Long-Short Term Memory for an Effective Short-Term Weather Forecasting Model Using Surface Weather Data

Part 7: Deep Learning - Convolutional ANNInternational audienceNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP) requires considerable computer power to solve complex mathematical equations to obtain a forecast based on current weather conditions. In this article, we propose a lightweight data-driven weather forecasting model by exploring state-of-the-art deep learning techniques based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Weather information is captured by time-series data and thus, we explore the latest Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) layered model, which is a specialised form of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for weather prediction. The aim of this research is to develop and evaluate a short-term weather forecasting model using the LSTM and evaluate the accuracy compared to the well-established Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model. The proposed deep model consists of stacked LSTM layers that uses surface weather parameters over a given period of time for weather forecasting. The model is experimented with different number of LSTM layers, optimisers, and learning rates and optimised for effective short-term weather predictions. Our experiment shows that the proposed lightweight model produces better results compared to the well-known and complex WRF model, demonstrating its potential for efficient and accurate short-term weather forecasting

Behaviorally informed policies for household financial decisionmaking

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Low incomes, limited financial literacy, fraud, and deception are just a few of the many intractable economic and social factors that contribute to the financial difficulties that households face today. Addressing these issues directly is difficult and costly. But poor financial outcomes also result from systematic psychological tendencies, including imperfect optimization, biased judgments and preferences, and susceptibility to influence by the actions and opinions of others. Some of these psychological tendencies and the problems they cause may be countered by policies and interventions that are both low cost and scalable. We detail the ways that these behavioral factors contribute to consumers' financial mistakes and suggest a set of interventions that the federal government, in its dual roles as regulator and employer, could feasibly test or implement to improve household financial outcomes in a variety of domains: retirement, short-term savings, debt management, the take-up of government benefits, and tax optimization

Lack of trust in maternal support is associated with negative interpretations of ambiguous maternal behavior

Attachment theory assumes that children who lack trust in maternal availability for support are more inclined to interpret maternal behavior in congruence with their expectation that mother will remain unavailable for support. To provide the first test of this assumption, early adolescents (9-13 years old) were asked to assess whether ambiguous interactions with mother should be interpreted in a positive or a negative way. In our sample (n = 322), results showed that early adolescents' lack of trust in their mother's availability for support was related to more negative interpretations of maternal behavior. The associations remained significant after controlling for depressive mood. The importance of these findings for our understanding of attachment theory, attachment stability, and clinical practice are discussed

Detection of drug-sensitizing EGFR exon 19 deletion mutations in salivary gland carcinoma

Activating mutations within the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) identify lung adenocarcinoma patients with improved clinical responses to tyrosine kinase inhibitors gefitinib and erlotinib. By screening salivary gland carcinoma, two drug-sensitizing EGFR exon 19 delE746-A750 mutations were identified in an adenocystic and in a mucoepidermoid carcinoma of the parotid gland

The role of childhood social position in adult type 2 diabetes: Evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Copyright @ 2014 Pikhartova et al. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Background: Socioeconomic circumstances in childhood and early adulthood may influence the later onset of chronic disease, although such research is limited for type 2 diabetes and its risk factors at the different stages of life. The main aim of the present study is to examine the role of childhood social position and later inflammatory markers and health behaviours in developing type 2 diabetes at older ages using a pathway analytic approach. Methods. Data on childhood and adult life circumstances of 2,994 men and 4,021 women from English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) were used to evaluate their association with diabetes at age 50 years and more. The cases of diabetes were based on having increased blood levels of glycated haemoglobin and/or self-reported medication for diabetes and/or being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Father's job when ELSA participants were aged 14 years was used as the measure of childhood social position. Current social characteristics, health behaviours and inflammatory biomarkers were used as potential mediators in the statistical analysis to assess direct and indirect effects of childhood circumstances on diabetes in later life. Results: 12.6 per cent of participants were classified as having diabetes. A disadvantaged social position in childhood, as measured by father's manual occupation, was associated at conventional levels of statistical significance with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes in adulthood, both directly and indirectly through inflammation, adulthood social position and a risk score constructed from adult health behaviours including tobacco smoking and limited physical activity. The direct effect of childhood social position was reduced by mediation analysis (standardised coefficient decreased from 0.089 to 0.043) but remained statistically significant (p = 0.035). All three indirect pathways made a statistically significantly contribution to the overall effect of childhood social position on adulthood type 2 diabetes. Conclusions: Childhood social position influences adult diabetes directly and indirectly through inflammatory markers, adulthood social position and adult health behaviours. © 2014Pikhartova et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.Economic and Social Research Council-funded International Centre for Life Course Studies in Society and Health (RES-596-28-0001)

Diagnostic criteria for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: a Fleischner Society White Paper.

This Review provides an updated approach to the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), based on a systematic search of the medical literature and the expert opinion of members of the Fleischner Society. A checklist is provided for the clinical evaluation of patients with suspected usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP). The role of CT is expanded to permit diagnosis of IPF without surgical lung biopsy in select cases when CT shows a probable UIP pattern. Additional investigations, including surgical lung biopsy, should be considered in patients with either clinical or CT findings that are indeterminate for IPF. A multidisciplinary approach is particularly important when deciding to perform additional diagnostic assessments, integrating biopsy results with clinical and CT features, and establishing a working diagnosis of IPF if lung tissue is not available. A working diagnosis of IPF should be reviewed at regular intervals since the diagnosis might change. Criteria are presented to establish confident and working diagnoses of IPF

Impact of Space Weather on Climate and Habitability of Terrestrial Type Exoplanets

The current progress in the detection of terrestrial type exoplanets has opened a new avenue in the characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres and in the search for biosignatures of life with the upcoming ground-based and space missions. To specify the conditions favorable for the origin, development and sustainment of life as we know it in other worlds, we need to understand the nature of astrospheric, atmospheric and surface environments of exoplanets in habitable zones around G-K-M dwarfs including our young Sun. Global environment is formed by propagated disturbances from the planet-hosting stars in the form of stellar flares, coronal mass ejections, energetic particles, and winds collectively known as astrospheric space weather. Its characterization will help in understanding how an exoplanetary ecosystem interacts with its host star, as well as in the specification of the physical, chemical and biochemical conditions that can create favorable and/or detrimental conditions for planetary climate and habitability along with evolution of planetary internal dynamics over geological timescales. A key linkage of (astro) physical, chemical, and geological processes can only be understood in the framework of interdisciplinary studies with the incorporation of progress in heliophysics, astrophysics, planetary and Earth sciences. The assessment of the impacts of host stars on the climate and habitability of terrestrial (exo)planets will significantly expand the current definition of the habitable zone to the biogenic zone and provide new observational strategies for searching for signatures of life. The major goal of this paper is to describe and discuss the current status and recent progress in this interdisciplinary field and to provide a new roadmap for the future development of the emerging field of exoplanetary science and astrobiology.Comment: 206 pages, 24 figures, 1 table; Review paper. International Journal of Astrobiology (2019

Nightly treatment of primary insomnia with prolonged release melatonin for 6 months: a randomized placebo controlled trial on age and endogenous melatonin as predictors of efficacy and safety

<p>Background: Melatonin is extensively used in the USA in a non-regulated manner for sleep disorders. Prolonged release melatonin (PRM) is licensed in Europe and other countries for the short term treatment of primary insomnia in patients aged 55 years and over. However, a clear definition of the target patient population and well-controlled studies of long-term efficacy and safety are lacking. It is known that melatonin production declines with age. Some young insomnia patients also may have low melatonin levels. The study investigated whether older age or low melatonin excretion is a better predictor of response to PRM, whether the efficacy observed in short-term studies is sustained during continued treatment and the long term safety of such treatment.</p> <p>Methods: Adult outpatients (791, aged 18-80 years) with primary insomnia, were treated with placebo (2 weeks) and then randomized, double-blind to 3 weeks with PRM or placebo nightly. PRM patients continued whereas placebo completers were re-randomized 1:1 to PRM or placebo for 26 weeks with 2 weeks of single-blind placebo run-out. Main outcome measures were sleep latency derived from a sleep diary, Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Quality of Life (World Health Organzaton-5) Clinical Global Impression of Improvement (CGI-I) and adverse effects and vital signs recorded at each visit.</p> <p>Results: On the primary efficacy variable, sleep latency, the effects of PRM (3 weeks) in patients with low endogenous melatonin (6-sulphatoxymelatonin [6-SMT] ≤8 μg/night) regardless of age did not differ from the placebo, whereas PRM significantly reduced sleep latency compared to the placebo in elderly patients regardless of melatonin levels (-19.1 versus -1.7 min; P = 0.002). The effects on sleep latency and additional sleep and daytime parameters that improved with PRM were maintained or enhanced over the 6-month period with no signs of tolerance. Most adverse events were mild in severity with no clinically relevant differences between PRM and placebo for any safety outcome.</p> <p>Conclusions: The results demonstrate short- and long-term efficacy and safety of PRM in elderly insomnia patients. Low melatonin production regardless of age is not useful in predicting responses to melatonin therapy in insomnia. The age cut-off for response warrants further investigation.</p&gt