Analytical Exploration of Potential Pathways by which Diabetes Mellitus Impacts Tuberculosis Epidemiology.

We aimed to develop a conceptual framework of diabetes mellitus (DM) effects on tuberculosis (TB) natural history and treatment outcomes, and to assess the impact of these effects on TB-transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated using TB data for India. A conceptual framework was developed based on a literature review, and then translated into a mathematical model to assess the impact of the DM-on-TB effects. The impact was analyzed using TB-disease incidence hazard ratio (HR) and population attributable fraction (PAF) measures. Evidence was identified for 10 plausible DM-on-TB effects. Assuming a flat change of 300% (meaning an effect size of 3.0) for each DM-on-TB effect, the HR ranged between 1.0 (Effect 9-Recovery) and 2.7 (Effect 2-Fast progression); most effects did not have an impact on the HR. Meanwhile, TB-disease incidence attributed directly and indirectly to each effect ranged between -4.6% (Effect 7-TB mortality) and 34.5% (Effect 2-Fast progression). The second largest impact was for Effect 6-Disease infectiousness at 29.9%. In conclusion, DM can affect TB-transmission dynamics in multiple ways, most of which are poorly characterized and difficult to assess in epidemiologic studies. The indirect (e.g. onward transmission) impacts of some DM-on-TB effects are comparable in scale to the direct impacts. While the impact of several effects on the HR was limited, the impact on the PAF was substantial suggesting that DM could be impacting TB epidemiology to a larger extent than previously thought

Effect of subsidies on healthful consumption: a protocol for a systematic review update.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of diet-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are rapidly increasing in most parts of the world. In order to ameliorate the related public health burden, evidence-informed policies to improve diet need to be implemented. Financial subsidies that promote healthful consumption patterns have the potential to reduce NCD risk and may also reduce inequality if targeted at those of low socio-economic position. This protocol is for an updated systematic review of such evidence. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A systematic search strategy will be used to identify publications on fiscal intervention studies indexed in Embase, CINAHL, Web of Science, EconLit and PubMed in between January 2013 to February 2019. Two reviewers will independently sift identified citations using prespecified inclusion and exclusion criteria to inform full-text review. The outcomes of interest are: consumption patterns (% change in targeted items and in overall dietary patterns), purchasing patterns (% change) or body mass index. Pretested data capture forms will be used for double data extraction. Any inconsistencies in citation sifting or data extraction will be resolved by a third investigator and study authors will be contacted if needed. Systematic searches will be supplemented by reference checking of key articles. Study quality will be assessed and a narrative summary of findings will be produced. Meta-analyses and exploration of heterogeneity will be completed if appropriate. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The review aims to strengthen findings of the primary studies it incorporates. It will synthesise existing published aggregated patient data and only present further aggregate data. Given this, no concerns are held relating to confidentiality and informed consent due to re-use of patient data.If publications or data with ethical concerns are identified, they will be excluded from the review.Results of the systematic review will be published in full and authors will engage directly with research audiences and key stakeholders to share findings. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42019125013

Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a new interface for the widely used prognostic breast cancer tool: Predict: Breast Cancer. To facilitate decision-making around post-surgery breast cancer treatments. To derive recommendations for communicating the outputs of prognostic models to patients and their clinicians. METHOD: We employed a user-centred design process comprised of background research and iterative testing of prototypes with clinicians and patients. Methods included surveys, focus groups and usability testing. RESULTS: The updated interface now caters to the needs of a wider audience through the addition of new visualisations, instantaneous updating of results, enhanced explanatory information and the addition of new predictors and outputs. A programme of future research was identified and is now underway, including the provision of quantitative data on the adverse effects of adjuvant breast cancer treatments. Based on our user-centred design process, we identify six recommendations for communicating the outputs of prognostic models including the need to contextualise statistics, identify and address gaps in knowledge, and the critical importance of engaging with prospective users when designing communications. CONCLUSIONS: For prognostic algorithms to fulfil their potential to assist with decision-making they need carefully designed interfaces. User-centred design puts patients and clinicians needs at the forefront, allowing them to derive the maximum benefit from prognostic models

Gender-based violence and its association with mental health among Somali women in a Kenyan refugee camp: a latent class analysis

BACKGROUND: In conflict-affected settings, women and girls are vulnerable to gender-based violence (GBV). GBV is associated with poor long-term mental health such as anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Understanding the interaction between current violence and past conflict-related violence with ongoing mental health is essential for improving mental health service provision in refugee camps. METHODS: Using data collected from 209 women attending GBV case management centres in the Dadaab refugee camps, Kenya, we grouped women by recent experience of GBV using latent class analysis and modelled the relationship between the groups and symptomatic scores for anxiety, depression and PTSD using linear regression. RESULTS: Women with past-year experience of intimate partner violence alone may have a higher risk of depression than women with past-year experience of non-partner violence alone (Coef. 1.68, 95% CI 0.25 to 3.11). Conflict-related violence was an important risk factor for poor mental health among women who accessed GBV services, despite time since occurrence (average time in camp was 11.5 years) and even for those with a past-year experience of GBV (Anxiety: 3.48, 1.85-5.10; Depression: 2.26, 0.51-4.02; PTSD: 6.83, 4.21-9.44). CONCLUSION: Refugee women who experienced past-year intimate partner violence or conflict-related violence may be at increased risk of depression, anxiety or PTSD. Service providers should be aware that compared to the general refugee population, women who have experienced violence may require additional psychological support and recognise the enduring impact of violence that occurred before, during and after periods of conflict and tailor outreach and treatment services accordingly

Identification of furfural resistant strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Saccharomyces paradoxus from a collection of environmental and industrial isolates

Background Fermentation of bioethanol using lignocellulosic biomass as a raw material provides a sustainable alternative to current biofuel production methods by utilising waste food streams as raw material. Before lignocellulose can be fermented it requires physical, chemical and enzymatic treatment in order to release monosaccharides, a process that causes the chemical transformation of glucose and xylose into the cyclic aldehydes furfural and hydroxyfurfural. These furan compounds are potent inhibitors of Saccharomyces fermentation, and consequently furfural tolerant strains of Saccharomyces are required for lignocellulosic fermentation. Results This study investigated yeast tolerance to furfural and hydroxyfurfural using a collection of 71 environmental and industrial isolates of the baker’s yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and its closest relative Saccharomyces paradoxus. The Saccharomyces strains were initially screened for growth on media containing 100 mM glucose and 1.5 mg ml-1 furfural. Five strains were identified that showed a significant tolerance to growth in the presence of furfural and these were then screened for growth and ethanol production in the presence of increasing amounts (0.1-4 mg ml-1) of furfural. Conclusions Of the five furfural tolerant strains S. cerevisiae NCYC 3451 displayed the greatest furfural resistance, and was able to grow in the presence of up to 3.0 mg ml-1 furfural. Furthermore, ethanol production in this strain did not appear to be inhibited by furfural, with the highest ethanol yield observed at 3.0 mg ml-1 furfural. Although furfural resistance was not found to be a trait specific to any one particular lineage or population, three of the strains were isolated from environments where they might be continually exposed to low levels of furfural through the on-going natural degradation of lignocelluloses, and would therefore develop elevated levels of resistance to these furan compounds. Thus these strains represent good candidates for future studies of genetic variation relevant to understanding and manipulating furfural resistance and in the development of tolerant ethanologenic yeast strains for use in bioethanol production from lignocellulose processing

Surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever in wild boar – a comprehensive evaluation study to ensure powerful surveillance

Surveillance of Classical Swine Fever (CSF) should not only focus on livestock, but must also include wild boar. To prevent disease transmission into commercial pig herds, it is therefore vital to have knowledge about the disease status in wild boar. In the present study, we performed a comprehensive evaluation of alternative surveillance strategies for Classical Swine Fever (CSF) in wild boar and compared them with the currently implemented conventional approach. The evaluation protocol was designed using the EVA tool, a decision support tool to help in the development of an economic and epidemiological evaluation protocol for surveillance. To evaluate the effectiveness of the surveillance strategies, we investigated their sensitivity and timeliness. Acceptability was analysed and finally, the cost-effectiveness of the surveillance strategies was determined. We developed 69 surveillance strategies for comparative evaluation between the existing approach and the novel proposed strategies. Sampling only within sub-adults resulted in a better acceptability and timeliness than the currently implemented strategy. Strategies that were completely based on passive surveillance performance did not achieve the desired detection probability of 95%. In conclusion, the results of the study suggest that risk-based approaches can be an option to design more effective CSF surveillance strategies in wild boar

Integrated stratigraphy of the Priabonian (upper Eocene) Urtsadzor section, Armenia

The transition from the Bartonian to the Priabonian, as traditionally understood, has long been associated with a series of extinctions and originations in several microfossil groups. The planktonic foraminifer genus Morozovelloides and large species of Acarinina suffered a rapid global extinction, as did many radiolarians. Calcareous nannofossils show several assemblage changes including the acme beginning of Cribrocentrum erbae and the lowest and highest occurrences of Chiasmolithus oamaruensis and C. grandis respectively. In shallow water environments, larger foraminifera also show an extinction among large species of Nummulites, as well as the first occurrences of the stratigraphically important genus Spiroclypeus. However, the correlation between shallow and deep water records remains uncertain, as do the mechanisms driving these biotic events. Here we present the results of a new integrated stratigraphical study (calcareous nannofossils, planktonic foraminifera, larger benthic foraminifera, and low-resolution magnetostratigraphy) of the Urtsadzor section in south-western Armenia which appears to be continuous through this interval. The Urtsadzor section consists of calcareous siltstones rich in micro- and nannofossils, with interbedded limestones containing abundant larger benthic foraminifera. Our new data enable us to correlate larger foraminiferal events with global plankton biostratigraphy, in a section outside of southwest Europe where most previous correlations have been based. At Urtsadzor, the large Nummulites species of N. millecaput-group are present throughout the whole section but decrease in abundance toward the top. The first occurrence of Spiroclypeus, also occurs in the upper part of the section, marking the SBZ 18/19 boundary. These events are associated with the phylogenetic development of the Nummulites fabianii and Heterostegina reticulata lineages. However, the calcareous plankton biostratigraphy indicates the section is well within the Priabonian; within planktonic foraminiferal Zones E14 and E15 and calcareous nannoplankton Zones CNE 18 and CNE 19. These results indicate larger foraminiferal events occur well above the planktonic foraminiferal extinction level and nannofossil assemblage changes indicating the events are not synchronous across groups, with implications for biostratigraphy and recognition of the basal Priabonian in different depositional settings and regions

A systematic review of interventions to promote physical activity in six Gulf countries.

Physical activity (PA) levels are low in Gulf Cooperation Council countries (GCC; Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). We carried out a systematic review (PROSPERO registration number 131817) to assess the effect of interventions to increase PA levels in this region. We also assessed their effects on anthropometry and cardiovascular risk. A systematic search of six databases (Medline, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, CINAHL, Cochrane, Web of Science) was performed to identify randomized and non-randomized intervention studies performed in adults and children published between January 1985 and November 2020. We included studies published in English or Arabic, and included PA interventions regardless of setting, delivery, and duration. The primary outcomes were changes in PA duration and intensity. Secondary outcomes included anthropometric measures (e.g., weight, body mass index) and cardiovascular risk profiles (e.g., lipid measures, blood glucose). Two independent reviewers screened studies in accordance with pre-determined criteria, extracted data, assessed risk of bias (Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 and Newcastle Ottawa Scale) and undertook a narrative synthesis. From 13,026 records identified, 14 studies were included. Nine studies focussed exclusively on changing PA behaviour, resulting in statistically significant increases in step count ranging from an additional 757 steps/day (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-1,513) to 3,853 steps/day (95% CI 3,703-4,002). Five identified studies were multi-component lifestyle interventions, targeting people at higher risk (due to obesity or type 2 diabetes). Evidence for increases in PA from multi-component studies was limited, although improvements were seen in outcomes e.g. body weight and blood lipid levels. In conclusion, relatively few studies have focussed on changing PA behaviour, despite the urgent need in the GCC. Limited evidence suggested that pedometer-based programmes encouraging step counting and walking were effective in promoting PA, at least in the short term. Policies to roll out such interventions should be implemented and evaluated

Assessing Children’s Dietary Pesticide Exposure: Direct Measurement of Pesticide Residues in 24-Hr Duplicate Food Samples

Background: The data presented here are a response to calls for more direct measurements of pesticide residues in foods consumed by children and provide an opportunity to compare direct measures of pesticide residues in foods representing actual consumption with those reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Pesticide Data Program. Objective: We measured pesticide residues in 24-hr duplicate food samples collected from a group of 46 young children participating in the Children’s Pesticide Exposure Study (CPES). Methods: Parents were instructed to collect 24-hr duplicate food samples of all conventional fruits, vegetables, and fruit juices equal to the quantity consumed by their children, similarly prewashed/prepared, and from the same source or batch. Individual or composite food items were analyzed for organophosphate (OP) and pyrethroid insecticide residues. Results: We collected a total of 239 24-hr duplicate food samples collected from the 46 CPES children. We found 14% or 5% of those food samples contained at least one OP or pyrethroid insecticide, respectively. We measured a total of 11 OP insecticides, at levels ranging from 1 to 387 ng/g, and three pyrethroid insecticides, at levels ranging from 2 to 1,133 ng/g, in children’s food samples. We found that many of the food items consumed by the CPES children were also on the list of the most contaminated food commodities reported by the Environmental Working Group. Conclusions: The frequent consumption of food commodities with episodic presence of pesticide residues that are suspected to cause developmental and neurological effects in young children supports the need for further mitigation