Short-range solar radiation forecasts over Sweden

In this article the performance for short-range solar radiation forecasts by the global deterministic and ensemble models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is compared with an ensemble of the regional mesoscale model HARMONIE-AROME used by the national meteorological services in Sweden, Norway and Finland. Note however that only the control members and the ensemble means are included in the comparison. The models resolution differs considerably with 18 km for the ECMWF ensemble, 9 km for the ECMWF deterministic model, and 2.5 km for the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble.The models share the same radiation code. It turns out that they all underestimate systematically the Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) for clear-sky conditions. Except for this shortcoming, the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble model shows the best agreement with the distribution of observed Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and DNI values. During mid-day the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble mean performs best. The control member of the HARMONIE-AROME ensemble also scores better than the global deterministic ECMWF model. This is an interesting result since mesoscale models have so far not shown good results when compared to the ECMWF models.Three days with clear, mixed and cloudy skies are used to illustrate the possible added value of a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that in these cases the mesoscale ensemble could provide decision support to a grid operator in terms of forecasts of both the amount of solar power and its probabilities

Towards an operational irrigation management system for Sweden with a water-food-energy nexus perspective

The 2018 drought in Sweden prompted questions about climate-adaptation and -mitigation measures - especially in the agricultural sector, which suffered the most. This study applies a water-food-energy nexus modelling framework to evaluate drought impacts on irrigation and agriculture in Sweden using 2018 and 2019 as case studies. A previous water-food-energy nexus model was updated to facilitate an investigation of the benefits of data-driven irrigation scheduling as compared to existing irrigation guidelines. Moreover, the benefits of assimilating earth observation data in the crop model have been explored. The assimilation of leaf area index data from the Copernicus Global Land Service improves the crop yield estimation as compared to default crop model parameters. The results show that the irrigation water productivities of the proposed model are measurably improved compared to conventional and static irrigation guidelines for both 2018 and 2019. This is mostly due to the advantage of the proposed model in providing evapotranspiration in cultural condition (ETc)-driven guidelines by using spatially explicit data generated by mesoscale models from the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute. During the drought year 2018, the developed model showed no irrigation water savings as compared to irrigation scenarios based on conventional irrigation guidelines. Nevertheless, the crop yield increase from the proposed irrigation management system varied between 10% and 60% as compared to conventional irrigation scenarios. During a normal year, the proposed irrigation management system leads to significant water savings as compared to conventional irrigation guidelines. The modelling results show that temperature stress during the 2018 drought also played a key role in reducing crop yields, with yield reductions of up to 30%. From a water-food-energy nexus, this motivates the implementation of new technologies to reduce water and temperature stress to mitigate likely negative effects of climate change and extremes. By using an open-source package for Google Earth (R), a demonstrator of cost-effective visualization platform is developed for helping farmers, and water- and energy-management agencies to better understand the connections between water and energy use, and food production. This can be significant, especially during the occurrence of extreme events, but also to adapt to the negative effects on agricultural production of climate changes

Optimized DNI forecast using combinations of nowcasting methods from the DNICast project

Within European Commission’s FP7 DNICast project a nowcasting scheme based on Meteosat Second Generation cloud imagery and cloud movement tracking was further developed. It uses a sectoral approach and answers the question at which time any cloud structure will affect the power plant. It distinguishes between thin cirrus clouds and other clouds, which typically occur in different heights in the atmosphere and move in different directions. Also, their optical properties are very different - especially for the calculation of direct normal irradiance (DNI) as required by concentrating solar power plants. The method is also applied in ESA’s CSP-FoSyS project developing a nowcasting and forecasting system. This paper shortly discusses the method and provides a comparison against an optical flow method. This comparison distinguishes between various cloud types. The study also provides an example how jumpiness and percentiles are part of the nowcasting ‘message’ and how they can be used quantitiatively in a first approach

A Nuclear Jet at Chernobyl Around 21:23:45 UTC on April 25, 1986

The nature of two explosions that were witnessed within 3 s at the Chernobyl-4 reactor less than a minute after 21:23:00 UTC on April 25, 1986, have since then been the subject of sprawling interpretations. This paper renders the following hypothesis. The first explosion consisted of thermal neutron mediated nuclear explosions in one or rather a few fuel channels, which caused a jet of debris that reached an altitude of some 2500 to 3000 m. The second explosion would then have been the steam explosion most experts believe was the first one. The solid support for this new scenario rests on two pillars and three pieces of corroborating evidence. The first pillar is that a group at the V. G. Khlopin Radium Institute in then Leningrad on April 29, 1986, detected newly produced, or fresh, xenon fission products at Cherepovets, 370 km north of Moscow and far away from the major track of Chernobyl debris ejected by the steam explosion and subsequent fires. The second pillar is built on state-of-the-art meteorological dispersion calculations, which show that the fresh xenon signature observed at Cherepovets was only possible if the injection altitude of the fresh debris was considerably higher than that of the bulk reactor core releases that turned toward Scandinavia and central Europe. These two strong pieces of evidence are corroborated by what were manifest physical effects of a downward jet in the southeastern part of the reactor, by seismic measurements some 100 km west of the reactor, and by observations of a blue flash above the reactor a few seconds after the first explosion