An evaluation of reanalysis products for Alaska to facilitate climate impact studies

Thesis (M.S.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2014.Alaska is experiencing effects of global climate change due, in large part, to the positive feedback mechanisms associated with polar amplification. The major risk factors include loss of sea ice, glaciers, thawing permafrost, increased wildfires, and ocean acidification. Reanalyses, which are weather forecast models that assimilate observations, are integral to understanding mechanisms of Alaska's past climate and to help calibrate future modeling efforts. This study evaluates five reanalyses using monthly gridded datasets of temperature, precipitation, and snowwater equivalent, as well as daily station data of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, and snow depth across six climate regions in Alaska, and at eight stations from 1979-2009. The reanalyses evaluated in this study include the: NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (NCEP-R1), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), ERA-Interim, and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). MERRA was the top-performing reanalysis for the station-based assessment, has the lowest statewide precipitation bias, and is the most reliable model for snow-water equivalent. NARR and ERA-Interim have the lowest near-surface air temperature biases across Alaska. The quality of reanalysis data varies by region, season, and variable. This thesis provides guidance for reanalysis users to make informed decisions.Chapter 1. Alaska’s climate and modeling needs -- 1.1. Alaska’s changing climate -- 1.2. Previous usage of reanalysis for Alaska -- 1.3. Project goals -- Chapter 2. Meteorological surface observations and reanalysis data -- 2.1. Meteorological surface observations -- 2.1.1. Surface data -- 2.1.2. Gridded temperature and precipitation verification datasets -- 2.1.3. Gridded snow verification dataset -- 2.2. Reanalysis models and topography -- 2.2.1. NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis -- 2.2.2. North American Regional Reanalysis -- 2.2.3. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis -- 2.2.4. ERA-Interim Reanalysis -- 2.2.5. Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications -- 2.2.6. Model topography -- 2.3. Known dataset problems -- Chapter 3. A regional assessment of reanalyses for Alaska -- 3.1. Introduction -- 3.2. Methods -- 3.2.1. Climate divisions -- 3.2.2. Reanalysis data preparation -- 3.3. Comparison of reanalysis products to observed near-surface air temperatures -- 3.3.1. Temperature verification dataset -- 3.3.2. Near-surface air temperatures -- 3.4. Comparison of reanalysis products to observed precipitation -- 3.4.1. Precipitation verification dataset -- 3.4.2. Precipitation -- 3.5. Comparison of reanalysis products to observed snow-water equivalent -- 3.5.1. Snow verification dataset -- 3.5.2. Snow-water equivalent -- 3.6. Regional synthesis -- Chapter 4. A station-based assessment of reanalyses for Alaska -- 4.1. Introduction -- 4.2. Barrow, Alaska -- 4.3. Nome, Alaska -- 4.4. Bethel, Alaska -- 4.5. McGrath, Alaska -- 4.6. Fairbanks, Alaska -- 4.7. King Salmon, Alaska -- 4.8. Anchorage, Alaska -- 4.9. Juneau, Alaska -- 4.10. Conclusions -- 4.10.1. Summary of model performance -- 4.10.2. Generalizations of biases -- Chapter 5. Guidance for use of reanalysis in Alaska -- 5.1. Synthesizing the regional and station assessments -- 5.2. FAQ -- 5.3. Data access -- Chapter 6. Summary -- Chapter 7. References -- Appendix

Emergent impacts of rapidly changing climate extremes in Alaska

Thesis (Ph.D.) University of Alaska Fairbanks, 2018The frequency and intensity of certain extreme weather events in Alaska are increasing, largely due to climate warming from greenhouse gas emissions. Future projections indicate that these trends will continue, potentially leading to billions of dollars in climate-related damages this century. Expected damages arise from increases in extreme precipitation, severe wildfire, altered ocean chemistry, land subsidence from permafrost thaw, and coastal erosion. This dissertation applies new downscaled reanalysis and climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to enhance current understanding of climate extremes in Alaska. Model output is analyzed for a historical period (1981-2010) and three projected periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) using representative concentration pathway 8.5. Unprecedented heat and precipitation are expected to occur when compared to the historical period. Maximum 1-day and consecutive 5-day precipitation amounts are expected to increase by 53% and 50%, respectively, and the number of summer days per year (Tmax > 25°C) increases from a statewide average of 1.5 from 1981-2010 to 29.7 for 2071-2100. Major alterations to the landscape of Alaska are anticipated due to a decreasing frequency of freezing temperatures. Growing season length extends by 48-87 days by 2071-2100 with the largest changes in northern Alaska. In contrast, projections indicate a reduced snow season length statewide and many locations in southwest Alaska no longer have continuous winter snow cover. Changes to these metrics indicate that a climate-warming signal emerges from the historical inter-annual variability, meaning that future distributions are entirely outside of those previously observed. The largest changes to extremes may be avoided by following a lower emissions trajectory, which would reduce the impacts and associated costs to maintain infrastructure and human health.Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy1. Introduction -- 2. Projections of twenty-first-century climate extremes for Alaska via dynamical downscaling and quantile mapping -- 3. agro-climate projections for a warming Alaska -- 4. Anticipated changes to the snow season in Alaska: elevation dependency, timing and extremes -- 5. Conclusion

Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.The National Science Foundation (#OIA-1753748), the State of Alaska, the United States Geological Survey (G17AC00363), and the Alaska Climate Adaptation Science Center (G17AC00213) provided support for this study. NOAA supported this work through grants #NA16OAR4310162 (R.T., J.E.W., A.Y.) and #NA16OAR4310142 (U.S.B., P.A.B.)Ye

Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors

Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) above freezing and heavy precipitation events. Historical (1981–2020) values of MAAT and summer precipitation (JJA PCPT) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) were compared to mid-century (2021–2060) and late-century (2061–2100) downscaled climate model projections across Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve (GAAR), Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA), and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). ERA5 showed that all locations historically had MAAT values below freezing, but all three parks were warming significantly (0.3–0.6 °C per decade). Observed trends of MAAT from 18 stations showed warming trends with 11 of the 18 being significant at the 95% confidence level using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Road corridor values are given for the: (1) proposed Ambler Road through GAAR, (2) Denali Park Road in DENA, and (3) McCarthy Road in WRST. Elevated risk from MAAT was projected in the mid-century period for the Denali Park Road and McCarthy Road and across all three park road corridors in the late-century period; elevated risk from JJA PCPT was projected in all periods for all road corridors

Climate Indicators of Landslide Risks on Alaska National Park Road Corridors

Landslides along road corridors in Alaska national parks pose threats to public safety, visitor access, subsistence activities, and result in costly remediation of damaged infrastructure. Landslide risk in these areas, which contain near-surface permafrost, is associated with mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) above freezing and heavy precipitation events. Historical (1981–2020) values of MAAT and summer precipitation (JJA PCPT) from the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Reading, UK) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) were compared to mid-century (2021–2060) and late-century (2061–2100) downscaled climate model projections across Gates of the Arctic National Park and Preserve (GAAR), Denali National Park and Preserve (DENA), and Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve (WRST). ERA5 showed that all locations historically had MAAT values below freezing, but all three parks were warming significantly (0.3–0.6 °C per decade). Observed trends of MAAT from 18 stations showed warming trends with 11 of the 18 being significant at the 95% confidence level using the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test. Road corridor values are given for the: (1) proposed Ambler Road through GAAR, (2) Denali Park Road in DENA, and (3) McCarthy Road in WRST. Elevated risk from MAAT was projected in the mid-century period for the Denali Park Road and McCarthy Road and across all three park road corridors in the late-century period; elevated risk from JJA PCPT was projected in all periods for all road corridors

The Arctic

International audienc

State of the climate in 2022: introduction

Earth’s global climate system is vast, complex, and intricately interrelated. Many areas are influenced by global-scale phenomena, including the “triple dip” La Niña conditions that prevailed in the eastern Pacific Ocean nearly continuously from mid-2020 through all of 2022; by regional phenomena such as the positive winter and summer North Atlantic Oscillation that impacted weather in parts the Northern Hemisphere and the negative Indian Ocean dipole that impacted weather in parts of the Southern Hemisphere; and by more localized systems such as high-pressure heat domes that caused extreme heat in different areas of the world. Underlying all these natural short-term variabilities are long-term climate trends due to continuous increases since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in the atmospheric concentrations of Earth’s major greenhouse gases.In 2022, the annual global average carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere rose to 417.1±0.1 ppm, which is 50% greater than the pre-industrial level. Global mean tropospheric methane abundance was 165% higher than its pre-industrial level, and nitrous oxide was 24% higher. All three gases set new record-high atmospheric concentration levels in 2022.Sea-surface temperature patterns in the tropical Pacific characteristic of La Niña and attendant atmospheric patterns tend to mitigate atmospheric heat gain at the global scale, but the annual global surface temperature across land and oceans was still among the six highest in records dating as far back as the mid-1800s. It was the warmest La Niña year on record. Many areas observed record or near-record heat. Europe as a whole observed its second-warmest year on record, with sixteen individual countries observing record warmth at the national scale. Records were shattered across the continent during the summer months as heatwaves plagued the region. On 18 July, 104 stations in France broke their all-time records. One day later, England recorded a temperature of 40°C for the first time ever. China experienced its second-warmest year and warmest summer on record. In the Southern Hemisphere, the average temperature across New Zealand reached a record high for the second year in a row. While Australia’s annual temperature was slightly below the 1991–2020 average, Onslow Airport in Western Australia reached 50.7°C on 13 January, equaling Australia's highest temperature on record.While fewer in number and locations than record-high temperatures, record cold was also observed during the year. Southern Africa had its coldest August on record, with minimum temperatures as much as 5°C below normal over Angola, western Zambia, and northern Namibia. Cold outbreaks in the first half of December led to many record-low daily minimum temperature records in eastern Australia.The effects of rising temperatures and extreme heat were apparent across the Northern Hemisphere, where snow-cover extent by June 2022 was the third smallest in the 56-year record, and the seasonal duration of lake ice cover was the fourth shortest since 1980. More frequent and intense heatwaves contributed to the second-greatest average mass balance loss for Alpine glaciers around the world since the start of the record in 1970. Glaciers in the Swiss Alps lost a record 6% of their volume. In South America, the combination of drought and heat left many central Andean glaciers snow free by mid-summer in early 2022; glacial ice has a much lower albedo than snow, leading to accelerated heating of the glacier. Across the global cryosphere, permafrost temperatures continued to reach record highs at many high-latitude and mountain locations.In the high northern latitudes, the annual surface-air temperature across the Arctic was the fifth highest in the 123-year record. The seasonal Arctic minimum sea-ice extent, typically reached in September, was the 11th-smallest in the 43-year record; however, the amount of multiyear ice—ice that survives at least one summer melt season—remaining in the Arctic continued to decline. Since 2012, the Arctic has been nearly devoid of ice more than four years old.In Antarctica, an unusually large amount of snow and ice fell over the continent in 2022 due to several landfalling atmospheric rivers, which contributed to the highest annual surface mass balance, 15% to 16% above the 1991–2020 normal, since the start of two reanalyses records dating to 1980. It was the second-warmest year on record for all five of the long-term staffed weather stations on the Antarctic Peninsula. In East Antarctica, a heatwave event led to a new all-time record-high temperature of −9.4°C—44°C above the March average—on 18 March at Dome C. This was followed by the collapse of the critically unstable Conger Ice Shelf. More than 100 daily low sea-ice extent and sea-ice area records were set in 2022, including two new all-time annual record lows in net sea-ice extent and area in February.Across the world’s oceans, global mean sea level was record high for the 11th consecutive year, reaching 101.2 mm above the 1993 average when satellite altimetry measurements began, an increase of 3.3±0.7 over 2021. Globally-averaged ocean heat content was also record high in 2022, while the global sea-surface temperature was the sixth highest on record, equal with 2018. Approximately 58% of the ocean surface experienced at least one marine heatwave in 2022. In the Bay of Plenty, New Zealand’s longest continuous marine heatwave was recorded.A total of 85 named tropical storms were observed during the Northern and Southern Hemisphere storm seasons, close to the 1991–2020 average of 87. There were three Category 5 tropical cyclones across the globe—two in the western North Pacific and one in the North Atlantic. This was the fewest Category 5 storms globally since 2017. Globally, the accumulated cyclone energy was the lowest since reliable records began in 1981. Regardless, some storms caused massive damage. In the North Atlantic, Hurricane Fiona became the most intense and most destructive tropical or post-tropical cyclone in Atlantic Canada’s history, while major Hurricane Ian killed more than 100 people and became the third costliest disaster in the United States, causing damage estimated at $113 billion U.S. dollars. In the South Indian Ocean, Tropical Cyclone Batsirai dropped 2044 mm of rain at Commerson Crater in Réunion. The storm also impacted Madagascar, where 121 fatalities were reported.As is typical, some areas around the world were notably dry in 2022 and some were notably wet. In August, record high areas of land across the globe (6.2%) were experiencing extreme drought. Overall, 29% of land experienced moderate or worse categories of drought during the year. The largest drought footprint in the contiguous United States since 2012 (63%) was observed in late October. The record-breaking megadrought of central Chile continued in its 13th consecutive year, and 80-year record-low river levels in northern Argentina and Paraguay disrupted fluvial transport. In China, the Yangtze River reached record-low values. Much of equatorial eastern Africa had five consecutive below-normal rainy seasons by the end of 2022, with some areas receiving record-low precipitation totals for the year. This ongoing 2.5-year drought is the most extensive and persistent drought event in decades, and led to crop failure, millions of livestock deaths, water scarcity, and inflated prices for staple food items.In South Asia, Pakistan received around three times its normal volume of monsoon precipitation in August, with some regions receiving up to eight times their expected monthly totals. Resulting floods affected over 30 million people, caused over 1700 fatalities, led to major crop and property losses, and was recorded as one of the world’s costliest natural disasters of all time. Near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Petrópolis received 530 mm in 24 hours on 15 February, about 2.5 times the monthly February average, leading to the worst disaster in the city since 1931 with over 230 fatalities.On 14–15 January, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai submarine volcano in the South Pacific erupted multiple times. The injection of water into the atmosphere was unprecedented in both magnitude—far exceeding any previous values in the 17-year satellite record—and altitude as it penetrated into the mesosphere. The amount of water injected into the stratosphere is estimated to be 146±5 Terragrams, or ∼10% of the total amount in the stratosphere. It may take several years for the water plume to dissipate, and it is currently unknown whether this eruption will have any long-term climate effect