Systemic Risk and the Ripple Effect in the Supply Chain

Supply chains are highly complex systems, and disruptions may ripple through these systems in unexpected ways, but they may also start in unexpected ways. We investigate the causes of ripple effect through the lens of systemic risk. We derive supply chain systemic risk from the finance discipline where sources of risk are found in systemic risk-taking, contagion, and amplification mechanisms. In a supply chain context, we identify three dimensions that influence systemic risk, the nature of a disruption, the structure, and dependency of the supply chain, and the decision-making. Within these three dimensions, there are several factors including correlation of risk, compounding effects, cyclical linkages, counterparty risk, herding behavior, and misaligned incentives. These factors are often invisible to decision makers, and they may operate in tandem to exacerbate ripple effect. We highlight these systemic risks, and we encourage further research to understand their nature and to mitigate their effect

Trends of increase in western medical services in traditional medicine hospitals in china

Background: Compare changes in types of hospital service revenues between traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) hospitals and Western-medicine based general hospitals. Methods: 97 TCM hospitals and 103 general hospitals were surveyed in years of 2000 and 2004. Six types of medical service revenue between the two types of hospitals were compared overtime. The national statistics from 1999 to 2008 were also used as complementary evidence. Results: For TCM hospitals, the percentage of service revenue from Western medicine increased from 44.3% to 47.4% while the percentage of service revenue from TCM declined from 26.4% to 18.8% from 1999 to 2004. Percentages of revenue from laboratory tests and surgical procedures for both types of hospitals increased and the discrepancy between the two types of hospitals was narrowed from 1999 to 2004. For TCM hospitals, revenues from laboratory tests increased from 3.64% to 5.06% and revenues from surgical procedures increased from 3.44% to 7.02%. General hospitals\u27 TCM drug revenue in outpatient care declined insignificantly from 5.26% to 3.87%, while the decline for the TCM hospitals was significant from 19.73% to 13.77%. The national statistics from 1999 to 2008 showed similar trends that the percentage of revenue from Western medicine for TCM hospitals increased from 59.6% in 1999 to 62.2% in 2003 and 66.1% in 2008 while the percentage of revenue from TCM for TCM hospitals decreased from 18.0% in 1999, 15.4% in 2003, and 13.7% in 2008. Conclusion: Western medicine has become a vital revenue source for TCM hospitals in the current Chinese health care environment where government subsidies to health care facilities have significantly declined. Policies need to encourage TCM hospitals to identify their own special and effective services, improve public perception, increase demand, strengthen financial sources, and ultimately make contributions to preserving one of the national treasures

Practice patterns of naturopathic physicians: results from a random survey of licensed practitioners in two US States

BACKGROUND: Despite the growing use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) by consumers in the U.S., little is known about the practice of CAM providers. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the practice patterns of naturopathic physicians in Washington State and Connecticut. METHODS: Telephone interviews were conducted with state-wide random samples of licensed naturopathic physicians and data were collected on consecutive patient visits in 1998 and 1999. The main outcome measures were: Sociodemographic, training and practice characteristics of naturopathic physicians; and demographics, reasons for visit, types of treatments, payment source and visit duration for patients. RESULT: One hundred and seventy practitioners were interviewed and 99 recorded data on a total of 1817 patient visits. Naturopathic physicians in Washington and Connecticut had similar demographic and practice characteristics. Both the practitioners and their patients were primarily White and female. Almost 75% of all naturopathic visits were for chronic complaints, most frequently fatigue, headache, and back symptoms. Complete blood counts, serum chemistries, lipids panels and stool analyses were ordered for 4% to 10% of visits. All other diagnostic tests were ordered less frequently. The most commonly prescribed naturopathic therapeutics were: botanical medicines (51% of visits in Connecticut, 43% in Washington), vitamins (41% and 43%), minerals (35% and 39%), homeopathy (29% and 19%) and allergy treatments (11% and 13%). The mean visit length was about 40 minutes. Approximately half the visits were paid directly by the patient. CONCLUSION: This study provides information that will help other health care providers, patients and policy makers better understand the nature of naturopathic care

Complementary and conventional medicine: a concept map

BACKGROUND: Despite the substantive literature from survey research that has accumulated on complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) in the United States and elsewhere, very little research has been done to assess conceptual domains that CAM and conventional providers would emphasize in CAM survey studies. The objective of this study is to describe and interpret the results of concept mapping with conventional and CAM practitioners from a variety of backgrounds on the topic of CAM. METHODS: Concept mapping, including free sorts, ratings, and multidimensional scaling was used to organize conceptual domains relevant to CAM into a visual "cluster map." The panel consisted of CAM providers, conventional providers, and university faculty, and was convened to help formulate conceptual domains to guide the development of a CAM survey for use with United States military veterans. RESULTS: Eight conceptual clusters were identified: 1) Self-assessment, Self-care, and Quality of Life; 2) Health Status, Health Behaviors; 3) Self-assessment of Health; 4) Practical/Economic/ Environmental Concerns; 5) Needs Assessment; 6) CAM vs. Conventional Medicine; 7) Knowledge of CAM; and 8) Experience with CAM. The clusters suggest panelists saw interactions between CAM and conventional medicine as a critical component of the current medical landscape. CONCLUSIONS: Concept mapping provided insight into how CAM and conventional providers view the domain of health care, and was shown to be a useful tool in the formulation of CAM-related conceptual domains

Clinical and biochemical effects of a combination botanical product (ClearGuard™) for allergy: a pilot randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Botanical products are frequently used for treatment of nasal allergy. Three of these substances, <it>Cinnamomum zeylanicum</it>, <it>Malpighia glabra</it>, and <it>Bidens pilosa</it>, have been shown to have a number of anti-allergic properties <it>in-vitro</it>. The current study was conducted to determine the effects of these combined ingredients upon the nasal response to allergen challenge in patients with seasonal allergic rhinitis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Twenty subjects were randomized to receive the combination botanical product, (CBP) 2 tablets three times a day, loratadine, 10 mg once a day in the morning, or placebo, using a randomized, double-blinded crossover design. Following 2 days of each treatment and during the third day of treatment, subjects underwent a nasal allergen challenge (NAC), in which nasal symptoms were assessed after each challenge dose and every 2 hours for 8 hours. Nasal lavage fluid was assessed for tryptase, prostaglandin D2, and leukotriene E4 concentrations and inflammatory cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Loratadine significantly reduced the total nasal symptom score during the NAC compared with placebo (P = 0.04) while the CBP did not. During the 8 hour period following NAC, loratadine and the CBP both reduced NSS compared with placebo (P = 0.034 and P = 0.029, respectively). Analysis of nasal lavage fluid demonstrated that the CBP prevented the increase in prostaglandin D2 release following NAC, while neither loratadine nor placebo had this effect. None of the treatments significantly affected tryptase or leukotriene E4 release or inflammatory cell infiltration.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The CBP significantly reduced NSS during the 8 hours following NAC and marginally inhibited the release of prostaglandin D2 into nasal lavage fluid, suggesting potential clinical utility in patients with allergic rhinitis.</p

A comparative analysis of chiropractic and general practitioner patients in North America: Findings from the joint Canada/United States survey of health, 2002–03

BACKGROUND: Scientifically rigorous general population-based studies comparing chiropractic with primary-care medical patients within and between countries have not been published. The objective of this study is to compare care seekers of doctors of chiropractic (DCs) and general practitioners (GPs) in the United States and Canada on a comprehensive set of sociodemographic, quality of life, and health-related variables. METHODS: Data are from the Joint Canada/U.S. Survey of Health (JCUSH), 2002–03, a random sample of adults in Canada (N = 3505) and the U.S. (N = 5183). Respondents were categorized according to their pattern of health-care use in the past year. Distributions, percentages, and estimates (adjusted odds ratios) weighted to reflect the complex survey design were produced. RESULTS: Nearly 80% of respondents sought care from GPs; 12% sought DC care. Compared with GP only patients, DC patients in both countries tend to be under 65 and white, with arthritis and disabling back or neck pain. U.S. DC patients are more likely than GP only patients to be obese and to lack a regular doctor; Canadian DC patients are more likely than GP only patients to be college educated, to have higher incomes, and dissatisfied with MD care. Compared with seekers of both GP and DC care, DC only patients in both countries have fewer chronic conditions, take fewer drugs, and have no regular doctor. U.S. DC only patients are more likely than GP+DC patients to be uninsured and dissatisfied with health care; Canadian DC only patients are more likely than GP+DC patients to be under 45, male, less educated, smokers, and not obese, without disabling back or neck pain, on fewer drugs, and lacking a regular doctor. CONCLUSION: Chiropractic and GP patients are dissimilar in both Canada and the U.S., with key differences between countries and between DC patients who do and do not seek care from GPs. Such variation has broad and potentially far-reaching health policy and research implications

Magnetic resonance imaging in patients with meningitis induced hearing loss

The aim of this multicentre study was to compare T1 with T2 weighted MRI scans of the labyrinth after meningitis and to investigate whether waiting with scanning improved the reliability of diagnosing an ongoing process such as cochlear osteogenesis. Forty-five patients were included who suffered from meningitis induced hearing loss (radiological imaging <1 year after meningitis). Twenty-one gadolinium enhanced T1 and 45 T2 weighted MRI scans were scored by two radiologists regarding the condition of the labyrinth. These radiological observations were compared with the condition of the cochlea as described during cochlear implantation. A higher percentage of agreement with surgery was found for T2 (both radiologists 73%) than for T1 weighted MRI scans (radiologist 1: 62%, radiologist 2: 67%), but this difference is not significant. There was no significant difference between early (0–3 months) and late (>3 months) scanning, showing that radiological imaging soon after meningitis allows early diagnosis without suffering from a lower agreement with surgical findings

Depression, anxiety, stress, social interaction and health-related quality of life in men and women with unexplained chest pain

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Unexplained chest pain (UCP) is a common reason for emergency hospital admission and generates considerable health-care costs for society. Even though prior research indicates that psychological problems and impaired quality of life are common among UCP patients, there is lack of knowledge comparing UCP patients with a reference group from the general population. The aim of this study was to analyse differences between men and women with UCP and a reference group in terms of psychosocial factors as depression, anxiety, stress, social interaction and health-related quality of life (HRQOL).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A self-administered questionnaire about psychosocial factors was completed by 127 men and 104 women with acute UCP admitted consecutively to the Emergency Department (ED) or as in-patients on a medical ward. A reference group from the general population, 490 men and 579 women, participants in the INTERGENE study and free of clinical heart disease, were selected.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The UCP patients were more likely to be immigrants, have a sedentary lifestyle, report stress at work and have symptoms of depression and trait-anxiety compared with the reference group. After adjustment for differences in age, smoking, hypertension and diabetes, these factors were still significantly more common among patients with UCP. In a stepwise multivariate model with mutual adjustment for psychosocial factors, being an immigrant was associated with a more than twofold risk in both sexes. Stress at work was associated with an almost fourfold increase in risk among men, whereas there was no independent impact for women. In contrast, depression only emerged as an independent risk factor in women. Trait-anxiety and a low level of social interaction were not independently associated with risk in either men or women. Patients with UCP were two to five times more likely to have low scores for HRQOL.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Both men and women with UCP had higher depression scores than referents, but an independent association was only found in women. Among men, perceived stress at work emerged as the only psychosocial variable significantly associated with UCP.</p

Do 'alternative' help-seeking strategies affect primary care service use? A survey of help-seeking for mental distress

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Waterborne microbial risk assessment : a population-based dose-response function for Giardia spp. (E.MI.R.A study)

BACKGROUND: Dose-response parameters based on clinical challenges are frequently used to assess the health impact of protozoa in drinking water. We compare the risk estimates associated with Giardia in drinking water derived from the dose-response parameter published in the literature and the incidence of acute digestive conditions (ADC) measured in the framework of an epidemiological study in a general population. METHODS: The study combined a daily follow-up of digestive morbidity among a panel of 544 volunteers and a microbiological surveillance of tap water. The relationship between incidence of ADC and concentrations of Giardia cysts was modeled with Generalized Estimating Equations, adjusting on community, age, tap water intake, presence of bacterial indicators, and genetic markers of viruses. The quantitative estimate of Giardia dose was the product of the declared amount of drinking water intake (in L) by the logarithm of cysts concentrations. RESULTS: The Odds Ratio for one unit of dose [OR = 1.76 (95% CI: 1.21, 2.55)] showed a very good consistency with the risk assessment estimate computed after the literature dose-response, provided application of a 20 % abatement factor to the cysts counts that were measured in the epidemiological study. Doing so, a daily water intake of 2 L and a Giardia concentration of 10 cysts/100 L, would yield an estimated relative excess risk of 12 % according to the Rendtorff model, against 11 % when multiplying the baseline rate of ADC by the corresponding OR. This abatement parameter encompasses uncertainties associated with germ viability, infectivity and virulence in natural settings. CONCLUSION: The dose-response function for waterborne Giardia risk derived from clinical experiments is consistent with epidemiological data. However, much remains to be learned about key characteristics that may heavily influence quantitative risk assessment results