25 research outputs found

    Assessing the impact of COVID-19 measures on COPD management and patients: A simulation-based decision support tool for COPD services in the UK

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    © 2022 The Author(s) or their employer(s). Published by BMJ. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND licence, https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/Objectives To develop a computer-based decision support tool (DST) for key decision makers to safely explore the impact on chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) care of service changes driven by restrictions to prevent the spread of COVID-19.  Design The DST is powered by discrete event simulation which captures the entire patient pathway. To estimate the number of COPD admissions under different scenario settings, a regression model was developed and embedded into the tool. The tool can generate a wide range of patient-related and service-related outputs. Thus, the likely impact of possible changes (eg, COVID-19 restrictions and pandemic scenarios) on patients with COPD and care can be estimated.  Setting COPD services (including outpatient and inpatient departments) at a major provider in central London.  Results Four different scenarios (reflecting the UK government's Plan A, Plan B and Plan C in addition to a benchmark scenario) were run for 1 year. 856, 616 and 484 face-to-face appointments (among 1226 clinic visits) are expected in Plans A, B and C, respectively. Clinic visit quality in Plan A is found to be marginally better than in Plans B and C. Under coronavirus restrictions, lung function tests decreased more than 80% in Plan C as compared with Plan A. Fewer COPD exacerbation-related admissions were seen (284.1 Plan C vs 395.1 in the benchmark) associated with stricter restrictions. Although the results indicate that fewer quality-adjusted life years (in terms of COPD management) would be lost during more severe restrictions, the wider impact on physical and mental health must also be established.  Conclusions This DST will enable COPD services to examine how the latest developments in care delivery and management might impact their service during and beyond the COVID-19 pandemic, and in the event of future pandemics.Peer reviewe

    Examining HIV and Tuberculosis Using a Decision Support Systems Computer Simulation Model: The Case of the Russian Federation

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    The aim of this paper is to describe the development and use of a computer simulation model that can be used as a Decision Support System (DSS) to tackle the critical public health issues of the chronic diseases, HIV and HIV related Tuberculosis in the Russian Federation. The model was developed to enable health officials and decision makers to determine the impact of policies to control the chronic diseases spread in an area of Russia. This area, like many others in Russia and elsewhere, have recently witnessed an explosion of HIV infections and a worrying spread of the Multi Drug Resistant form of Tuberculosis (MDRTB). The conclusions drawn is that a high population coverage with Highly Active Anti Retroviral Treatment (HAART) (75% or higher), allied with high MDRTB cure rates, reduces cumulative deaths by 60%, with limited impact below this level. The contributions that this research offers are the development of a simulation model that can be applied as a DSS by public health officials and managers in order to inform policy making. By doing so, ways of best controlling the spread of HIV and MDRTB and reduce the mortality rate from these serious public health threats is provided

    Using system dynamics modelling to assess the economic efficiency of innovations in the public sector - a systematic review.

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    BackgroundDecision-makers for public policy are increasingly utilising systems approaches such as system dynamics (SD) modelling, which test alternative interventions or policies for their potential impact while accounting for complexity. These approaches, however, have not consistently included an economic efficiency analysis dimension. This systematic review aims to examine how, and in what ways, system dynamics modelling approaches incorporate economic efficiency analyses to inform decision-making on innovations (improvements in products, services, or processes) in the public sector, with a particular interest in health.Methods and findingsRelevant studies (n = 29) were identified through a systematic search and screening of four electronic databases and backward citation search, and analysed for key characteristics and themes related to the analytical methods applied. Economic efficiency analysis approaches within SD broadly fell into two categories: as embedded sub-models or as cost calculations based on the outputs of the SD model. Embdedded sub-models within a dynamic SD framework can reveal a clear allocation of costs and benefits to periods of time, whereas cost calculations based on the SD model outputs can be useful for high-level resource allocation decisions.ConclusionsThis systematic review reveals that SD modelling is not currently used to its full potential to evaluate the technical or allocative efficiency of public sector innovations, particularly in health. The limited reporting on the experience or methodological challenges of applying allocated efficiency analyses with SD, particularly with dynamic embedded models, hampers common learning lessons to draw from and build on. Further application and comprehensive reporting of this approach would be welcome to develop the methodology further

    A Discrete Event Simulation model to evaluate the treatment pathways of patients with Cataract in the United Kingdom

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    Background The number of people affected by cataract in the United Kingdom (UK) is growing rapidly due to ageing population. As the only way to treat cataract is through surgery, there is a high demand for this type of surgery and figures indicate that it is the most performed type of surgery in the UK. The National Health Service (NHS), which provides free of charge care in the UK, is under huge financial pressure due to budget austerity in the last decade. As the number of people affected by the disease is expected to grow significantly in coming years, the aim of this study is to evaluate whether the introduction of new processes and medical technologies will enable cataract services to cope with the demand within the NHS funding constraints. Methods We developed a Discrete Event Simulation model representing the cataract services pathways at Leicester Royal Infirmary Hospital. The model was inputted with data from national and local sources as well as from a surgery demand forecasting model developed in the study. The model was verified and validated with the participation of the cataract services clinical and management teams. Results Four scenarios involving increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot were simulated. Results indicate that the total number of surgeries per year could be increased by 40% at no extra cost. However, the rate of improvement decreases for increased number of surgeries per half-day surgery theatre slot due to a higher number of cancelled surgeries. Productivity is expected to improve as the total number of doctors and nurses hours will increase by 5 and 12% respectively. However, non-human resources such as pre-surgery rooms and post-surgery recovery chairs are under-utilized across all scenarios. Conclusions Using new processes and medical technologies for cataract surgery is a promising way to deal with the expected higher demand especially as this could be achieved with limited impact on costs. Non-human resources capacity need to be evenly levelled across the surgery pathway to improve their utilisation. The performance of cataract services could be improved by better communication with and proactive management of patients.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

    System Dynamics modelling to formulate policy interventions to optimise antibiotic prescribing in hospitals

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    © 2020 The Author(s). This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.Multiple strategies have been used in the National Health System (NHS) in England to reduce inappropriate antibiotic prescribing and consumption in order to tackle antimicrobial resistance. These strategies have included, among others, restricting dispensing, introduction of prescribing guidelines, use of clinical audit, and performance reviews as well as strategies aimed at changing the prescribing behaviour of clinicians. However, behavioural interventions have had limited effect in optimising doctors’ antibiotic prescribing practices. This study examines the determinants of decision-making for antibiotic prescribing in hospitals in the NHS. A system dynamics model was constructed to capture structural and behavioural influences to simulate doctors’ prescribing practices. Data from the literature, patient records, healthcare professional interviews and survey responses were used to parameterise the model. The scenario simulation shows maximum improvements in guideline compliance are achieved when compliance among senior staff is increased, combined with fast laboratory turnaround of blood cultures, and microbiologist review. Improving guideline compliance of junior staff alone has limited impact. This first use of system dynamics modelling to study antibiotic prescribing decision-making demonstrates the applicability of the methodology for design and evaluation of future policies and interventions.Peer reviewe

    Investigating infection management and antimicrobial stewardship in surgery: a qualitative study from India and South Africa

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    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the drivers for infection management and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) across high-infection-risk surgical pathways. METHODS: A qualitative study-ethnographic observation of clinical practices, patient case studies, and face-to-face interviews with healthcare professionals (HCPs) and patients-was conducted across cardiovascular and thoracic and gastrointestinal surgical pathways in South Africa (SA) and India. Aided by Nvivo 11 software, data were coded and analysed until saturation was reached. The multiple modes of enquiry enabled cross-validation and triangulation of findings. RESULTS: Between July 2018 and August 2019, data were gathered from 190 hours of non-participant observations (138 India, 72 SA), interviews with HCPs (44 India, 61 SA), patients (six India, eight SA), and case studies (four India, two SA). Across the surgical pathway, multiple barriers impede effective infection management and AMS. The existing implicit roles of HCPs (including nurses and senior surgeons) are overlooked as interventions target junior doctors, bypassing the opportunity for integrating infection-related care across the surgical team. Critically, the ownership of decisions remains with the operating surgeons, and entrenched hierarchies restrict the inclusion of other HCPs in decision-making. The structural foundations to enable staff to change their behaviours and participate in infection-related surgical care are lacking. CONCLUSIONS: Identifying the implicit existing HCP roles in infection management is critical and will facilitate the development of effective and transparent processes across the surgical team for optimized care. Applying a framework approach that includes nurse leadership, empowering pharmacists and engaging surgical leads, is essential for integrated AMS and infection-related care

    Adoption and use of e-government services in the Abu Dhabi police force : a qualitative study

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    Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) are becoming increasingly prevalent in peoples’ daily lives due to the presence of e-government. This research-in-progress paper aims to identify and understand factors affecting the diffusion, adoption and use of e-services in a public sector organisation, in this case, Abu Dhabi Police Force (ADPF) in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). A qualitative approach involving 39 participants’ interviews was used in this study. The questions used in the interviews were based on a conceptual framework that applied certain constructs taken from Diffusion of Innovations Theory (DOI), Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) and e-Commerce’s Trustworthiness models. The research study results show that age, education, position within an organisation and the job that an individual is involved with inhibit or encourage the use and adoption of e-services. The contributions from this research are anticipated to be a better understanding of the diffusion, adoption and use of e-services in the UAE region. For industry the findings offer a diverse perspective as they provide some information on the impacts of e-services in public sector organisations of Abu Dhabi. Policymakers, particularly in the UAE and developing countries can learn of the impacts of e-government efforts in the public sector of Abu Dhabi.Final Published versio
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