Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up

This paper addresses (I) the transition dynamics incompatibility between the BPCM and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis (PSH) (II) the causes of cyclical volatility in developing countries. In order to discuss these issues, we expand the Dutt (2002) model adding: (a) a productivity gap dynamics in which the south has a catching-up element; (b) a labor market dynamics, by including a wage curve in the relationship between employment rate and economic activity; and (c) a labor supply dynamics that considers the labor transfer issue between traditional and modern sectors. The result is a four dimensional dynamic model that represents a lagged developing economy constrained by its balance of payments. We find that our model converges and generates damped cycles. Fragile economies show an oscillatory decline in terms of trade, reinforcing an uneven development pattern between north and south. Industrialization and higher learning capabilities, however, can change the adjustment to a catching-up scenario