Developing and validating subjective and objective risk-assessment measures for predicting mortality after major surgery: An international prospective cohort study

Background: Preoperative risk prediction is important for guiding clinical decision-making and resource allocation. Clinicians frequently rely solely on their own clinical judgement for risk prediction rather than objective measures. We aimed to compare the accuracy of freely available objective surgical risk tools with subjective clinical assessment in predicting 30-day mortality. Methods and findings: We conducted a prospective observational study in 274 hospitals in the United Kingdom (UK), Australia, and New Zealand. For 1 week in 2017, prospective risk, surgical, and outcome data were collected on all adults aged 18 years and over undergoing surgery requiring at least a 1-night stay in hospital. Recruitment bias was avoided through an ethical waiver to patient consent; a mixture of rural, urban, district, and university hospitals participated. We compared subjective assessment with 3 previously published, open-access objective risk tools for predicting 30-day mortality: the Portsmouth-Physiology and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality (P-POSSUM), Surgical Risk Scale (SRS), and Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT). We then developed a logistic regression model combining subjective assessment and the best objective tool and compared its performance to each constituent method alone. We included 22,631 patients in the study: 52.8% were female, median age was 62 years (interquartile range [IQR] 46 to 73 years), median postoperative length of stay was 3 days (IQR 1 to 6), and inpatient 30-day mortality was 1.4%. Clinicians used subjective assessment alone in 88.7% of cases. All methods overpredicted risk, but visual inspection of plots showed the SORT to have the best calibration. The SORT demonstrated the best discrimination of the objective tools (SORT Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic curve [AUROC] = 0.90, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88–0.92; P-POSSUM = 0.89, 95% CI 0.88–0.91; SRS = 0.85, 95% CI 0.82–0.87). Subjective assessment demonstrated good discrimination (AUROC = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.86–0.91) that was not different from the SORT (p = 0.309). Combining subjective assessment and the SORT improved discrimination (bootstrap optimism-corrected AUROC = 0.92, 95% CI: 0.90–0.94) and demonstrated continuous Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI = 0.13, 95% CI: 0.06–0.20, p < 0.001) compared with subjective assessment alone. Decision-curve analysis (DCA) confirmed the superiority of the SORT over other previously published models, and the SORT–clinical judgement model again performed best overall. Our study is limited by the low mortality rate, by the lack of blinding in the ‘subjective’ risk assessments, and because we only compared the performance of clinical risk scores as opposed to other prediction tools such as exercise testing or frailty assessment. Conclusions: In this study, we observed that the combination of subjective assessment with a parsimonious risk model improved perioperative risk estimation. This may be of value in helping clinicians allocate finite resources such as critical care and to support patient involvement in clinical decision-making

Transcription of toll-like receptors 2, 3, 4 and 9, FoxP3 and Th17 cytokines in a susceptible experimental model of canine Leishmania infantum infection

Canine leishmaniosis (CanL) due to Leishmania infantum is a chronic zoonotic systemic disease resulting from complex interactions between protozoa and the canine immune system. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) are essential components of the innate immune system and facilitate the early detection of many infections. However, the role of TLRs in CanL remains unknown and information describing TLR transcription during infection is extremely scarce. The aim of this research project was to investigate the impact of L. infantum infection on canine TLR transcription using a susceptible model. The objectives of this study were to evaluate transcription of TLRs 2, 3, 4 and 9 by means of quantitative reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) in skin, spleen, lymph node and liver in the presence or absence of experimental L. infantum infection in Beagle dogs. These findings were compared with clinical and serological data, parasite densities in infected tissues and transcription of IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3 in different tissues in non-infected dogs (n = 10), and at six months (n = 24) and 15 months (n = 7) post infection. Results revealed significant down regulation of transcription with disease progression in lymph node samples for TLR3, TLR4, TLR9, IL-17, IL-22 and FoxP3. In spleen samples, significant down regulation of transcription was seen in TLR4 and IL-22 when both infected groups were compared with controls. In liver samples, down regulation of transcription was evident with disease progression for IL-22. In the skin, upregulation was seen only for TLR9 and FoxP3 in the early stages of infection. Subtle changes or down regulation in TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and FoxP3 are indicative of the silent establishment of infection that Leishmania is renowned for. These observations provide new insights about TLR transcription, Th17 cytokines and Foxp3 in the liver, spleen, lymph node and skin in CanL and highlight possible markers of disease susceptibility in this model

Beyond Volume: The Impact of Complex Healthcare Data on the Machine Learning Pipeline

From medical charts to national census, healthcare has traditionally operated under a paper-based paradigm. However, the past decade has marked a long and arduous transformation bringing healthcare into the digital age. Ranging from electronic health records, to digitized imaging and laboratory reports, to public health datasets, today, healthcare now generates an incredible amount of digital information. Such a wealth of data presents an exciting opportunity for integrated machine learning solutions to address problems across multiple facets of healthcare practice and administration. Unfortunately, the ability to derive accurate and informative insights requires more than the ability to execute machine learning models. Rather, a deeper understanding of the data on which the models are run is imperative for their success. While a significant effort has been undertaken to develop models able to process the volume of data obtained during the analysis of millions of digitalized patient records, it is important to remember that volume represents only one aspect of the data. In fact, drawing on data from an increasingly diverse set of sources, healthcare data presents an incredibly complex set of attributes that must be accounted for throughout the machine learning pipeline. This chapter focuses on highlighting such challenges, and is broken down into three distinct components, each representing a phase of the pipeline. We begin with attributes of the data accounted for during preprocessing, then move to considerations during model building, and end with challenges to the interpretation of model output. For each component, we present a discussion around data as it relates to the healthcare domain and offer insight into the challenges each may impose on the efficiency of machine learning techniques.Comment: Healthcare Informatics, Machine Learning, Knowledge Discovery: 20 Pages, 1 Figur

The Hemorrhagic Coli Pilus (HCP) of Escherichia coli O157:H7 Is an Inducer of Proinflammatory Cytokine Secretion in Intestinal Epithelial Cells

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) O157:H7, the causative agent of hemorrhagic colitis and the hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS), produces long bundles of type IV pili (TFP) called hemorrhagic coli pili (HCP). HCP are capable of mediating several phenomena associated with pathogenicity: i) adherence to human and bovine epithelial cells; ii) invasion of epithelial cells; iii) hemagglutination of rabbit erythrocytes; iv) biofilm formation; v) twitching motility; and vi) specific binding to laminin and fibronectin. HCP are composed of a 19 kDa pilin subunit (HcpA) encoded by the hcpA chromosomal gene (called prepilin peptidase-dependent gene [ppdD] in E. coli K-12).In this study we investigated the potential role of HCP of E. coli O157:H7 strain EDL933 in activating the release of pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines from a variety of host epithelial cells. We found that purified HCP and a recombinant HcpA protein induced significant release of IL-8 and TNF-alpha, from cultured polarized intestinal cells (T84 and HT-29 cells) and non-intestinal HeLa cells. Levels of proinflammatory IL-8 and TNF-alpha, but not IL-2, IL6, or IL-10 cytokines, were increased in the presence of HCP and recombinant HcpA after 6 h of incubation with >or=50 ng/ml of protein, suggesting that stimulation of IL-8 and TNF-alpha are dose and time-dependent. In addition, we also demonstrated that flagella are potent inducers of cytokine production. Furthermore, MAPK activation kinetics studies showed that EHEC induces p38 phosphorylation under HCP-producing conditions, and ERK1/2 and JNK activation was detectable after 3 h of EHEC infection. HT-29 cells were stimulated with epidermal growth factor stimulation of HT-29 cells for 30 min leading to activation of three MAPKs.The HcpA pilin monomer of the HCP produced by EHEC O157:H7 is a potent inducer of IL-8 and TNF-alpha release, an event which could play a significant role in the pathogenesis of hemorrhagic colitis caused by this pathogen

Autoimmune and autoinflammatory mechanisms in uveitis

The eye, as currently viewed, is neither immunologically ignorant nor sequestered from the systemic environment. The eye utilises distinct immunoregulatory mechanisms to preserve tissue and cellular function in the face of immune-mediated insult; clinically, inflammation following such an insult is termed uveitis. The intra-ocular inflammation in uveitis may be clinically obvious as a result of infection (e.g. toxoplasma, herpes), but in the main infection, if any, remains covert. We now recognise that healthy tissues including the retina have regulatory mechanisms imparted by control of myeloid cells through receptors (e.g. CD200R) and soluble inhibitory factors (e.g. alpha-MSH), regulation of the blood retinal barrier, and active immune surveillance. Once homoeostasis has been disrupted and inflammation ensues, the mechanisms to regulate inflammation, including T cell apoptosis, generation of Treg cells, and myeloid cell suppression in situ, are less successful. Why inflammation becomes persistent remains unknown, but extrapolating from animal models, possibilities include differential trafficking of T cells from the retina, residency of CD8(+) T cells, and alterations of myeloid cell phenotype and function. Translating lessons learned from animal models to humans has been helped by system biology approaches and informatics, which suggest that diseased animals and people share similar changes in T cell phenotypes and monocyte function to date. Together the data infer a possible cryptic infectious drive in uveitis that unlocks and drives persistent autoimmune responses, or promotes further innate immune responses. Thus there may be many mechanisms in common with those observed in autoinflammatory disorders

Structural and Spectroscopic Analysis of the Kinase Inhibitor Bosutinib and an Isomer of Bosutinib Binding to the Abl Tyrosine Kinase Domain

Chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is caused by the kinase activity of the BCR-Abl fusion protein. The Abl inhibitors imatinib, nilotinib and dasatinib are currently used to treat CML, but resistance to these inhibitors is a significant clinical problem. The kinase inhibitor bosutinib has shown efficacy in clinical trials for imatinib-resistant CML, but its binding mode is unknown. We present the 2.4 Å structure of bosutinib bound to the kinase domain of Abl, which explains the inhibitor's activity against several imatinib-resistant mutants, and reveals that similar inhibitors that lack a nitrile moiety could be effective against the common T315I mutant. We also report that two distinct chemical compounds are currently being sold under the name “bosutinib”, and report spectroscopic and structural characterizations of both. We show that the fluorescence properties of these compounds allow inhibitor binding to be measured quantitatively, and that the infrared absorption of the nitrile group reveals a different electrostatic environment in the conserved ATP-binding sites of Abl and Src kinases. Exploiting such differences could lead to inhibitors with improved selectivity

MRE11 Function in Response to Topoisomerase Poisons Is Independent of its Function in Double-Strand Break Repair in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Camptothecin (CPT) and etoposide (ETP) trap topoisomerase-DNA covalent intermediates, resulting in formation of DNA damage that can be cytotoxic if unrepaired. CPT and ETP are prototypes for molecules widely used in chemotherapy of cancer, so defining the mechanisms for repair of damage induced by treatment with these compounds is of great interest. In S. cerevisiae, deficiency in MRE11, which encodes a highly conserved factor, greatly enhances sensitivity to treatment with CPT or ETP. This has been thought to reflect the importance of double-strand break (DSB) repair pathways in the response to these to agents. Here we report that an S. cerevisiae strain expressing the mre11-H59A allele, mutant at a conserved active site histidine, is sensitive to hydroxyurea and also to ionizing radiation, which induces DSBs, but not to CPT or ETP. We show that TDP1, which encodes a tyrosyl-DNA phosphodiesterase activity able to release both 5′- and 3′-covalent topoisomerase-DNA complexes in vitro, contributes to ETP-resistance but not CPT-resistance in the mre11-H59A background. We further show that CPT- and ETP-resistance mediated by MRE11 is independent of SAE2, and thus independent of the coordinated functions of MRE11 and SAE2 in homology-directed repair and removal of Spo11 from DNA ends in meiosis. These results identify a function for MRE11 in the response to topoisomerase poisons that is distinct from its functions in DSB repair or meiotic DNA processing. They also establish that cellular proficiency in repair of DSBs may not correlate with resistance to topoisomerase poisons, a finding with potential implications for stratification of tumors with specific DNA repair deficiencies for treatment with these compounds

The Brain Reaction to Viewing Faces of Opposite- and Same-Sex Romantic Partners

We pursued our functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies of the neural correlates of romantic love in 24 subjects, half of whom were female (6 heterosexual and 6 homosexual) and half male (6 heterosexual and 6 homosexual). We compared the pattern of activity produced in their brains when they viewed the faces of their loved partners with that produced when they viewed the faces of friends of the same sex to whom they were romantically indifferent. The pattern of activation and de-activation was very similar in the brains of males and females, and heterosexuals and homosexuals. We could therefore detect no difference in activation patterns between these groups