How does over-squashing affect the power of GNNs?

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are the state-of-the-art model for machine learning on graph-structured data. The most popular class of GNNs operate by exchanging information between adjacent nodes, and are known as Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). Given their widespread use, understanding the expressive power of MPNNs is a key question. However, existing results typically consider settings with uninformative node features. In this paper, we provide a rigorous analysis to determine which function classes of node features can be learned by an MPNN of a given capacity. We do so by measuring the level of pairwise interactions between nodes that MPNNs allow for. This measure provides a novel quantitative characterization of the so-called over-squashing effect, which is observed to occur when a large volume of messages is aggregated into fixed-size vectors. Using our measure, we prove that, to guarantee sufficient communication between pairs of nodes, the capacity of the MPNN must be large enough, depending on properties of the input graph structure, such as commute times. For many relevant scenarios, our analysis results in impossibility statements in practice, showing that over-squashing hinders the expressive power of MPNNs. We validate our theoretical findings through extensive controlled experiments and ablation studies

Serious mental health diagnoses in children on the child protection register: a record linkage study.

Children with experience of maltreatment, abuse or neglect are known to have a higher prevalence of poor mental health. Child Protection Services identify children most at risk of harm and in need of intervention. Mental healthcare usage in this population is not well understood as registration data is not routinely linked to health records. We undertook data linkage to describe the population on the register, their mental healthcare usage and to calculate age- and sex-specific incidence rates of mental health outcomes. We analysed records from the Aberdeen City Council Child Protection Register and for mental health prescribing and referrals to child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS) for the NHS Grampian region between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2022. We identified 1,498 individuals with a Child Protection Register registration, of which 70% were successfully matched to health records. 20% of registrations occurred before birth and the median age of registration was 3 years. 10.1% of children with a registration ever received a mental health prescription, 5.1% for treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder and 1.7% for treatment of depression. 18.9% received a referral to specialist outpatient Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services. Age- and sex- standardised incidence rates for mental health prescribing and referrals are higher for children with a child protection registration compared to the general population. Children identified as being at significant risk of harm and involved with child protection services are at greater risk of seeking or receiving professional mental health support than their peers. Clinical services should investigate additional ways to support this population’s mental well-being as a priority. Efforts to reduce the exposure of children to potentially harmful environments at a societal level should also be pursued

Protection from the 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza by an Antibody from Combinatorial Survivor-Based Libraries

Influenza viruses elude immune responses and antiviral chemotherapeutics through genetic drift and reassortment. As a result, the development of new strategies that attack a highly conserved viral function to prevent and/or treat influenza infection is being pursued. Such novel broadly acting antiviral therapies would be less susceptible to virus escape and provide a long lasting solution to the evolving virus challenge. Here we report the in vitro and in vivo activity of a human monoclonal antibody (A06) against two isolates of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza virus. This antibody, which was obtained from a combinatorial library derived from a survivor of highly pathogenic H5N1 infection, neutralizes H5N1, seasonal H1N1 and 2009 “Swine” H1N1 pandemic influenza in vitro with similar potency and is capable of preventing and treating 2009 H1N1 influenza infection in murine models of disease. These results demonstrate broad activity of the A06 antibody and its utility as an anti-influenza treatment option, even against newly evolved influenza strains to which there is limited immunity in the general population

Characterization of Oseltamivir-Resistant 2009 H1N1 Pandemic Influenza A Viruses

Influenza viruses resistant to antiviral drugs emerge frequently. Not surprisingly, the widespread treatment in many countries of patients infected with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) viruses with the neuraminidase (NA) inhibitors oseltamivir and zanamivir has led to the emergence of pandemic strains resistant to these drugs. Sporadic cases of pandemic influenza have been associated with mutant viruses possessing a histidine-to-tyrosine substitution at position 274 (H274Y) in the NA, a mutation known to be responsible for oseltamivir resistance. Here, we characterized in vitro and in vivo properties of two pairs of oseltaimivir-sensitive and -resistant (possessing the NA H274Y substitution) 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses isolated in different parts of the world. An in vitro NA inhibition assay confirmed that the NA H274Y substitution confers oseltamivir resistance to 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses. In mouse lungs, we found no significant difference in replication between oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant viruses. In the lungs of mice treated with oseltamivir or even zanamivir, 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses with the NA H274Y substitution replicated efficiently. Pathological analysis revealed that the pathogenicities of the oseltamivir-resistant viruses were comparable to those of their oseltamivir-sensitive counterparts in ferrets. Further, the oseltamivir-resistant viruses transmitted between ferrets as efficiently as their oseltamivir-sensitive counterparts. Collectively, these data indicate that oseltamivir-resistant 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses with the NA H274Y substitution were comparable to their oseltamivir-sensitive counterparts in their pathogenicity and transmissibility in animal models. Our findings highlight the possibility that NA H274Y-possessing oseltamivir-resistant 2009 H1N1 pandemic viruses could supersede oseltamivir-sensitive viruses, as occurred with seasonal H1N1 viruses

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant

Hospital admission and emergency care attendance risk for SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) compared with alpha (B.1.1.7) variants of concern: a cohort study

Background: The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes. Methods: This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status. Findings: Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low. Interpretation: This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant. Funding: Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in a UK university identifies dynamics of transmission

AbstractUnderstanding SARS-CoV-2 transmission in higher education settings is important to limit spread between students, and into at-risk populations. In this study, we sequenced 482 SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the University of Cambridge from 5 October to 6 December 2020. We perform a detailed phylogenetic comparison with 972 isolates from the surrounding community, complemented with epidemiological and contact tracing data, to determine transmission dynamics. We observe limited viral introductions into the university; the majority of student cases were linked to a single genetic cluster, likely following social gatherings at a venue outside the university. We identify considerable onward transmission associated with student accommodation and courses; this was effectively contained using local infection control measures and following a national lockdown. Transmission clusters were largely segregated within the university or the community. Our study highlights key determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and effective interventions in a higher education setting that will inform public health policy during pandemics.</jats:p

Changes in symptomatology, reinfection, and transmissibility associated with the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7: an ecological study

Background The SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 was first identified in December, 2020, in England. We aimed to investigate whether increases in the proportion of infections with this variant are associated with differences in symptoms or disease course, reinfection rates, or transmissibility. Methods We did an ecological study to examine the association between the regional proportion of infections with the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant and reported symptoms, disease course, rates of reinfection, and transmissibility. Data on types and duration of symptoms were obtained from longitudinal reports from users of the COVID Symptom Study app who reported a positive test for COVID-19 between Sept 28 and Dec 27, 2020 (during which the prevalence of B.1.1.7 increased most notably in parts of the UK). From this dataset, we also estimated the frequency of possible reinfection, defined as the presence of two reported positive tests separated by more than 90 days with a period of reporting no symptoms for more than 7 days before the second positive test. The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections with the B.1.1.7 variant across the UK was estimated with use of genomic data from the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium and data from Public Health England on spike-gene target failure (a non-specific indicator of the B.1.1.7 variant) in community cases in England. We used linear regression to examine the association between reported symptoms and proportion of B.1.1.7. We assessed the Spearman correlation between the proportion of B.1.1.7 cases and number of reinfections over time, and between the number of positive tests and reinfections. We estimated incidence for B.1.1.7 and previous variants, and compared the effective reproduction number, Rt, for the two incidence estimates. Findings From Sept 28 to Dec 27, 2020, positive COVID-19 tests were reported by 36 920 COVID Symptom Study app users whose region was known and who reported as healthy on app sign-up. We found no changes in reported symptoms or disease duration associated with B.1.1.7. For the same period, possible reinfections were identified in 249 (0·7% [95% CI 0·6–0·8]) of 36 509 app users who reported a positive swab test before Oct 1, 2020, but there was no evidence that the frequency of reinfections was higher for the B.1.1.7 variant than for pre-existing variants. Reinfection occurrences were more positively correlated with the overall regional rise in cases (Spearman correlation 0·56–0·69 for South East, London, and East of England) than with the regional increase in the proportion of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant (Spearman correlation 0·38–0·56 in the same regions), suggesting B.1.1.7 does not substantially alter the risk of reinfection. We found a multiplicative increase in the Rt of B.1.1.7 by a factor of 1·35 (95% CI 1·02–1·69) relative to pre-existing variants. However, Rt fell below 1 during regional and national lockdowns, even in regions with high proportions of infections with the B.1.1.7 variant. Interpretation The lack of change in symptoms identified in this study indicates that existing testing and surveillance infrastructure do not need to change specifically for the B.1.1.7 variant. In addition, given that there was no apparent increase in the reinfection rate, vaccines are likely to remain effective against the B.1.1.7 variant. Funding Zoe Global, Department of Health (UK), Wellcome Trust, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (UK), National Institute for Health Research (UK), Medical Research Council (UK), Alzheimer's Society

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16–20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant