The Error is the Feature: how to Forecast Lightning using a Model Prediction Error

Despite the progress within the last decades, weather forecasting is still a challenging and computationally expensive task. Current satellite-based approaches to predict thunderstorms are usually based on the analysis of the observed brightness temperatures in different spectral channels and emit a warning if a critical threshold is reached. Recent progress in data science however demonstrates that machine learning can be successfully applied to many research fields in science, especially in areas dealing with large datasets. We therefore present a new approach to the problem of predicting thunderstorms based on machine learning. The core idea of our work is to use the error of two-dimensional optical flow algorithms applied to images of meteorological satellites as a feature for machine learning models. We interpret that optical flow error as an indication of convection potentially leading to thunderstorms and lightning. To factor in spatial proximity we use various manual convolution steps. We also consider effects such as the time of day or the geographic location. We train different tree classifier models as well as a neural network to predict lightning within the next few hours (called nowcasting in meteorology) based on these features. In our evaluation section we compare the predictive power of the different models and the impact of different features on the classification result. Our results show a high accuracy of 96% for predictions over the next 15 minutes which slightly decreases with increasing forecast period but still remains above 83% for forecasts of up to five hours. The high false positive rate of nearly 6% however needs further investigation to allow for an operational use of our approach.Comment: 10 pages, 7 figure

A correlated-polaron electronic propagator: open electronic dynamics beyond the Born-Oppenheimer approximation

In this work we develop a theory of correlated many-electron dynamics dressed by the presence of a finite-temperature harmonic bath. The theory is based on the ab-initio Hamiltonian, and thus well-defined apart from any phenomenological choice of collective basis states or electronic coupling model. The equation-of-motion includes some bath effects non-perturbatively, and can be used to simulate line- shapes beyond the Markovian approximation and open electronic dynamics which are subjects of renewed recent interest. Energy conversion and transport depend critically on the ratio of electron-electron coupling to bath-electron coupling, which is a fitted parameter if a phenomenological basis of many-electron states is used to develop an electronic equation of motion. Since the present work doesn't appeal to any such basis, it avoids this ambiguity. The new theory produces a level of detail beyond the adiabatic Born-Oppenheimer states, but with cost scaling like the Born-Oppenheimer approach. While developing this model we have also applied the time-convolutionless perturbation theory to correlated molecular excitations for the first time. Resonant response properties are given by the formalism without phenomenological parameters. Example propagations with a developmental code are given demonstrating the treatment of electron-correlation in absorption spectra, vibronic structure, and decay in an open system.Comment: 25 pages 7 figure

Temporal trends in the handgrip strength of 2,592,714 adults from 14 countries between 1960 and 2017: A systematic analysis

Background: Handgrip strength (HGS) is an excellent marker of functional capability and health in adults, although little is known about temporal trends in adult HGS. Objectives: The aim of this study was to systematically analyze national (country-level) temporal trends in adult HGS, and to examine relationships between national trends in adult HGS and national trends in health-related and socioeconomic/demographic indicators. Methods: Data were obtained from a systematic search of studies reporting temporal trends in HGS for adults (aged ≥20 years) and by examining national fitness datasets. Trends in mean HGS were estimated at the country-sex-age group level by best-fitting sample-weighted linear/polynomial regression models, with national and sub-regional (pooled data across geographically similar countries) trends estimated by a post-stratified population-weighting procedure. Pearson’s correlations quantified relationships between national trends in adult HGS and national trends in health-related and socioeconomic/demographic indicators. Results: Data from 10 studies/datasets were extracted to estimate trends in mean HGS for 2,592,714 adults from 12 high- and 2 upper-middle-income countries (from Asia, Europe and North America) between 1960 and 2017. National trends were few, mixed and generally negligible pre-2000, whereas most countries (75% or 9/12) experienced negligible-to-small declines ranging from an effect size of 0.05 to 0.27, or 0.6 to 6.3%, per decade post-2000. Sex- and age-related temporal differences were negligible. National trends in adult HGS were not significantly related to national trends in health and socioeconomic/demographic indicators. Conclusions: While trends in adult HGS are currently limited to 14 high- and upper-middle-income countries from 3 continents, adult HGS appears to have declined since 2000 (at least among most of the countries in this analysis), which is suggestive of corresponding declines in functional capability and health. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42013003678. KEY POINTS National (country-level) trends in adult handgrip strength (HGS) were few, mixed and generally negligible pre-2000, and generally negligible and indicated declines post-2000 Sex- and age-related temporal differences in adult HGS were negligible-to-small at the country level and negligible at the regional level National trends in adult HGS were not significantly related to national trends in health and socioeconomic/demographic indicator

Resting state correlates of subdimensions of anxious affect

Resting state fMRI may help identify markers of risk for affective disorder. Given the comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders and the heterogeneity of these disorders as defined by DSM, an important challenge is to identify alterations in resting state brain connectivity uniquely associated with distinct profiles of negative affect. The current study aimed to address this by identifying differences in brain connectivity specifically linked to cognitive and physiological profiles of anxiety, controlling for depressed affect. We adopted a two-stage multivariate approach. Hierarchical clustering was used to independently identify dimensions of negative affective style and resting state brain networks. Combining the clustering results, we examined individual differences in resting state connectivity uniquely associated with subdimensions of anxious affect, controlling for depressed affect. Physiological and cognitive subdimensions of anxious affect were identified. Physiological anxiety was associated with widespread alterations in insula connectivity, including decreased connectivity between insula subregions and between the insula and other medial frontal and subcortical networks. This is consistent with the insula facilitating communication between medial frontal and subcortical regions to enable control of physiological affective states. Meanwhile, increased connectivity within a frontoparietal-posterior cingulate cortex-precunous network was specifically associated with cognitive anxiety, potentially reflecting increased spontaneous negative cognition (e.g., worry). These findings suggest that physiological and cognitive anxiety comprise subdimensions of anxiety-related affect and reveal associated alterations in brain connectivity

Assessing the consistency of satellite-derived upper tropospheric humidity measurements

Four upper tropospheric humidity (UTH) datasets derived from satellite sounders are evaluated to assess their consistency as part of the activities for the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) water vapor assessment project. The datasets include UTH computed from brightness temperature measurements of the 183.31±1 GHz channel of the Special Sensor Microwave – Humidity (SSM/T-2), Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-B (AMSU-B), and Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and from channel 12 of the High-resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS). The four datasets are generally consistent in the interannual temporal and spatial variability of the tropics. Large positive anomalies peaked over the central equatorial Pacific region during El Niño events in the same phase with the increase of sea surface temperature (SST). Conversely, large negative anomalies were obtained during El Niño events when the tropical-domain average is taken. The weakened ascending branch of the Pacific Walker circulation in the western Pacific and the enhanced descending branches of the local Hadley circulation along the Pacific subtropics largely contributed to widespread drying areas and thus negative anomalies in the upper troposphere during El Niño events as shown in all four datasets. During a major El Niño event, UTH had higher correlations with the coincident precipitation (0.60 to 0.75) and with 200 hPa velocity potential (−0.42 to −0.64) than with SST (0.37 to 0.49). Due to differences in retrieval definitions and gridding procedures, there can be a difference of 3 %–5 % UTH between datasets on average, and larger magnitudes of anomaly values are usually observed in spatial maps of microwave UTH data. Nevertheless, the tropical-domain averaged anomalies of the datasets are close to each other with their differences being mostly less than 0.5 %, and more importantly the phases of the time series are generally consistent for variability studie

European normative values for physical fitness in children and adolescents aged 9–17 years: results from 2 779 165 Eurofit performances representing 30 countries

OBJECTIVE: To develop sex-specific and age-specific normative values for the nine Eurofit tests in European children and adolescents aged 9-17 years. METHODS: A systematic review was undertaken to identify papers that explicitly reported descriptive results for at least one of nine Eurofit tests (measuring balance, muscular strength, muscular endurance, muscular power, flexibility, speed, speed-agility and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF)) on children and adolescents. Data were included on apparently healthy (free from known disease/injury) children and adolescents aged 9-17 years. Following harmonisation for methodological variation where appropriate, pseudodata were generated using Monte Carlo simulation, with population-weighted sex-specific and age-specific normative centiles generated using the Lambda Mu Sigma (LMS) method. Sex-specific and age-specific differences were expressed as standardised differences in means, with the percentage of children and adolescents with healthy CRF estimated at the sex-age level. RESULTS: Norms were displayed as tabulated centiles and as smoothed centile curves for the nine Eurofit tests. The final dataset included 2 779 165 results on children and adolescents from 30 European countries, extracted from 98 studies. On average, 78% of boys (95% CI 72% to 85%) and 83% of girls (95% CI 71% to 96%) met the standards for healthy CRF, with the percentage meeting the standards decreasing with age. Boys performed substantially (standardised differences \u3e0.2) better than girls on muscular strength, muscular power, muscular endurance, speed-agility and CRF tests, but worse on the flexibility test. Physical fitness generally improved at a faster rate in boys than in girls, especially during the teenage years. CONCLUSION: This study provides the largest and most geographically representative sex-specific and age-specific European normative values for children and adolescents, which have utility for health and fitness screening, profiling, monitoring and surveillance

Guidelines for genetic data analysis

The IWC Scientific Committee recently adopted guidelines for quality control of DNA data. Once data have been collected, the next step is to analyse the data and make inferences that are useful for addressing practical problems in conservation and management of cetaceans. This is a complex exercise, as numerous analyses are possible and users have a wide range of choices of software programs for implementing the analyses. This paper reviews the underlying issues, illustrates application of different types of genetic data analysis to two complex management problems (involving common minke whales and humpback whales), and concludes with a number of recommendations for best practices in the analysis of population genetic data. An extensive Appendix provides a detailed review and critique of most types of analyses that are used with population genetic data for cetaceans.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Superconducting fluctuation corrections to ultrasound attenuation in layered superconductors

We consider the temperature dependence of the sound attenuation and sound velocity in layered impure metals due to superconducting fluctuations of the order parameter above the critical temperature. We obtain the dependence on material properties of these fluctuation corrections in the hydrodynamic limit, where the electron mean free path is much smaller than the wavelength of sound and where the electron collision rate is much larger than the sound frequency. For longitudinal sound propagating perpendicular to the layers, the open Fermi surface condition leads to a suppression of the divergent contributions to leading order, in contrast with the case of paraconductivity. The leading temperature dependent corrections, given by the Aslamazov-Larkin, Maki-Thompson and density of states terms, remain finite as T->Tc. Nevertheless, the sensitivity of new ultrasonic experiments on layered organic conductors should make these fluctuations effects measurable.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for PRB. Added discussion on incoherent interlayer tunneling and other small modifications suggested by referee