Hvor mye koster ukoordinert klimapolitikk? : To modeller – to svar

Scenarioer er det mest brukte verktøyet for å forstå hvordan verden kan gjennomføre en overgang til et lavutslippssamfunn. Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) har gjort et utvalg av slike "klimascenarioer" tilgjengelige for allmennheten. Håpet er at disse scenarioene skal gjøre det enklere for sentralbanker, finanstilsyn og aktører i finansmarkedet å ha et felles utgangspunkt for diskusjon av konsekvensene av klimapolitikk. En innsikt fra slike scenarioer er at nødvendige tiltak blir dyrere hvis tiltakene ikke koordineres på tvers av land. Med ukoordinert politikk øker også usikkerheten om den økonomiske kostnaden betydelig. Det ser vi blant annet ved at ulike modeller gir veldig forskjellige svar på hvor høy karbonpris som skal til for å nå klimamålene. De mest pessimistiske framskrivningene innebærer et betydelig fall i samlet produksjon målt ved BNP.publishedVersio

An investigation of the Norwegian consumption function. Income distribution and wealth effects

Since the financial crisis, Norwegian private consumption has fallen as a share of household disposable income. This weak development in consumption was not predicted by the contemporaneous consumption models and led to a “structural breakdown” of these models. This thesis will attempt to build a new model for aggregate consumption that is better able to explain the developments since the financial crisis. This is done by using cointegration analysis to estimate a long run relationship and then include this in an error correction model for private consumption. With a basis in the current consumption function in Statistic Norway’s KVARTS model, the paper demonstrates the breakdown of the incumbent consumption function and conducts two separate analyses into possible explanations for the breakdown. A first finding is that the income distribution, measured by a Gini coefficient or the wage share, does not seem to affect household consumption on the aggregate level. In another exercise the wealth variable present in the current model is split into different components. In the long run, including net housing wealth and net financial wealth separately seems to improve the model. Financial wealth is a larger determinant of household consumption in the long run than housing wealth. In the short run, the degree of liquidity affects the effect of financial wealth on consumption, while controlling for short run dynamics of debt does not improve the model

An investigation of the Norwegian consumption function. Income distribution and wealth effects

Since the financial crisis, Norwegian private consumption has fallen as a share of household disposable income. This weak development in consumption was not predicted by the contemporaneous consumption models and led to a “structural breakdown” of these models. This thesis will attempt to build a new model for aggregate consumption that is better able to explain the developments since the financial crisis. This is done by using cointegration analysis to estimate a long run relationship and then include this in an error correction model for private consumption. With a basis in the current consumption function in Statistic Norway’s KVARTS model, the paper demonstrates the breakdown of the incumbent consumption function and conducts two separate analyses into possible explanations for the breakdown. A first finding is that the income distribution, measured by a Gini coefficient or the wage share, does not seem to affect household consumption on the aggregate level. In another exercise the wealth variable present in the current model is split into different components. In the long run, including net housing wealth and net financial wealth separately seems to improve the model. Financial wealth is a larger determinant of household consumption in the long run than housing wealth. In the short run, the degree of liquidity affects the effect of financial wealth on consumption, while controlling for short run dynamics of debt does not improve the model.publishedVersio

An investigation of the Norwegian consumption function : income distribution and wealth effects

Since the financial crisis, Norwegian private consumption has fallen as a share of disposable income. This weak development in consumption was not predicted by the contemporaneous consumption models and led to a “structural breakdown” of these models. This master’s thesis will attempt to build a new model for aggregate consumption that is better able to explain the developments since the financial crisis. This is done by using cointegration analysis to estimate a long run relationship and then include this in an error correction model for private consumption. With a basis in the current consumption function in Statistic Norway’s KVARTS model, I first show the breakdown of the contemporaneous model and then conduct two separate analyses into possible explanations for the breakdown. First, I find that the income distribution, measured by a Gini coefficient or the wage share, do not seem to affect household consumption on the aggregate level. Second, I split the wealth variable present in the current model into different components. In the long run, including net housing wealth and net financial wealth separately seems to improve the model. Financial wealth is a larger determinant of household consumption in the long run than housing wealth. In the short run, the degree of liquidity affects the effect of financial wealth on consumption, while controlling for short run dynamics of debt does not improve the model.nhhma

Finding DORY

This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy, DORY is used to identify the underlying trends in the main macro variables in Norway. DORY has been gradually developed over the last couple of years and has now been estimated using state of the art Bayesian estimation techniques.publishedVersio

Finding DORY

This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy, DORY is used to identify the underlying trends in the main macro variables in Norway. DORY has been gradually developed over the last couple of years and has now been estimated using state of the art Bayesian estimation techniques