Impact Assessment of European Structural Funds in Andalusia - a CGE Approach

In this work we carry out an impact analysis of the European Structural Funds (ESF) to the object of assessing their effect on the GDP, the level of prices or the consumers’ income on the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. Accordingly, we present an Applied General Equilibrium Model (AGEM_A) and we compare the reception scenario of regional funds with a hypothetical situation where this financial support has been removed. The AGEM_A has been built by supplementing the statistical information provided by the Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia corresponding to 1990, 1995 and 1999, with the data included in the three Community Support Frameworks (CSF) approved by the European Commission.

VALIDATING POLICY INDUCED ECONOMIC CHANGE USING SEQUENTIAL GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM SAMs

This paper explores the capacity of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data for an economy. Starting from an empirically built regional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), a first stage CGE calibrated model is constructed. The model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to European Union Structural Funds 2000-2005 invested into the region of Andalusia in the south of Spain. The counterfactual equilibrium is translated into a virtual SAM, conformal with the initial one, which is in turn reused to calibrate the next stage in the CGE modeling. And so on until the last stage is reached and all European funds yearly invested have been absorbed by the economy. Since at the end of the process another empirical SAM is available, it can be compared with the terminally produced virtual SAM. The comparison shows the sequence of SAMs to provide a very good fit to the actual data in the empirical SAM. Regional GDP and unemployment rates are two examples of the close approximation. With this novel approach we evaluate, from the methodological viewpoint, the projection capabilities of CGE modeling and at the same time we provide an empirical assessment of the said European policies.Social accounting matrices, applied general equilibrium, impact analysis, European regional policy.

A price model to assess the inflationary effects of the European Regional Policy

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are databases that complete the information provided by the input-output tables. They study the intersectorial relationships of an economy, the behaviour of consumers, the government or the foreign sector, while being able to close the income flow of rent. In this work, we deal with the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) in Andalusia, a Spanish region classified as Objective 1 by the European Regional policy. We apply the Leontief model on the SAMs for 1990, 1995 and 1999 to get the gross output fall when we remove these regional funds. Furthermore, we develop a price model to assess the impact of this financial support on aggregate and sectorial prices.Social Accounting Matrix, Regional Accounting, Structural Analysis.

Structural Path Analysis: Applications to Structural Changes in the Andalusian economy (1990-1999)

Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are an useful tool that enables to get extenser information than Input-Output analysis as far as they work not only with an economy´s intersectorial relations, but also with consumers' behaviour, government or foreign sector; reflecting the income flow of rent. In this paper, we use Social Accounting Matrices for Andalusia for years 1990, 1995 y 1999, that we got from previous works. With this information we use "path analysis" technique to obtain the main changes in the productive structure and demand in Andalusia for the last ten years. Those changes will be represented in a three-dimensional picture. We also want to know which are the sectors that have strongly contributed to regional economic growth. Finally we measure the influence of sectorial shocks on themselves and also on the other sectors of this regional economy. Keywords: social accounting matrix, regional accounting, structural analysis. JEL: C67, D57, R15.

The Structural Funds in Andalusia for the Programming Period 2014-20. Time for Tightening Belts

During the period 2014–2020 it will be the first time since Spain joined the European Economic Community that the Southern region of Andalusia will not be considered as one of the Objective 1 priority areas for the European Regional Policy. This paper analyses the economic impact of the foreseeable withdrawal of an important amount of European Structural Funds in the region. Our point is to develop a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess, under different simulation scenarios, the effects of the removal of this funding on the main regional economic indicators, specially focusing on GDP growth, a key variable for the future of the region

Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene mutations and glutathione S-transferase null genotypes in cystic fibrosis patients in Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effects that mutation of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) gene and deletion of the glutathione S-transferase (GST) genes mu-1 (GSTM1) and theta-1 (GSTT1) have on the clinical course of cystic fibrosis (CF) in patients residing in the southeastern region of Brazil. METHODS: The study sample consisted of all consecutive CF patients treated at the Hospital de Clínicas School of Medical Sciences of the State University at Campinas between March of 2002 and March of 2005. We included 66 CF patients. Genomic DNA was analyzed by polymerase chain reaction and restriction endonuclease digestion for the identification of the genotypes. RESULTS: The DF508 mutation of the CFTR gene was found in 44 patients (66.7%). The null genotypes GSTM1, GSTT1 and GSTM1/GSTT1 were found in 40.9%, 15.2%, and 3.0% of the patients, respectively. The DF508 CFTR mutation was more common in patients diagnosed with CF before 2.5 years of age than in those diagnosed later (75.5% vs. 41.2%; p = 0.008). The frequency of the DF508 CFTR mutation, as well as of the GSTM1 and GSTT1 genotypes, was not found to be associated with gender, ethnicity, pulmonary disease status, or pancreatic disease status. CONCLUSIONS: When the patients were stratified by clinical and epidemiological features, the frequencies of the GSTM1 and GSTT1 null genotypes were similar, suggesting that the inherited absence of these enzymatic pathways does not alter the course of CF. However, the high frequency of the DF508 CFTR mutation found in younger children suggests that it influences the age at diagnosis of CF in this region of Brazil.OBJETIVO: Determinar os efeitos que a mutação do gene cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) e da deleção dos genes glutationa S-transferase (GST) mu-1 (GSTM1) e teta-1 (GSTT1) têm na evolução clínica da fibrose cística (FC) em pacientes da região sudeste do Brasil. MÉTODOS: Entre março de 2002 e março de 2005, incluímos no estudo todos os pacientes com FC atendidos consecutivamente no Departamento de Pediatria do Hospital de Clínicas da Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da Universidade Estadual de Campinas. O DNA genômico de 66 pacientes com FC foi analisado por PCR e digestão com endonuclease de restrição para a identificação dos genótipos. RESULTADOS: A mutação ΔF508 do gene CFTR foi identificada em 44 (66,7%) pacientes. As deleções dos genes GSTM1, GSTT1 e da combinação nula GSTM1/GSTT1 foram identificadas em 40,9%, 15,2% e 3,0% dos pacientes, respectivamente. A mutação ΔF508 do gene CFTR foi mais comum em pacientes diagnosticados com FC antes dos 2,5 anos de idade que naqueles diagnosticados mais tarde (75,5% vs. 41,2%; p = 0,008). CONCLUSÕES: Foram observadas frequências similares da mutação ΔF508 do gene CFTR e dos genótipos GSTM1 e GSTT1 nos pacientes, independentemente do sexo, etnia ou status da doença pulmonar ou pancreática. Quando os pacientes foram estratificados por aspectos clínicos e epidemiológicos, as frequências dos genótipos GSTM1 e GSTT1 nulos foram semelhantes, sugerindo que a ausência herdada dessas vias enzimáticas não altera o curso da FC. Em contraste, a alta frequência da mutação ΔF508 no gene CFTR encontrada em pacientes mais jovens sugere que essa mutação influencia a idade no momento do diagnóstico de FC nessa região do país.505

The impact of European Structural Funds in the South of Spain

Over the last decades, the European Union has contributed to the development of poor regions of the Associate Members. This is the case of Andalusia, an Objective 1 region for the European regional policy in the south of Spain. In this paper we carry out an impact analysis of the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF), one of the most important Structural Funds, to the object of assessing its effect on aggregate and sectoral production, price indexes and consumers’ welfare. To this extend we compute an Applied General Equilibrium Model (AGEM) and we present a counterfactual analysis with simulations for three representative years: 1990, 1995 and 1999. We conclude that regional funding has deeply contributed to Andalusian regional development and the effectiveness of the funds seems to be larger for the last years of the study

Detection of Key Sectors by Using a Social Accounting Matrices: an Alternative Approach

This paper provides a new methodology for the detection of productive key sectors within a national (or regional) economy. In contrast with other methods applied so far, this one presents two innovations. Firstly, the so-called traditional models, which are based on building normalised backward and forward linkage indicators, are combined with more modern extraction models. Secondly, Social Accounting Matrices (SAM) are the databases used instead of Input-Output Tables (IOT), in order to determine those indicators. This paper attempts to show the advantages of this system by empirically applying it to the SAM for Spain in the year 2000, in order to detect the key sectors in Spanish economy

Using a CGE Model to Identify the Policy Trade-Off between Unemployment and Inflation: The Efficient Phillips Curve

This paper provides a new reading of a classical economic relation: the short-run Phillips curve. Our point is that, when dealing with inflation and unemployment, policy-making can be understood as a multicriteria decisionmaking problem. Hence, we use so-called multiobjective programming in connection with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to determine the combinations of policy instruments that provide efficient combinations of inflation and unemployment. This approach results in an alternative version of the Phillips curve labelled as efficient Phillips curve. Our aim is to present an application of CGE models to a new area of research that can be especially useful when addressing policy exercises with real data. We apply our methodological proposal within a particular regional economy, Andalusia, in the south of Spain. This tool can give some keys for policy advice and policy implementation in the fight against unemployment and inflation

A methodology to study price-quantity interactions in inputoutput modeling: an application to NextGenerationEU funds

The input-output (I-O) model is a widely employed tool for examining the interconnected structure of an economy and evaluating policy impacts. The current model consists of two separate and independent modules that describe the underlying factors governing quantities and prices. However, these modules lack any form of interaction, existing in isolated spheres where prices do not influence quantities, and quantities do not affect prices. Consequently, the I-O model has been questioned for its limited descriptive capability, particularly when a more comprehensive assessment is necessary. This study aims to enhance the explanatory capabilities of the I-O model by proposing a novel improvement. We introduce an extended version of the traditional I-O price and quantity models, which integrates them into a unified "price-quantity" model, establishing interdependencies between the two modules. This integrated model could be useful in advancing the explanatory capacity of I-O analysis, without having to resort to computational general equilibrium (CGE) models. As we know, CGE models are considerably more complex and resource-intensive in terms of data requirements compared to I-O models. To evaluate the impact of NextGenerationEU funds on the Spanish economy, we apply this integrated I-O model, utilizing data from a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for 2016, the latest year with available official I-O data