Taking back control – but not just yet. The UK’s post-Brexit future is now in Germany’s hands

With each passing day since the referendum it gets more and more obvious that there is no plan or model emerging from Vote Leave to take the country forward into negotiations. The absurdity of this is obvious, but here Charles Lees looks at how this hands power to Germany, whilst also outlining the domestic power struggles that Angela Merkel is herself navigating

The People of June, 1848

http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/50851/1/70.pd

L. On Vaschy's or Pirani's method of comparing the self-inductance of a coil with the capacity of a condenser

n/

Rule makers and rule takers: On volkspartei adaptation and strategy

The last three decades has seen a steady electoral decline in the Volksparteien, culminating in the historically low share of the vote garnered by the CDU/CSU and SPD in the 2009 federal election. Despite this low vote share, and the poor performance of the SPD in particular, this article argues that party system change has in many ways enhanced the coalition options available to the Volksparteien. However, with reference to the notion of path dependence and the associated role of rules, norms and beliefs in locking in standard operating procedures, the article argues that the CDU/CSU is better placed than the SPD to take advantage of these new strategic options. This is because the CDU/CSU has been and remains more capable of shaping German party politics, whereas the SPD has internalised a more reactive role. The article examines why this is the case and discusses how the SPD might overcome path dependence and, in doing so, transform its strategic prospects

Coalitions: Beyond the politics of centrality?

This article explores a number of themes common to the work of Gordon Smith and to more formal models of coalition behaviour, with an empirical focus on coalition bargaining in the Federal Republic of Germany. It is argued that numerical formation criteria alone are poor predictors of actual coalition outcomes, and that institutional structures and norms - particularly partisan ideology - play a decisive role. Parallels are drawn between de Swaan's 'median legislator' theory and Smith's concept of the 'politics of centrality' and two conclusions are reached. First, that the dynamics of coalition behaviour have remained remarkably stable, despite changes in the numerical composition and ideological range of the German party system. Second, that the formation of the Red-Green coalition in 1998 does represent a change in those dynamics, but that there is no evidence to suggest that the Federal Republic is moving beyond the politics of centrality

How unusual is the United Kingdom Coalition (and what are the chances of it happening again)?

This article draws upon insights from theoretical and empirical studies of coalition behaviour in multiparty politics to examine the formation of the United Kingdom coalition following the general election of 6 May 2010. It argues that the formation of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition is not unusual in historical terms or in the context of contemporary European politics; and that although it is a break from the more recent pattern of postwar British politics it nevertheless does conform to expectations in the light of the coalition literature. The article also provides a comparative analysis of the impact of Britain's ‘First-Past-The-Post’ (FPTP) electoral system on party competition and an examination of the performance of the Alternative Vote (AV) system and argues that if the United Kingdom retains FPTP then a return to single-party government in 2015 is highly likely; and it is not inevitable that the introduction of AV would significantly advantage the Liberal Democrats

Coalition formation and the German party system

The article uses a thick synthetic analytical framework, derived from the established coalition literature to examine the process of coalition formation in the context of the German party system at the time of the 2009 federal election. It argues that increasing party system fragmentation and fluidity are long-term effects of the critical changes that took place between 1983 and the mid-1990s. These changes have shifted coalition power away from the smaller parties, and in particular the FDP, and towards the two Volksparteien. In terms of the coalition game, the article argues that outcomes cannot be explained by pure office-seeking but that these motives do become important once the desire to avoid unnecessary co-ordination costs, achieve ideological adjacency and reduce ideological range to a minimum has been satisfied. The article concludes by asserting that, rather than being a re-constitution of the default coalition model in Germany, the logic of the 2009 Black? Yellow coalition is consistent with more recent coalition games and therefore is a reflection of change rather than continuity