Temporal trend and climate factors of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic in Shenyang City, China

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH₀, MT₁, RH₁, and MWV₁; component 2 represented RH₂, MaxT₃, and MAP₃; and component 3 represented MaxT₂, MAP₂, and MWV₂. The PCR model was composed of three principal components and two autocorrelation terms. The association between HFRS epidemics and climate factors was better explained in the PCR model (<it>F </it>= 446.452, <it>P </it>< 0.001, adjusted <it>R</it>²= 0.75) than in the general multiple regression model (<it>F </it>= 223.670, <it>P </it>< 0.000, adjusted <it>R</it>²= 0.51).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The temporal distribution of HFRS in Shenyang varied in different years with a distinctly declining trend. The monthly trends of HFRS were significantly associated with local temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity of the different previous months. The model conducted in this study will make HFRS surveillance simpler and the control of HFRS more targeted in Shenyang.</p

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods-wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling-we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens

Holographic models for undoped Weyl semimetals

We continue our recently proposed holographic description of single-particle correlation functions for four-dimensional chiral fermions with Lifshitz scaling at zero chemical potential, paying particular attention to the dynamical exponent z = 2. We present new results for the spectral densities and dispersion relations at non-zero momenta and temperature. In contrast to the relativistic case with z = 1, we find the existence of a quantum phase transition from a non-Fermi liquid into a Fermi liquid in which two Fermi surfaces spontaneously form, even at zero chemical potential. Our findings show that the boundary system behaves like an undoped Weyl semimetal.Comment: 64 pages, 19 figure

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome, Beijing, People's Republic of China

We used geographic information systems to characterize the dynamic change in spatial distribution of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Beijing, People's Republic of China. The seasonal variation in its incidence was observed by creating an epidemic curve. HFRS was associated with developed land, orchards, and rice paddies

Augmented Lung Inflammation Protects against Influenza A Pneumonia

Influenza pneumonia causes high mortality every year, and pandemic episodes kill millions of people. Influenza-related mortality has been variously ascribed to an ineffective host response that fails to limit viral replication, an excessive host inflammatory response that results in lung injury and impairment of gas exchange, or to bacterial superinfection. We sought to determine whether lung inflammation promoted or impaired host survival in influenza pneumonia.To distinguish among these possible causes of influenza-related death, we induced robust lung inflammation by exposing mice to an aerosolized bacterial lysate prior to challenge with live virus. The treatment induced expression of the inflammatory cytokines IL-6 and TNF in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid 8- and 40-fold greater, respectively, than that caused by lethal influenza infection. Yet, this augmented inflammation was associated with striking resistance to host mortality (0% vs 90% survival, p = 0.0001) and reduced viral titers (p = 0.004). Bacterial superinfection of virus infected lungs was not observed. When mice were repeatedly exposed to the bacterial lysate, as would be clinically desirable during an influenza epidemic, there was no tachyphylaxis of the induced viral resistance. When the bacterial lysate was administered after the viral challenge, there was still some mortality benefit, and when ribavirin was added to the aerosolized bacterial lysate, host survival was synergistically improved (0% vs 93.3% survival, p<0.0001).Together, these data indicate that innate immune resistance to influenza can be effectively stimulated, and suggest that ineffective rather than excessive inflammation is the major cause of mortality in influenza pneumonia