concept of weather and air traffic integration as it relates to the NextGen program. 2. Summarize the primary objectives of weather and air traffic integration in the NextGen program. 3. Summarize the objectives of several research and development projects currently being carried out to support the objectives of weather and air traffic integration in the NextGen program. 4. Summarize the main issues surrounding weather and air traffic integration in the NextGen program. 5. Complete a term paper on a topic relating to weather and air traffic integration and present its results to the class. The course began with a lecture-based review of aviation meteorology and an introduction to weather and air traffic integration as it is currently being accomplished in the NAS. This was necessary in order to bring everyone in the class up to a common level of understanding. The course then transitioned to a student-led seminar discussion format, during which time the class read and discussed papers on NextGen projects/concepts such as ADS-B, SWIM, RNAV/RNP, NNEW, CDM, and others. The final projects covered topics chosen by the students, such as CWSU History and Proposed Consolidation, TBO, CIWS, Operation of the ATCSCC\u27s National Playbook, and Enhanced Vision Systems, reflecting the diversity of student academic backgrounds and interests. The capstone of the course was a visit and tour of the Jacksonville ARTCC. The class spoke with CWSU meteorologists, TMU personnel, and briefly sat with sector controllers, all of which allowed them to see and learn firsthand about weather and air traffic integration in today\u27s NAS. This field trip complemented the academic treatment of weather and air traffic integration, and gave them a unique perspective on the NextGen projects covered in seminar. Student feedback from the seminar was very favorable, and as a result, we are considering making this course a permanent, required part of the Aviation Meteorology AOC

Guaranteed Access to Space, Kennedy Space Center/Cape Canaveral, and Climate Change

Guaranteed access to space is a major tenet of U.S. national security policy. Over the last 10 years, over two-thirds of U.S. space launches have originated from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida. During the transition of the U.S. manned space program from a public-sector operation to a mixture of public and private sector responsibilities, continued access to space from the CCAFS/KSC complex is necessary to maintain U.S. leadership in space and the continuation of Space Situational Awareness, defined as understanding and maintaining awareness of the population of objects orbiting the earth. The CCAFS/KSC installation spans a geographically complex area of nearly 600 km2, and the local climate is influenced by the presence of the Atlantic Ocean, and the Indian and Banana Rivers. The latter two water bodies result in two narrow peninsulas that run nearly parallel to each other until one reaches Merritt Island, which is the location of KSC. In addition to the area containing a major wildlife refuge, the complex has a myriad of unique structures such as the Vehicle Assembly Building, Operations and Checkout Building, Central Instrumentation Facility, Space Station Processing Facility, Vertical Processing Facility, Hypergolic Maintenance and Checkout Facility, and of course, the launch complexes themselves. NASA has expressed a great deal of concern regarding the potential impacts of global climate change on the infrastructure and operations of all its centers throughout the U.S. KSC and CCAFS present some unique challenges due to the geography and humid subtropical climate of east-central Florida. Our research group has begun collecting and analyzing atmospheric and geologic records to determine the historical occurrence frequencies of extreme events such as tropical cyclones. However, an additional approach is to examine previous occurrences of extreme events to determine the impacts that they had on the infrastructure and mission at KSC/CCAFS in order to use it as a benchmark for potential future events. The year 2004 is of particular interest due to the transit of four hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne) across the Florida peninsula and the KSC/CCAFS area. This portion of our study involves detailed mapping of the infrastructure and facilities in the complex, overlain with meteorological data from these events as recorded by the high-density observational network, and detailed locations by dollar amount of facility damage from the four storms. We seek to determine spatial patterns of systemic damage from the storms and a categorization of the spatial damage patterns by dollar thresholds. In this way we hope to develop an understanding of which portions of the complex may be the most vulnerable to future extreme events in a global climate change context, and what (if any) the national security implications would be if this complex were unavailable for launch activities for some extended period of time due to a series of extreme weather events