What are the drivers of recurrent cholera transmission in Nigeria? Evidence from a scoping review

Background: The 2018 cholera outbreak in Nigeria affected over half of the states in the country, and was characterised by high attack and case fatality rates. The country continues to record cholera cases and related deaths to date. However, there is a dearth of evidence on context-specific drivers and their operational mechanisms in mediating recurrent cholera transmission in Nigeria. This study therefore aimed to fill this important research gap, with a view to informing the design and implementation of appropriate preventive and control measures. / Methods: Four bibliographic literature sources (CINAHL (Plus with full text), Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed), and one journal (African Journals Online) were searched to retrieve documents relating to cholera transmission in Nigeria. Titles and abstracts of the identified documents were screened according to a predefined study protocol. Data extraction and bibliometric analysis of all eligible documents were conducted, which was followed by thematic and systematic analyses. / Results: Forty-five documents met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. The majority of the documents were peer-reviewed journal articles (89%) and conducted predominantly in the context of cholera epidemics (64%). The narrative analysis indicates that social, biological, environmental and climatic, health systems, and a combination of two or more factors appear to drive cholera transmission in Nigeria. Regarding operational dynamics, a substantial number of the identified drivers appear to be functionally interdependent of each other. / Conclusion: The drivers of recurring cholera transmission in Nigeria are diverse but functionally interdependent; thus, underlining the importance of adopting a multi-sectoral approach for cholera prevention and control

Detecting COVID-19 infection hotspots in England using large-scale self-reported data from a mobile application: a prospective, observational study

BACKGROUND: As many countries seek to slow the spread of COVID-19 without reimposing national restrictions, it has become important to track the disease at a local level to identify areas in need of targeted intervention. METHODS: In this prospective, observational study, we did modelling using longitudinal, self-reported data from users of the COVID Symptom Study app in England between March 24, and Sept 29, 2020. Beginning on April 28, in England, the Department of Health and Social Care allocated RT-PCR tests for COVID-19 to app users who logged themselves as healthy at least once in 9 days and then reported any symptom. We calculated incidence of COVID-19 using the invited swab (RT-PCR) tests reported in the app, and we estimated prevalence using a symptom-based method (using logistic regression) and a method based on both symptoms and swab test results. We used incidence rates to estimate the effective reproduction number, R(t), modelling the system as a Poisson process and using Markov Chain Monte-Carlo. We used three datasets to validate our models: the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Community Infection Survey, the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission (REACT-1) study, and UK Government testing data. We used geographically granular estimates to highlight regions with rapidly increasing case numbers, or hotspots. FINDINGS: From March 24 to Sept 29, 2020, a total of 2 873 726 users living in England signed up to use the app, of whom 2 842 732 (98·9%) provided valid age information and daily assessments. These users provided a total of 120 192 306 daily reports of their symptoms, and recorded the results of 169 682 invited swab tests. On a national level, our estimates of incidence and prevalence showed a similar sensitivity to changes to those reported in the ONS and REACT-1 studies. On Sept 28, 2020, we estimated an incidence of 15 841 (95% CI 14 023-17 885) daily cases, a prevalence of 0·53% (0·45-0·60), and R(t) of 1·17 (1·15-1·19) in England. On a geographically granular level, on Sept 28, 2020, we detected 15 (75%) of the 20 regions with highest incidence according to government test data. INTERPRETATION: Our method could help to detect rapid case increases in regions where government testing provision is lower. Self-reported data from mobile applications can provide an agile resource to inform policy makers during a quickly moving pandemic, serving as a complementary resource to more traditional instruments for disease surveillance. FUNDING: Zoe Global, UK Government Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council and British Heart Foundation, Alzheimer's Society, Chronic Disease Research Foundation

Descriptive epidemiology of cholera outbreak in Nigeria, January-November, 2018: implications for the global roadmap strategy

Background: The cholera outbreak in 2018 in Nigeria reaffirms its public health threat to the country. Evidence on the current epidemiology of cholera required for the design and implementation of appropriate interventions towards attaining the global roadmap strategic goals for cholera elimination however seems lacking. Thus, this study aimed at addressing this gap by describing the epidemiology of the 2018 cholera outbreak in Nigeria. Methods: This was a retrospective analysis of surveillance data collected between January 1st and November 19th, 2018. A cholera case was defined as an individual aged 2 years or older presenting with acute watery diarrhoea and severe dehydration or dying from acute watery diarrhoea. Descriptive analyses were performed and presented with respect to person, time and place using appropriate statistics. Results: There were 43,996 cholera cases and 836 cholera deaths across 20 states in Nigeria during the outbreak period, with an attack rate (AR) of 127.43/100,000 population and a case fatality rate (CFR) of 1.90%. Individuals aged 15 years or older (47.76%) were the most affected age group, but the proportion of affected males and females was about the same (49.00 and 51.00% respectively). The outbreak was characterised by four distinct epidemic waves, with higher number of deaths recorded in the third and fourth waves. States from the north-west and north-east regions of the country recorded the highest ARs while those from the north-central recorded the highest CFRs. Conclusion: The severity and wide-geographical distribution of cholera cases and deaths during the 2018 outbreak are indicative of an elevated burden, which was more notable in the northern region of the country. Overall, the findings reaffirm the strategic role of a multi-sectoral approach in the design and implementation of public health interventions aimed at preventing and controlling cholera in Nigeri

Effects of prenatal food and micronutrient supplementation on child growth from birth to 54 months of age: a randomized trial in Bangladesh

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>There is a lack of information on the optimal timing of food supplementation to malnourished pregnant women and possible combined effects of food and multiple micronutrient supplementations (MMS) on their offspring's growth. We evaluated the effects of prenatal food and micronutrient interventions on postnatal child growth. The hypothesis was that prenatal MMS and early invitation to food supplementation would increase physical growth in the offspring during 0-54 months and a combination of these interventions would further improve these outcomes.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In the large, randomized MINIMat trial (Maternal and Infant Nutrition Interventions in Matlab), Bangladesh, 4436 pregnant women were enrolled between November 2001 and October 2003 and their children were followed until March 2009. Participants were randomized into six groups comprising 30 mg Fe and 400 μg folic acid (Fe30F), 60 mg Fe and 400 μg folic acid (Fe60F) or MMS combined with either an early (immediately after identification of pregnancy) or a later usual (at the time of their choosing, i.e., usual care in this community) program invitation to food supplementation. The anthropometry of 3267 children was followed from birth to 54 months, and 2735 children were available for analysis at 54 months.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>There were no differences in characteristics of mothers and households among the different intervention groups. The average birth weight was 2694 g and birth length was 47.7 cm, with no difference among intervention groups. Early invitation to food supplementation (in comparison with usual invitation) reduced the proportion of stunting from early infancy up to 54 months for boys (p = 0.01), but not for girls (p = 0.31). MMS resulted in more stunting than standard Fe60F (p = 0.02). There was no interaction between the food and micronutrient supplementation on the growth outcome.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Early food supplementation in pregnancy reduced the occurrence of stunting during 0-54 months in boys, but not in girls, and prenatal MMS increased the proportion of stunting in boys. These effects on postnatal growth suggest programming effects in early fetal life.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>ISRCTN: <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN16581394">ISRCTN16581394</a></p

Hunter disease eClinic: interactive, computer-assisted, problem-based approach to independent learning about a rare genetic disease

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Computer-based teaching (CBT) is a well-known educational device, but it has never been applied systematically to the teaching of a complex, rare, genetic disease, such as Hunter disease (MPS II).</p> <p>Aim</p> <p>To develop interactive teaching software functioning as a virtual clinic for the management of MPS II.</p> <p>Implementation and Results</p> <p>The <it>Hunter disease eClinic</it>, a self-training, user-friendly educational software program, available at the Lysosomal Storage Research Group (<url>http://www.lysosomalstorageresearch.ca</url>), was developed using the Adobe Flash multimedia platform. It was designed to function both to provide a realistic, interactive virtual clinic and instantaneous access to supporting literature on Hunter disease. The <it>Hunter disease eClinic </it>consists of an <it>eBook </it>and an <it>eClinic</it>. The <it>eClinic </it>is the interactive virtual clinic component of the software. Within an environment resembling a real clinic, the trainee is instructed to perform a medical history, to examine the patient, and to order appropriate investigation. The program provides clinical data derived from the management of actual patients with Hunter disease. The <it>eBook </it>provides instantaneous, electronic access to a vast collection of reference information to provide detailed background clinical and basic science, including relevant biochemistry, physiology, and genetics. In the <it>eClinic</it>, the trainee is presented with quizzes designed to provide immediate feedback on both trainee effectiveness and efficiency. User feedback on the merits of the program was collected at several seminars and formal clinical rounds at several medical centres, primarily in Canada. In addition, online usage statistics were documented for a 2-year period. Feedback was consistently positive and confirmed the practical benefit of the program. The online English-language version is accessed daily by users from all over the world; a Japanese translation of the program is also available.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The Hunter disease <it>eClinic </it>employs a CBT model providing the trainee with realistic clinical problems, coupled with comprehensive basic and clinical reference information by instantaneous access to an electronic textbook, the <it>eBook</it>. The program was rated highly by attendees at national and international presentations. It provides a potential model for use as an educational approach to other rare genetic diseases.</p

Attributes and predictors of long COVID

Reports of long-lasting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms, the so-called ‘long COVID’, are rising but little is known about prevalence, risk factors or whether it is possible to predict a protracted course early in the disease. We analyzed data from 4,182 incident cases of COVID-19 in which individuals self-reported their symptoms prospectively in the COVID Symptom Study app. A total of 558 (13.3%) participants reported symptoms lasting ≥28 days, 189 (4.5%) for ≥8 weeks and 95 (2.3%) for ≥12 weeks. Long COVID was characterized by symptoms of fatigue, headache, dyspnea and anosmia and was more likely with increasing age and body mass index and female sex. Experiencing more than five symptoms during the first week of illness was associated with long COVID (odds ratio = 3.53 (2.76–4.50)). A simple model to distinguish between short COVID and long COVID at 7 days (total sample size, n = 2,149) showed an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of 76%, with replication in an independent sample of 2,472 individuals who were positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. This model could be used to identify individuals at risk of long COVID for trials of prevention or treatment and to plan education and rehabilitation services

Symptom clusters in COVID-19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom Study app

As no one symptom can predict disease severity or the need for dedicated medical support in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we asked whether documenting symptom time series over the first few days informs outcome. Unsupervised time series clustering over symptom presentation was performed on data collected from a training dataset of completed cases enlisted early from the COVID Symptom Study Smartphone application, yielding six distinct symptom presentations. Clustering was validated on an independent replication dataset between 1 and 28 May 2020. Using the first 5 days of symptom logging, the ROC-AUC (receiver operating characteristic - area under the curve) of need for respiratory support was 78.8%, substantially outperforming personal characteristics alone (ROC-AUC 69.5%). Such an approach could be used to monitor at-risk patients and predict medical resource requirements days before they are required

Training in childhood obesity management in the United States: a survey of pediatric, internal medicine-pediatrics and family medicine residency program directors

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Information about the availability and effectiveness of childhood obesity training during residency is limited.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We surveyed residency program directors from pediatric, internal medicine-pediatrics (IM-Peds), and family medicine residency programs between September 2007 and January 2008 about childhood obesity training offered in their programs.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The response rate was 42.2% (299/709) and ranged by specialty from 40.1% to 45.4%. Overall, 52.5% of respondents felt that childhood obesity training in residency was extremely important, and the majority of programs offered training in aspects of childhood obesity management including prevention (N = 240, 80.3%), diagnosis (N = 282, 94.3%), diagnosis of complications (N = 249, 83.3%), and treatment (N = 242, 80.9%). However, only 18.1% (N = 54) of programs had a formal childhood obesity curriculum with variability across specialties. Specifically, 35.5% of IM-Peds programs had a formal curriculum compared to only 22.6% of pediatric and 13.9% of family medicine programs (p < 0.01). Didactic instruction was the most commonly used training method but was rated as only somewhat effective by 67.9% of respondents using this method. The most frequently cited significant barrier to implementing childhood obesity training was competing curricular demands (58.5%).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>While most residents receive training in aspects of childhood obesity management, deficits may exist in training quality with a minority of programs offering a formal childhood obesity curriculum. Given the high prevalence of childhood obesity, a greater emphasis should be placed on development and use of effective training strategies suitable for all specialties training physicians to care for children.</p