Impact on emergency and elective hospital-based care in Scotland over the first 12 months of the pandemic: interrupted time-series analysis of national lockdowns

The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This analysis is part of the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) study. EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE – The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through the Scottish Government DG Health and Social Care. SAS and AS are also supported by the COVID-19 Longitudinal Health and Wellbeing National Core Study, funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_PC_20030). SVK acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2) and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). JM is partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research Applied Research Collaboration West (NIHR ARC West).Objectives COVID-19 has resulted in the greatest disruption to National Health Service (NHS) care in its over 70-year history. Building on our previous work, we assessed the ongoing impact of pandemic-related disruption on provision of emergency and elective hospital-based care across Scotland over the first year of the pandemic. Design We undertook interrupted time-series analyses to evaluate the impact of ongoing pandemic-related disruption on hospital NHS care provision at national level and across demographics and clinical specialties spanning the period 29 March 2020?28 March 2021. Setting Scotland, UK. Participants Patients receiving hospital care from NHS Scotland. Main outcome measures We used the percentage change of accident and emergency attendances, and emergency and planned hospital admissions during the pandemic compared to the average admission rate for equivalent weeks in 2018-2019. Results As restrictions were gradually lifted in Scotland after the first lockdown, hospital-based admissions increased approaching pre-pandemic levels. Subsequent tightening of restrictions in September 2020 were associated with a change in slope of relative weekly admissions rate: -1.98% (-2.38, -1.58) in accident and emergency attendance, -1.36% (-1.68, -1.04) in emergency admissions and -2.31% (-2.95, -1.66) in planned admissions. A similar pattern was seen across sex, socioeconomic status and most age groups, except children (0-14 years) where accident and emergency attendance, and emergency admissions were persistently low over the study period. Conclusions We found substantial disruption to urgent and planned inpatient healthcare provision in hospitals across NHS Scotland. There is the need for urgent policy responses to address continuing unmet health needs and to ensure resilience in the context of future pandemics.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Interim findings from first-dose mass COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and COVID-19 hospital admissions in Scotland: a national prospective cohort study

EAVE II is funded by the Medical Research Council (MR/R008345/1) with the support of BREATHE—The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health (MC_PC_19004), which is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Additional support has been provided through Public Health Scotland and the Scottish Government's director-general of Health and Social Care. FDRH acknowledges part support from the National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR) School for Primary Care Research, the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care Oxford, and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. SVK acknowledges funding from an NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU13).Background The BNT162b2 mRNA (Pfizer–BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca) COVID-19 vaccines have shown high efficacy against disease in phase 3 clinical trials and are now being used in national vaccination programmes in the UK and several other countries. Studying the real-world effects of these vaccines is an urgent requirement. The aim of our study was to investigate the association between the mass roll-out of the first doses of these COVID-19 vaccines and hospital admissions for COVID-19.  Methods We did a prospective cohort study using the Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19—EAVE II—database comprising linked vaccination, primary care, real-time reverse transcription-PCR testing, and hospital admission patient records for 5·4 million people in Scotland (about 99% of the population) registered at 940 general practices. Individuals who had previously tested positive were excluded from the analysis. A time-dependent Cox model and Poisson regression models with inverse propensity weights were fitted to estimate effectiveness against COVID-19 hospital admission (defined as 1–adjusted rate ratio) following the first dose of vaccine.  Findings Between Dec 8, 2020, and Feb 22, 2021, a total of 1 331 993 people were vaccinated over the study period. The mean age of those vaccinated was 65·0 years (SD 16·2). The first dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 91% (95% CI 85–94) for reduced COVID-19 hospital admission at 28–34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 88% (95% CI 75–94). Results of combined vaccine effects against hospital admission due to COVID-19 were similar when restricting the analysis to those aged 80 years and older (83%, 95% CI 72–89 at 28–34 days post-vaccination).  Interpretation Mass roll-out of the first doses of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines was associated with substantial reductions in the risk of hospital admission due to COVID-19 in Scotland. There remains the possibility that some of the observed effects might have been due to residual confounding.  Funding UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council), Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund, Health Data Research UK.proofPeer reviewe

Burn Injury Reduces Neutrophil Directional Migration Speed in Microfluidic Devices

Thermal injury triggers a fulminant inflammatory cascade that heralds shock, end-organ failure, and ultimately sepsis and death. Emerging evidence points to a critical role for the innate immune system, and several studies had documented concurrent impairment in neutrophil chemotaxis with these post-burn inflammatory changes. While a few studies suggest that a link between neutrophil motility and patient mortality might exist, so far, cumbersome assays have prohibited exploration of the prognostic and diagnostic significance of chemotaxis after burn injury. To address this need, we developed a microfluidic device that is simple to operate and allows for precise and robust measurements of chemotaxis speed and persistence characteristics at single-cell resolution. Using this assay, we established a reference set of migration speed values for neutrophils from healthy subjects. Comparisons with samples from burn patients revealed impaired directional migration speed starting as early as 24 hours after burn injury, reaching a minimum at 72–120 hours, correlated to the size of the burn injury and potentially serving as an early indicator for concurrent infections. Further characterization of neutrophil chemotaxis using this new assay may have important diagnostic implications not only for burn patients but also for patients afflicted by other diseases that compromise neutrophil functions

Structure-Function Relationship of Cytoplasmic and Nuclear IκB Proteins: An In Silico Analysis

Cytoplasmic IκB proteins are primary regulators that interact with NF-κB subunits in the cytoplasm of unstimulated cells. Upon stimulation, these IκB proteins are rapidly degraded, thus allowing NF-κB to translocate into the nucleus and activate the transcription of genes encoding various immune mediators. Subsequent to translocation, nuclear IκB proteins play an important role in the regulation of NF-κB transcriptional activity by acting either as activators or inhibitors. To date, molecular basis for the binding of IκBα, IκBβ and IκBζ along with their partners is known; however, the activation and inhibition mechanism of the remaining IκB (IκBNS, IκBε and Bcl-3) proteins remains elusive. Moreover, even though IκB proteins are structurally similar, it is difficult to determine the exact specificities of IκB proteins towards their respective binding partners. The three-dimensional structures of IκBNS, IκBζ and IκBε were modeled. Subsequently, we used an explicit solvent method to perform detailed molecular dynamic simulations of these proteins along with their known crystal structures (IκBα, IκBβ and Bcl-3) in order to investigate the flexibility of the ankyrin repeat domains (ARDs). Furthermore, the refined models of IκBNS, IκBε and Bcl-3 were used for multiple protein-protein docking studies for the identification of IκBNS-p50/p50, IκBε-p50/p65 and Bcl-3-p50/p50 complexes in order to study the structural basis of their activation and inhibition. The docking experiments revealed that IκBε masked the nuclear localization signal (NLS) of the p50/p65 subunits, thereby preventing its translocation into the nucleus. For the Bcl-3- and IκBNS-p50/p50 complexes, the results show that Bcl-3 mediated transcription through its transactivation domain (TAD) while IκBNS inhibited transcription due to its lack of a TAD, which is consistent with biochemical studies. Additionally, the numbers of identified flexible residues were equal in number among all IκB proteins, although they were not conserved. This could be the primary reason for their binding partner specificities

Societal output and use of research performed by health research groups

The last decade has seen the evaluation of health research pay more and more attention to societal use and benefits of research in addition to scientific quality, both in qualitative and quantitative ways. This paper elaborates primarily on a quantitative approach to assess societal output and use of research performed by health research groups (societal quality of research). For this reason, one of the Dutch university medical centres (i.e. the Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC)) was chosen as the subject of a pilot study, because of its mission to integrate top patient care with medical, biomedical and healthcare research and education. All research departments were used as units of evaluation within this university medical centre

Island Invasion by a Threatened Tree Species: Evidence for Natural Enemy Release of Mahogany (Swietenia macrophylla) on Dominica, Lesser Antilles

Despite its appeal to explain plant invasions, the enemy release hypothesis (ERH) remains largely unexplored for tropical forest trees. Even scarcer are ERH studies conducted on the same host species at both the community and biogeographical scale, irrespective of the system or plant life form. In Cabrits National Park, Dominica, we observed patterns consistent with enemy release of two introduced, congeneric mahogany species, Swietenia macrophylla and S. mahagoni, planted almost 50 years ago. Swietenia populations at Cabrits have reproduced, with S. macrophylla juveniles established in and out of plantation areas at densities much higher than observed in its native range. Swietenia macrophylla juveniles also experienced significantly lower leaf-level herbivory (∼3.0%) than nine co-occurring species native to Dominica (8.4–21.8%), and far lower than conspecific herbivory observed in its native range (11%–43%, on average). These complimentary findings at multiple scales support ERH, and confirm that Swietenia has naturalized at Cabrits. However, Swietenia abundance was positively correlated with native plant diversity at the seedling stage, and only marginally negatively correlated with native plant abundance for stems ≥1-cm dbh. Taken together, these descriptive patterns point to relaxed enemy pressure from specialized enemies, specifically the defoliator Steniscadia poliophaea and the shoot-borer Hypsipyla grandella, as a leading explanation for the enhanced recruitment of Swietenia trees documented at Cabrits

Paleo-Immunology: Evidence Consistent with Insertion of a Primordial Herpes Virus-Like Element in the Origins of Acquired Immunity

BACKGROUND:The RAG encoded proteins, RAG-1 and RAG-2 regulate site-specific recombination events in somatic immune B- and T-lymphocytes to generate the acquired immune repertoire. Catalytic activities of the RAG proteins are related to the recombinase functions of a pre-existing mobile DNA element in the DDE recombinase/RNAse H family, sometimes termed the "RAG transposon". METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:Novel to this work is the suggestion that the DDE recombinase responsible for the origins of acquired immunity was encoded by a primordial herpes virus, rather than a "RAG transposon." A subsequent "arms race" between immunity to herpes infection and the immune system obscured primary amino acid similarities between herpes and immune system proteins but preserved regulatory, structural and functional similarities between the respective recombinase proteins. In support of this hypothesis, evidence is reviewed from previous published data that a modern herpes virus protein family with properties of a viral recombinase is co-regulated with both RAG-1 and RAG-2 by closely linked cis-acting co-regulatory sequences. Structural and functional similarity is also reviewed between the putative herpes recombinase and both DDE site of the RAG-1 protein and another DDE/RNAse H family nuclease, the Argonaute protein component of RISC (RNA induced silencing complex). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:A "co-regulatory" model of the origins of V(D)J recombination and the acquired immune system can account for the observed linked genomic structure of RAG-1 and RAG-2 in non-vertebrate organisms such as the sea urchin that lack an acquired immune system and V(D)J recombination. Initially the regulated expression of a viral recombinase in immune cells may have been positively selected by its ability to stimulate innate immunity to herpes virus infection rather than V(D)J recombination Unlike the "RAG-transposon" hypothesis, the proposed model can be readily tested by comparative functional analysis of herpes virus replication and V(D)J recombination

Evolution of Female Preference for Younger Males

Previous theoretical work has suggested that females should prefer to mate with older males, as older males should have higher fitness than the average fitness of the cohort into which they were born. However, studies in humans and model organisms have shown that as males age, they accumulate deleterious mutations in their germ-line at an ever-increasing rate, thereby reducing the quality of genes passed on to the next generation. Thus, older males may produce relatively poor-quality offspring. To better understand how male age influences female mate preference and offspring quality, we used a genetic algorithm model to study the effect of age-related increases in male genetic load on female mate preference. When we incorporate age-related increases in mutation load in males into our model, we find that females evolve a preference for younger males. Females in this model could determine a male's age, but not his inherited genotype nor his mutation load. Nevertheless, females evolved age-preferences that led them to mate with males that had low mutation loads, but showed no preference for males with respect to their somatic quality. These results suggest that germ-line quality, rather than somatic quality, should be the focus of female preference in good genes models

Identification of a New Rhoptry Neck Complex RON9/RON10 in the Apicomplexa Parasite Toxoplasma gondii

Apicomplexan parasites secrete and inject into the host cell the content of specialized secretory organelles called rhoptries, which take part into critical processes such as host cell invasion and modulation of the host cell immune response. The rhoptries are structurally and functionally divided into two compartments. The apical duct contains rhoptry neck (RON) proteins that are conserved in Apicomplexa and are involved in formation of the moving junction (MJ) driving parasite invasion. The posterior bulb contains rhoptry proteins (ROPs) unique to an individual genus and, once injected in the host cell act as effector proteins to co-opt host processes and modulate parasite growth and virulence. We describe here two new RON proteins of Toxoplasma gondii, RON9 and RON10, which form a high molecular mass complex. In contrast to the other RONs described to date, this complex was not detected at the MJ during invasion and therefore was not associated to the MJ complex RON2/4/5/8. Disruptions of either RON9 or RON10 gene leads to the retention of the partner in the ER followed by subsequent degradation, suggesting that the RON9/RON10 complex formation is required for proper sorting to the rhoptries. Finally, we show that the absence of RON9/RON10 has no significant impact on the morphology of rhoptry, on the invasion and growth in fibroblasts in vitro or on virulence in vivo. The conservation of RON9 and RON10 in Coccidia and Cryptosporidia suggests a specific relation with development in intestinal epithelial cells