Model-Derived Dispersal Pathways from Multiple Source Populations Explain Variability of Invertebrate Larval Supply

Background: Predicting the spatial and temporal patterns of marine larval dispersal and supply is a challenging task due to the small size of the larvae and the variability of oceanographic processes. Addressing this problem requires the use of novel approaches capable of capturing the inherent variability in the mechanisms involved. Methodology/Principal Findings: In this study we test whether dispersal and connectivity patterns generated from a biophysical model of larval dispersal of the crab Carcinus maenas, along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, can predict the highly variable daily pattern of wind-driven larval supply to an estuary observed during the peak reproductive season (March–June) in 2006 and 2007. Cross-correlations between observed and predicted supply were significant (p,0.05) and strong, ranging from 0.34 to 0.81 at time lags of 26 to+5 d. Importantly, the model correctly predicted observed cross-shelf distributions (Pearson r = 0.82, p,0.001, and r = 0.79, p,0.01, in 2006 and 2007) and indicated that all supply events were comprised of larvae that had been retained within the inner shelf; larvae transported to the outer shelf and beyond never recruited. Estimated average dispersal distances ranged from 57 to 198 km and were only marginally affected by mortality. Conclusions/Significance: The high degree of predicted demographic connectivity over relatively large geographic scales is consistent with the lack of genetic structuring in C. maenas along the Iberian Peninsula. These findings indicate that the dynamic nature of larval dispersal can be captured by mechanistic biophysical models, which can be used to provid

Temporal genetic homogeneity among shore crab (Carcinus maenas) larval events supplied to an estuarine system on the Portuguese northwest coast

Despite the importance of larval biology in the life histories of many marine animals, relatively little information exists on the dynamics and genetic composition of larval cohorts. The supply of megalopae larvae of the shore crab, Carcinus maenas, was measured on a daily basis during 8 months spread along two larval periods (2006 and 2007) at the Ria de Aveiro estuary, on the Portuguese northwest coast. A total of 10 microsatellite DNA loci were employed to explore the genetic structure, variability and relatedness of temporally distinct megalopal events, selected from the major pulses of supply. Larval variation was also compared genetically with that of a previously studied adult crabs sample, at the same loci, collected in 2006 and 2007 along the Iberian Peninsula. Results revealed a lack of genetic differentiation and identical diversity levels among larval events over time. No evidence of reduced genetic diversity between megalopae relative to the diversity assessed from the pooled sample of adults was found. Moreover, there was no evidence of any family relatedness among larvae from temporal events. The results obtained for C. maenas contradict predictions made by the sweepstakes reproduction hypothesis, in which large variance in reproductive success is expected, which is presumably detectable as sharp genetic discontinuities among separate larval events. Data here indicate conversely a high degree of temporal genetic stability among larval supply to a given estuary under variable oceanographic conditions, consistent with the hypothesis that sampled larvae were drawn from a large number of adults that do not differ in reproductive success