Data-adaptive longitudinal model selection in causal inference with collaborative targeted minimum loss-based estimation

R code disponible : https://www.mireilleschnitzer.com/collaborative-longitudinal-tmle.htmlCausal inference methods have been developed for longitudinal observationalstudy designs where confounding is thought to occur over time. In particular,one may estimate and contrast the population mean counterfactual outcomeunder specific exposure patterns. In such contexts, confounders of thelongitudinal treatment‐outcome association are generally identified usingdomain‐specific knowledge. However, this may leave an analyst with a largeset of potential confounders that may hinder estimation. Previous approaches todata‐adaptive model selection for this type of causal parameter were limited tothe single time‐point setting. We develop a longitudinal extension of acollaborative targeted minimum loss‐based estimation (C‐TMLE) algorithmthat can be applied to perform variable selection in the models for theprobability of treatment with the goal of improving the estimation of thepopulation mean counterfactual outcome under a fixed exposure pattern. Weinvestigate the properties of this method through a simulation study, comparingit to G‐Computation and inverse probability of treatment weighting. We thenapply the method in a real‐data example to evaluate the safety of trimester‐specific exposure to inhaled corticosteroids during pregnancy in women withmild asthma. The data for this study were obtained from the linkage ofelectronic health databases in the province of Quebec, Canada. The C‐TMLEcovariate selection approach allowed for a reduction of the set of potentialconfounders, which included baseline and longitudinal variables

Estimating treatment importance in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis using Targeted Learning : an observational individual patient data network meta-analysis

Persons with multidrug‐resistant tuberculosis (MDR‐TB) have a disease resulting from a strain of tuberculosis (TB) that does not respond to at least isoniazid and rifampicin, the two most effective anti‐TB drugs. MDR‐TB is always treated with multiple antimicrobial agents. Our data consist of individual patient data from 31 international observational studies with varying prescription practices, access to medications, and distributions of antibiotic resistance. In this study, we develop identifiability criteria for the estimation of a global treatment importance metric in the context where not all medications are observed in all studies. With stronger causal assumptions, this treatment importance metric can be interpreted as the effect of adding a medication to the existing treatments. We then use this metric to rank 15 observed antimicrobial agents in terms of their estimated add‐on value. Using the concept of transportability, we propose an implementation of targeted maximum likelihood estimation, a doubly robust and locally efficient plug‐in estimator, to estimate the treatment importance metric. A clustered sandwich estimator is adopted to compute variance estimates and produce confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of our estimator, verify the double robustness property, and assess the appropriateness of the variance estimation approach

Semiparametric theory and empirical processes in causal inference

In this paper we review important aspects of semiparametric theory and empirical processes that arise in causal inference problems. We begin with a brief introduction to the general problem of causal inference, and go on to discuss estimation and inference for causal effects under semiparametric models, which allow parts of the data-generating process to be unrestricted if they are not of particular interest (i.e., nuisance functions). These models are very useful in causal problems because the outcome process is often complex and difficult to model, and there may only be information available about the treatment process (at best). Semiparametric theory gives a framework for benchmarking efficiency and constructing estimators in such settings. In the second part of the paper we discuss empirical process theory, which provides powerful tools for understanding the asymptotic behavior of semiparametric estimators that depend on flexible nonparametric estimators of nuisance functions. These tools are crucial for incorporating machine learning and other modern methods into causal inference analyses. We conclude by examining related extensions and future directions for work in semiparametric causal inference

Oracle inequalities for multi-fold cross validation

We consider choosing an estimator or model from a given class by cross validation consisting of holding a nonneglible fraction of the observations out as a test set. We derive bounds that show that the risk of the resulting procedure is (up to a constant) smaller than the risk of an oracle plus an error which typically grows logarithmically with the number of estimators in the class. We extend the results to penalized cross validation in order to control unbounded loss functions. Applications include regression with squared and absolute deviation loss and classification under Tsybakov’s condition.Article / Letter to editorMathematisch Instituu

Comparing powder magnetization and transport critical current of Bi,Pb(2223) tapes

The magnetic field dependence of the critical current in (Bi,Pb)/sub 2/Sr/sub 2/Ca/sub 2/Cu/sub 3/O/sub 10+x/ tapes is compared with the magnetization response of isolated grains extracted from the tapes. Special attention is paid to the low-field behavior. The goal of the experiment is to test the widely-used hypothesis that current paths in these tapes contain both weak- and strong- linked branches, which in low field act in parallel. The data agree with this hypothesis; at temperatures above 50 K the powder magnetization drops off exponentially from the self-field to the irreversibility field, while the transport and magnetization currents in the intact tapes show an extra low-field component. Below 50 K the powder behavior becomes less straightforward, but the parallel-path picture in the tapes still holds

Potential benefits of an adaptive forward collision warning system

Forward collision warning (FCW) systems can reduce rear-end vehicle collisions. However, if the presentation of warnings is perceived as mistimed, trust in the system is diminished and drivers become less likely to respond appropriately. In this driving simulator investigation, 45 drivers experienced two FCW systems: a non-adaptive and an adaptive FCW that adjusted the timing of its alarms according to each individual driver’s reaction time. Whilst all drivers benefited in terms of improved safety from both FCW systems, non-aggressive drivers (low sensation seeking, long followers) did not display a preference to the adaptive FCW over its non-adaptive equivalent. Furthermore, there was little evidence to suggest that the non-aggressive drivers’ performance differed with either system. Benefits of the adaptive system were demonstrated for aggressive drivers (high sensation seeking, short followers). Even though both systems reduced their likelihood of a crash to a similar extent, the aggressive drivers rated each FCW more poorly than their non-aggressive contemporaries. However, this group, with their greater risk of involvement in rear-end collisions, reported a preference for the adaptive system as they found it less irritating and stress-inducing. Achieving greater acceptance and hence likely use of a real system is fundamental to good quality FCW design

Critical current versus strain research at the University of Twente

At the University of Twente a U-shaped spring has been used to investigate the mechanical properties of a large variety of superconducting tapes and wires. Several mechanisms are responsible for the degradation of critical current as a function of applied strain. A change in its intrinsic parameters causes a reversible critical current dependence in Nb3Sn. The critical current reaches a maximum at a wire-dependent tensile strain level, and decreases when this tensile strain is either released or further increased. In Bi-based tapes the critical current is virtually insensitive to tensile strain up to a sample-dependent irreversible strain limit. When this limit is exceeded, the critical current decreases steeply and irreversibly. This behaviour is attributed to microstructural damage to the filaments. This cracking of the filaments is verified by a magneto-optical strain experiment. Recent experiments suggest that in MgB2 the degradation of critical current is caused by a change in intrinsic properties and damage to the microstructure. Magneto-optical imaging can be used to investigate the influence of applied strain on the microstructure of MgB2, as is done successfully with Bi-based tapes. In all these conductors the thermal precompression of the filaments plays an important role. In Nb3Sn it determines the position of the maximum and in Bi-based and MgB2 conductors it is closely related to the irreversible strain limit

Induced magnetic moment of Eu3+ ions in GaN

Magnetic semiconductors with coupled magnetic and electronic properties are of high technological and fundamental importance. Rare-earth elements can be used to introduce magnetic moments associated with the uncompensated spin of 4f-electrons into the semiconductor hosts. The luminescence produced by rare-earth doped semiconductors also attracts considerable interest due to the possibility of electrical excitation of characteristic sharp emission lines from intra 4f-shell transitions. Recently, electroluminescence of Eu-doped GaN in current-injection mode was demonstrated in p-n junction diode structures grown by organometallic vapour phase epitaxy. Unlike most other trivalent rare-earth ions, Eu3+ ions possess no magnetic moment in the ground state. Here we report the detection of an induced magnetic moment of Eu3+ ions in GaN which is associated with the 7F2 final state of 5D0→7F2 optical transitions emitting at 622 nm. The prospect of controlling magnetic moments electrically or optically will lead to the development of novel magneto-optic devices

Validity and reliability of the Katz-15 scale to measure unfavorable health outcomes in community-dwelling older people

Geriatrics in primary car

Performance variability in perioperative sentinel events: report on a nationwide data set

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