Can habitat surrogates predict the response of target species to landscape change?

Surrogates are commonly used for monitoring biodiversity under a wide range of scenarios. However, surrogates are not often evaluated under diverse ecological conditions, and this hinders the identification of spatial and temporal boundaries of a surrogate's relationship with its biodiversity metric, including whether a surrogate can predict biodiversity responses to environmental change. We adapted a causal framework from the medical literature and applied this framework to investigate the consistency of a well-established habitat surrogate of arboreal marsupials: hollow-bearing trees. We tested the consistency of the relationship between hollow-bearing trees and arboreal marsupials across four long-term studies (>10. years) covering different habitat types and environmental disturbance. We also tested the ability of the change in hollow-bearing trees over time to predict the change in arboreal marsupials over time. We found a somewhat consistent relationship between hollow-bearing trees and relative abundance of arboreal marsupials, but the mechanistic details of this relationship varied both by location and by species of arboreal marsupial. Similarly, the surrogate approach was not able to predict trends over time, a result likely due to differences in natural temporal variation between the surrogate and target species of interest. Our investigation demonstrates that habitat surrogates can be very useful for certain aspects of monitoring programs, but that serious limitations prevail when trying to monitor changes over time, or if information on species-specific responses is required. Our new framework can be readily applied to any biodiversity surrogate with an established mechanistic link between the surrogate and biodiversity metric of interest

Global meta-analysis reveals low consistency of biodiversity congruence relationships

Knowledge of the number and distribution of species is fundamental to biodiversity conservation efforts, but this information is lacking for the majority of species on earth. Consequently, subsets of taxa are often used as proxies for biodiversity; but this assumes that different taxa display congruent distribution patterns. Here we use a global meta-analysis to show that studies of cross-taxon congruence rarely give consistent results. Instead, species richness congruence is highest at extreme spatial scales and close to the equator, while congruence in species composition is highest at large extents and grain sizes. Studies display highest variance in cross-taxon congruence when conducted in areas with dissimilar areal extents (for species richness) or latitudes (for species composition). These results undermine the assumption that a subset of taxa can be representative of biodiversity. Therefore, researchers whose goal is to prioritize locations or actions for conservation should use data from a range of taxa

Tests of predictions associated with temporal changes in Australian bird populations

Global biodiversity loss is the cumulative result of local species declines. To combat biodiversity loss, detailed information on the temporal trends of at-risk species at local scales is needed. Here we report the results of a 13-year study of temporal change in bird occupancy in one of the most heavily modified biomes worldwide; the temperate woodlands of south-eastern Australia. We sought to determine if temporal changes in bird species were different between three broad native vegetation types (old-growth woodland, regrowth woodland and restoration plantings) and between species traits (body size, migratory status, rarity, woodland dependency, or diet). We found evidence of decline for over a quarter of all bird species for which we had sufficient data for detailed analysis (30 out of 108 species). In contrast, only 14 species increased significantly. Temporal change of birds was linked to life-history attributes, with patterns often being habitat-dependent. Nectarivores and large-bodied birds declined across all vegetation types, whereas small-bodied species increased, particularly in restoration plantings. Contrasting with patterns documented elsewhere, resident but not migratory species declined, with this trend strongest in restoration plantings. Finally, our analyses showed that, as a group, common birds tended to decline whereas rare birds tended to increase, with effects for both most pronounced in restoration plantings. Our results highlight the benefit of targeted restoration planting for some species, but also demonstrate that many common species that have long-persisted in human-dominated landscapes are experiencing severe declines. © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Philip Barton” is provided in this record*

Long-term bird colonization and turnover in restored woodlands

The long-term effectiveness of restored areas for biodiversity is poorly known for the majority of restored ecosystems worldwide. We quantified temporal changes in bird occurrence in restoration plantings of different ages and geometries, and compared observed patterns with a reference dataset from woodland remnants on the same farms as our plantings. Over time, bird species richness remained unchanged in spring but exhibited modest increases in winter. We found that wider plantings supported significantly greater bird species richness in spring and winter than narrow plantings. There was no evidence of a significant interaction between planting width and time. We recorded major temporal changes in the occurrence of a range of individual species that indicated a clear turnover of species as plantings matured. Our results further revealed marked differences in individual species occurrence between plantings and woodland remnants. Life-history attributes associated with temporal changes in the bird assemblage were most apparent in winter survey data, and included diet, foraging and nesting patterns, movement behaviour (e.g. migratory vs. dispersive), and body size. Differences in bird assemblages between plantings of different ages suggest that it is important that farms support a range of age classes of planted woodland, if the aim is to maximize the number of native bird species in restored areas. Our data also suggest that changes in the bird species occupying plantings of different ages can be anticipated in a broadly predictable way based on planting geometry (especially width) and key life-history attributes, particularly movement patterns and habitat and diet specialisation. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. **Please note that there are multiple authors for this article therefore only the name of the first 5 including Federation University Australia affiliate “Philip Barton” is provided in this record*

A preliminary study of extended magnetic field structures in the ionosphere

Several plasma phenomena which are to be expected around a magnet in LEO were identified and analyzed qualitatively. The ASTROMAG cusp magnet will create an extended field whose strength drops to the ambient level over a scale length of approx. 15 m; the combined field has a complex topology with ring nulls and open and closed field lines. The entire configuration is moving through the partially ionized F-layer of the ionosphere at a speed slow compared to the local Alfven speed but fast compared to the ion sound speed. The ambient plasma crosses the extended field structure in a time short compared to the ion Larmor period yet long relative to the electron Larmor period. Thus, electrons behave as a magnetized fluid while ions move ballistically until reflected from higher fields near the cusp. Since the Debye length is short compared to the field scale length, an electrostatic shock-like structure forms to equilibrate the flows and achieve quasi-neutrality. The ambient plasma will be excluded from a cavity near the magnet. The size and nature of the strong interaction region in which the magnet significantly perturbs the ambient flow were determined by studying ion orbits numerically. Lecture viewgraphs summarizing these results are presented

Visualization of species pairwise associations: A case study of surrogacy in bird assemblages

Quantifying and visualizing species associations are important to many areas of ecology and conservation biology. Species networks are one way to analyze species associations, with a growing number of applications such as food webs, nesting webs, plant-animal mutualisms, and interlinked extinctions. We present a new method for assessing and visualizing patterns of co-occurrence of species. The method depicts interactions and associations in an analogous way with existing network diagrams for studying pollination and trophic interactions, but adds the assessment of sign, strength, and direction of the associations. This provides a distinct advantage over existing methods of quantifying and visualizing co-occurrence. We demonstrate the utility of our new approach by showing differences in associations among woodland bird species found in different habitats and by illustrating the way these can be interpreted in terms of underlying ecological mechanisms. Our new method is computationally feasible for large assemblages and provides readily interpretable effects with standard errors. It has wide applications for quantifying species associations within ecological communities, examining questions about particular species that occur with others, and how their associations can determine the structure and composition of communities

Academic Performance of Students with Emotional and Behavioral Disorders Served in a Self-Contained Setting

This study describes the academic, social, and behavioral performance of elementary and secondary students with emotional and behavioral disorders (EBD) receiving services in a self-contained school for students with serious behavior problems, with an emphasis on how school adjustment and problem behavior patterns predict academic performance. Results revealed that elementary and secondary group scores were well below the 25th percentile on reading, math, and written expression measures. Further, a seven variable model representing academic, social, and behavioral domains was able to differentiate between age groups explaining 54% of the variance and correctly classifying 78.26% (n = 18) of the elementary students and 84.21% (n = 16) of the secondary students. Findings also suggested that behavioral variables (e.g., school adjustment, externalizing, and internalizing) were predictive of broad reading and broad written expression scores, with school adjustment (a protective factor) accounting for the most variance in the three-variable model. Limitations and recommendations for future research are addressed

Patient characteristics can influence the incidence of perioperative microemboli during carotid artery interventions

Purpose. Perioperative cerebral microembolization demonstrated on diffusion-weighted MRI (DWI) can occur following carotid endarterectomy (CEA) and carotid artery stenting (CAS). We sought to explore potential risk factors for this in the large patient cohort. Methods. We reviewed a 6-year consecutive patient cohort that received either CEA or CAS, and perioperative DWI evaluations. Results. 303 patients were reviewed, and 56 (19.4%) patients were found to have perioperative microemboli. The incidence was higher among patients who received CAS (P &lt; 0.001). Hypertension (P = 0.03), smoking (P = 0.001), and a history of transient ischemic attacks (P = 0.04) were risk factors for microembolization. The risk was higher among CEA patients with obesity (P = 0.05), and among CAS patients with coronary artery disease (P = 0.03). Conclusion. Specific patient populations are likely more prone to develop perioperative cerebral microemboli following carotid intervention. Continued risk stratification may help decrease future perioperative cerebral microembolization rates.</jats:p

Patterns of Change Over Time in Knee Bone Shape Are Associated with Sex.

BackgroundKnee osteoarthritis (OA) is more common in females than in males; however, the biological mechanisms for the difference in sex in patients with knee OA are not well understood. Knee shape is associated with OA and with sex, but the patterns of change in the bone's shape over time and their relation to sex and OA are unknown and may help inform how sex is associated with shape and OA and whether the effect is exerted early or later in life.Questions/purposes (1) Does knee shape segregate stably into different groups of trajectories of change (groups of knees that share similar patterns of changes in bone shape over time)? (2) Do females and males have different trajectories of bone shape changes? (3) Is radiographic OA at baseline associated with trajectories of bone shape changes?MethodsWe used data collected from the NIH-funded Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) to evaluate a cohort of people aged 45 to 79 years at baseline who had either symptomatic knee OA or were at high risk of having it. The OAI cohort included 4796 participants (58% females; n = 2804) at baseline who either had symptomatic knee OA (defined as having radiographic tibiofemoral knee OA and answering positively to the question "have you had pain, aching or stiffness around the knee on most days for at least one month during the past 12 months") or were at high risk of symptomatic knee OA (defined as having knee symptoms during the prior 12 months along with any of the following: overweight; knee injury; knee surgery other than replacement; family history of total knee replacement for OA; presence of Heberden's nodes; daily knee bending activity) or were part of a small nonexposed subcohort. From these participants, we limited the eligible group to those with radiographs available and read at baseline, 2 years, and 4 years, and randomly selected participants from each OAI subcohort in a manner to enrich representation in the study of the progression and nonexposed subcohorts, which were smaller in number than the OA incidence subcohort. From these patients, we randomly sampled 473 knees with radiographs available at baseline, 2 years, and 4 years. We outlined the shape of the distal femur and proximal tibia on radiographs at all three timepoints using statistical shape modelling. Five modes (each mode represents a particular type of knee bone shape variation) were derived for the proximal tibia and distal femur's shape, accounting for 78% of the total variance in shape. Group-based trajectory modelling (a statistical approach to identify the clusters of participants following a similar progression of change of bone shape over time, that is, trajectory group) was used to identify distinctive patterns of change in the bone shape for each mode. We examined the association of sex and radiographic OA at baseline with the trajectories of each bone shape mode using a multivariable polytomous regression model while adjusting for age, BMI, and race.ResultsKnee bone shape change trajectories segregated stably into different groups. In all modes, three distinct trajectory groups were derived, with the mean posterior probabilities (a measure of an individual's probability of being in a particular group and often used to characterize how well the trajectory model is working to describe the population) ranging from 84% to 99%, indicating excellent model fitting. For most of the modes of both the femur and tibia, the intercepts for the three trajectory groups were different; however, the rates of change were generally similar in each mode. Females and males had different trajectories of bone shape change. For Mode 1 in the femur, females were more likely to be in trajectory Groups 3 (odds ratio 30.2 [95% CI 12.2 to 75.0]; p &lt; 0.001) and 2 than males (OR 4.1 [95% CI 2.3 to 7.1]; p &lt; 0.001); thus, females had increased depth of the intercondylar fossa and broader shaft width relative to epicondylar width compared with males. For Mode 1 in the tibia, females were less likely to be in trajectory Group 2 (OR 0.5 [95% CI 0.3 to 0.9]; p = 0.01) than males (that is, knees of females were less likely to display superior elevation of tibial plateau or decreased shaft width relative to head width). Radiographic OA at baseline was associated with specific shape-change trajectory groups. For Mode 1 in the femur, knees with OA were less likely to be in trajectory Groups 3 (OR 0.4 [95% CI 0.2 to 0.8]; p = 0.008) and 2 (OR 0.6 [95% CI 0.3 to 1.0]; p = 0.03) than knees without OA; thus, knees with OA had decreased depth of the intercondylar fossa and narrower shaft width relative to epicondylar width compared with knees without OA. For Mode 1 in the tibia, knees with OA were not associated with trajectory.ConclusionsThe shapes of the distal femur and proximal tibia did not change much over time. Sex and baseline knee radiographic OA status are associated with the trajectory of change in the bone's shape, suggesting that both may contribute earlier in life to the associations among trajectories observed in older individuals. Future studies might explore sex-related bone shape change earlier in life to help determine when the sex-specific shapes arise and also the degree to which these sex-related shapes are alterable by injury or other events.Level of evidenceLevel III, prognostic study