Demand forecasting: a case study in the food industry

The use of forecasting methods is nowadays regarded as a business ally since it supports both the operational and the strategic decision-making processes. This paper is based on a research project aiming the development of demand forecasting models for a company (designated here by PR) that operates in the food business, more specifically in the delicatessen segment. In particular, we focused on demand forecasting models that can serve as a tool to support production planning and inventory management at the company. The analysis of the company’s operations led to the development of a new demand forecasting tool based on a combination of forecasts, which is now being used and tested by the company.This work has been supported by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia within the Project Scope: UID/CEC/00319/201

Pure endoscopic endonasal odontoidectomy: anatomical study

Different disorders may produce irreducible atlanto-axial dislocation with compression of the ventral spinal cord. Among the surgical approaches available for a such condition, the transoral resection of the odontoid process is the most often used. The aim of this anatomical study is to demonstrate the possibility of an anterior cervico-medullary decompression through an endoscopic endonasal approach. Three fresh cadaver heads were used. A modified endonasal endoscopic approach was made in all cases. Endoscopic dissections were performed using a rigid endoscope, 4 mm in diameter, 18 cm in length, with 0 degree lenses. Access to the cranio-vertebral junction was possible using a lower trajectory, when compared to that necessary for the sellar region. The choana is entered and the mucosa of the rhinopharynx is dissected and transposed in the oral cavity in order to expose the cranio-vertebral junction and to obtain a mucosal flap useful for the closure. The anterior arch of the atlas and the odontoid process of C2 are removed, thus exposing the dura mater. The endoscopic endonasal approach could be a valid alternative to the transoral approach for anterior odontoidectomy

First report of the blaOXA-58 gene in a clinical isolate of Acinetobacter baumannii in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Carbapenemase production is an important mechanism of carbapenem resistance among nonfermentative Gram-negative isolates. This study aimed to report the detection of blaOXA-58 gene in multiresistant clinical isolates of Acinetobacter baumannii recovered from inpatients in a public hospital. Polymerase chain reaction tests were performed to detect the blaOXA-23-like, blaOXA-24-like, blaOXA-58-like and blaOXA-51-like genes. The blaOXA-58 and blaOXA-23 genes were detected in one and three isolates, respectively. Sequencing of the blaOXA-58-like amplicon revealed 100% identity with the A. baumannii blaOXA-58 gene listed in the GenBank database. This is the first report of an OXA-58-producing A. baumannii isolate in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Life history and chemical ecology of the Warrior wasp Synoeca septentrionalis (Hymenoptera : Vespidae, Epiponini)

Swarm-founding ‘Warrior wasps’ (Synoeca spp.) are found throughout the tropical regions of South America, are much feared due to their aggressive nest defence and painful sting. There are only five species of Synoeca, all construct distinctive nests that consist of a single sessile comb built onto the surface of a tree or rock face, which is covered by a ribbed envelope. Although locally common, research into this group is just starting. We studied eight colonies of Synoeca septentrionalis, a species recently been described from Brazil. A new colony is established by a swarm of 52 to 140 adults that constructs a colony containing around 200 brood cells. The largest colony collected containing 865 adults and over 1400 cells. The number of queen’s present among the eight colonies varied between 3 and 58 and no clear association between colony development and queen number was detected. Workers and queens were morphologically indistinguishable, but differences in their cuticular hydrocarbons were detected, particularly in their (Z)-9-alkenes. The simple cuticular profile, multiple queens, large size and small number of species makes the ‘Warrior wasps’ an excellent model group for further chemical ecology studies of swarm-founding wasps

Transcription of toll-like receptors 2, 3, 4 and 9, FoxP3 and Th17 cytokines in a susceptible experimental model of canine Leishmania infantum infection

Canine leishmaniosis (CanL) due to Leishmania infantum is a chronic zoonotic systemic disease resulting from complex interactions between protozoa and the canine immune system. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are essential components of the innate immune system and facilitate the early detection of many infections. However, the role of TLRs in CanL remains unknown and information describing TLR transcription during infection is extremely scarce. The aim of this research project was to investigate the impact of L. infantum infection on canine TLR transcription using a susceptible model. The objectives of this study were to evaluate transcription of TLRs 2, 3, 4 and 9 by means of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in skin, spleen, lymph node and liver in the presence or absence of experimental L. infantum infection in Beagle dogs. These findings were compared with clinical and serological data, parasite densities in infected tissues and transcription of IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3 in different tissues in non-infected dogs (n = 10), and at six months (n = 24) and 15 months (n = 7) post infection. Results revealed significant down regulation of transcription with disease progression in lymph node samples for TLR3, TLR4, TLR9, IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3. In spleen samples, significant down regulation of transcription was seen in TLR4 and IL-22 when both infected groups were compared with controls. In liver samples, down regulation of transcription was evident with disease progression for IL-22. In the skin, upregulation was seen only for TLR9 and FoxP3 in the early stages of infection. Subtle changes or down regulation in TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and FoxP3 are indicative of the silent establishment of infection that Leishmania is renowned for. These observations provide new insights about TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and Foxp3 in the liver, spleen, lymph node and skin in CanL and highlight possible markers of disease susceptibility in this model

Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area

Expectations and uncertainty play a key role in economic behavior. This paper deals with both, expectations and uncertainty derived from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters. Given the strong turbulences that the euro area macroeconomic indicators observe since 2007, the aim of the paper is to check whether there is any room for improvement of the consensus forecast accuracy for GDP growth and inflation when accounting for uncertainty. We propose a new measure of uncertainty, alternative to the ad hoc equal weights commonly used, based on principal components. We test the role of uncertainty in forecasting macroeconomic performance in the euro area between 2005 and 2015. We also check the role of surprises in the considered forecasting sampleMinisterio de Economía y CompetitividadFinancial support from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, project numbers ECO2015-70331-C2-1-R, ECO2015-66593-P and ECO2014-56676C2-2-P and Universidad de Alcalá is acknowledged