The role of static stress diffusion in the spatio-temporal organization of aftershocks

We investigate the spatial distribution of aftershocks and we find that aftershock linear density exhibits a maximum, that depends on the mainshock magnitude, followed by a power law decay. The exponent controlling the asymptotic decay and the fractal dimensionality of epicenters clearly indicate triggering by static stress. The non monotonic behavior of the linear density and its dependence on the mainshock magnitude can be interpreted in terms of diffusion of static stress. This is supported by the power law growth with exponent $H\simeq 0.5$ of the average main-aftershock distance. Implementing static stress diffusion within a stochastic model for aftershock occurrence we are able to reproduce aftershock linear density spatial decay, its dependence on the mainshock magnitude and its evolution in time.Comment: 4 figure

Time-energy correlations in solar flare occurrence

The existence of time-energy correlations in flare occurrence is still an open and much debated problem. This study addresses the question whether statistically significant correlations are present between energies of successive flares as well as energies and waiting times. We analyze the GOES catalog with a statistical approach based on the comparison of the real catalog with a reshuffled one where energies are decorrelated. This analysis reduces the effect of background activity and is able to reveal the role of obscuration. We show the existence of non-trivial correlations between waiting times and energies, as well as between energies of subsequent flares. More precisely, we find that flares close in time tend to have the second event with large energy. Moreover, after large flares the flaring rate significantly increases, together with the probability of other large flares. Results suggest that correlations between energies and waiting times are a physical property and not an effect of obscuration. These findings could give important information on the mechanisms for energy storage and release in the solar corona

Synchronized oscillations and acoustic fluidization in confined granular materials

According to the acoustic fluidization hypothesis, elastic waves at a characteristic frequency form inside seismic faults even in the absence of an external perturbation. These waves are able to generate a normal stress which contrasts the confining pressure and promotes failure. Here, we study the mechanisms responsible for this wave activation via numerical simulations of a granular fault model. We observe the particles belonging to the percolating backbone, which sustains the stress, to perform synchronized oscillations over ellipticlike trajectories in the fault plane. These oscillations occur at the characteristic frequency of acoustic fluidization. As the applied shear stress increases, these oscillations become perpendicular to the fault plane just before the system fails, opposing the confining pressure, consistently with the acoustic fluidization scenario. The same change of orientation can be induced by external perturbations at the acoustic fluidization frequency

Induced and endogenous acoustic oscillations in granular faults

The frictional properties of disordered systems are affected by external perturbations. These perturbations usually weaken the system by reducing the macroscopic friction coefficient. This friction reduction is of particular interest in the case of disordered systems composed of granular particles confined between two plates, as this is a simple model of seismic fault. Indeed, in the geophysical context frictional weakening could explain the unexpected weakness of some faults, as well as earthquake remote triggering. In this manuscript we review recent results concerning the response of confined granular systems to external perturbations, considering the different mechanisms by which the perturbation could weaken a system, the relevance of the frictional reduction to earthquakes, as well as discussing the intriguing scenario whereby the weakening is not monotonic in the perturbation frequency, so that a re-entrant transition is observed, as the system first enters a fluidized state and then returns to a frictional state.Comment: 15 pages, 12 figure

Generic features of the fluctuation dissipation relation in coarsening systems

The integrated response function in phase-ordering systems with scalar, vector, conserved and non conserved order parameter is studied at various space dimensionalities. Assuming scaling of the aging contribution $\chi_{ag} (t,t_w)= t_w ^{-a_\chi} \hat \chi (t/t_w)$ we obtain, by numerical simulations and analytical arguments, the phenomenological formula describing the dimensionality dependence of $a_\chi$ in all cases considered. The primary result is that $a_\chi$ vanishes continuously as $d$ approaches the lower critical dimensionality $d_L$. This implies that i) the existence of a non trivial fluctuation dissipation relation and ii) the failure of the connection between statics and dynamics are generic features of phase ordering at $d_L$.Comment: 6 pages, 5 figure

Memory in Self Organized Criticality

Many natural phenomena exhibit power law behaviour in the distribution of event size. This scaling is successfully reproduced by Self Organized Criticality (SOC). On the other hand, temporal occurrence in SOC models has a Poisson-like statistics, i.e. exponential behaviour in the inter-event time distribution, in contrast with experimental observations. We present a SOC model with memory: events are nucleated not only as a consequence of the instantaneous value of the local field with respect to the firing threshold, but on the basis of the whole history of the system. The model is able to reproduce the complex behaviour of inter-event time distribution, in excellent agreement with experimental seismic data

Estimating the generation interval from the incidence rate, the optimal quarantine duration and the efficiency of fast switching periodic protocols for COVID‑19

The transmissibility of an infectious disease is usually quantified in terms of the reproduction number Rt representing, at a given time, the average number of secondary cases caused by an infected individual. Recent studies have enlightened the central role played by w(z), the distribution of generation times z, namely the time between successive infections in a transmission chain. In standard approaches this quantity is usually substituted by the distribution of serial intervals, which is obtained by contact tracing after measuring the time between onset of symptoms in successive cases. Unfortunately, this substitution can cause important biases in the estimate of Rt . Here we present a novel method which allows us to simultaneously obtain the optimal functional form of w(z) together with the daily evolution of Rt , over the course of an epidemic. The method uses, as unique information, the daily series of incidence rate and thus overcomes biases present in standard approaches. We apply our method to one year of data from COVID-19 officially reported cases in the 21 Italian regions, since the first confirmed case on February 2020. We find that w(z) has mean value z ≃ 6 days with a standard deviation a ≃ 1 day, for all Italian regions, and these values are stable even if one considers only the first 10 days of data recording. This indicates that an estimate of the most relevant transmission parameters can be already available in the early stage of a pandemic. We use this information to obtain the optimal quarantine duration and to demonstrate that, in the case of COVID-19, post-lockdown mitigation policies, such as fast periodic switching and/or alternating quarantine, can be very efficient

Interface fluctuations, bulk fluctuations and dimensionality in the off-equilibrium response of coarsening systems

The relationship between statics and dynamics proposed by Franz, Mezard, Parisi and Peliti (FMPP) for slowly relaxing systems [Phys.Rev.Lett. {\bf 81}, 1758 (1998)] is investigated in the framework of non disordered coarsening systems. Separating the bulk from interface response we find that for statics to be retrievable from dynamics the interface contribution must be asymptotically negligible. How fast this happens depends on dimensionality. There exists a critical dimensionality above which the interface response vanishes like the interface density and below which it vanishes more slowly. At $d=1$ the interface response does not vanish leading to the violation of the FMPP scheme. This behavior is explained in terms of the competition between curvature driven and field driven interface motion.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures. Significantly improved version of the paper with new results, new numerical simulations and new figure

Crossover in Growth Law and Violation of Superuniversality in the Random Field Ising Model

We study the nonconserved phase ordering dynamics of the d = 2, 3 random field Ising model, quenched to below the critical temperature. Motivated by the puzzling results of previous work in two and three di- mensions, reporting a crossover from power-law to logarithmic growth, together with superuniversal behavior of the correlation function, we have undertaken a careful investigation of both the domain growth law and the autocorrelation function. Our main results are as follows: We confirm the crossover to asymptotic logarithmic behavior in the growth law, but, at variance with previous findings, the exponent in the preasymptotic power law is disorder-dependent, rather than being the one of the pure system. Furthermore, we find that the autocorre- lation function does not display superuniversal behavior. This restores consistency with previous results for the d = 1 system, and fits nicely into the unifying scaling scheme we have recently proposed in the study of the random bond Ising model.Comment: To be published in Physical Review

On the influence of time and space correlations on the next earthquake magnitude

A crucial point in the debate on feasibility of earthquake prediction is the dependence of an earthquake magnitude from past seismicity. Indeed, whilst clustering in time and space is widely accepted, much more questionable is the existence of magnitude correlations. The standard approach generally assumes that magnitudes are independent and therefore in principle unpredictable. Here we show the existence of clustering in magnitude: earthquakes occur with higher probability close in time, space and magnitude to previous events. More precisely, the next earthquake tends to have a magnitude similar but smaller than the previous one. A dynamical scaling relation between magnitude, time and space distances reproduces the complex pattern of magnitude, spatial and temporal correlations observed in experimental seismic catalogs.Comment: 4 Figure