Predicting the impacts of climate change on a globally distributed species: the case of the loggerhead turtle

© Company of Biologists. Post print version deposited in accordance with SHERPA RoMEO guidelines. The definitive version is available at: http://jeb.biologists.org/content/213/6/901.shortMarine turtles utilise terrestrial and marine habitats and several aspects of their life history are tied to environmental features that are altering due to rapid climate change. We overview the likely impacts of climate change on the biology of these species, which are likely centred upon the thermal ecology of this taxonomic group. Then, focusing in detail on three decades of research on the loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta L.), we describe how much progress has been made to date and how future experimental and ecological focus should be directed. Key questions include: what are the current hatchling sex ratios from which to measure future climate-induced changes? What are wild adult sex ratios and how many males are necessary to maintain a fertile and productive population? How will climate change affect turtles in terms of their distribution

Highly feminised sex ratio estimations for the world’s third largest nesting aggregation of the loggerhead sea turtle

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Inter Research via the DOI in this record.Despite being a fundamental life history character, there is a paucity of population-wide, data-driven studies of primary sex ratios for any marine turtle species. The Republic of Cape Verde hosts the third largest nesting population of loggerhead turtles in the world (hosting up to 15% of global nesting by the species). Weighting for the spatial distribution of nests, we estimate that 84% female hatchlings are currently likely produced across the population, with 85% of nests laid on Boa Vista, where incubation temperatures were coolest. In future climate change scenarios (by 2100), irrespective of beach, island or sand colour, sex ratios reach over 99% female, and three islands (Fogo, Sao Nicolau, Santiago) would cease to produce males, with >90% of nests incubating at lethally high temperatures. Given that most of the population cannot move to nest on cooler islands, we highlight that temporal refugia are amongst primary means available to this population to adapt. Under Low Emissions Scenario, without phenological adaptation, there would only be an estimated 0.14% males produced across the whole population but in Mid and High Emissions Scenarios, male production may cease on most islands

Pinnipeds, people and photo identification: the implications of grey seal movements for effective management of the species

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Cambridge University Press via the DOI in this record.Grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) of the North-east Atlantic are protected at designated European Marine Sites (Special Areas of Conservation, SACs) typically during their reproductive periods and in the UK at Sites of Special Scientific Interest (SSSI). As a mobile marine species, grey seals spend other parts of their annual life cycle in non-designated habitat. There is limited information on individual grey seal movements in south-west England. Citizen science photo identification (PID) revealed the movements of 477 grey seals at a regional scale (54 haul-outs up to 230 km apart) for over a decade. Reconstructed movements showed considerable individual variability. Four SACs were linked to up to 18 non-designated sites and two SSSIs in Cornwall were linked to a maximum of 41 non-designated sites. Observations support the value of existing SSSIs at both the well-connected West and North Cornwall sites. Thirteen Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) were visited by grey seals from four SACs and two SSSIs in Cornwall. As a mobile species, grey seals could be included in English MPA management plans. The application of functional linkage from SACs and SSSIs, informed by the movements evidenced in this research, could aid management efforts. This analysis reveals grey seal movements occur across a complex network of interconnected designated and non-designated sites that need to be managed holistically for this species for which the UK has a special responsibility

Reduced metabolism supports hypoxic flight in the high-flying bar-headed goose (Anser indicus)

This is the final version. Available on open access from eLife Sciences Publications via the DOI in this recordThe bar-headed goose is famed for migratory flight at extreme altitude. To better understand the physiology underlying this remarkable behavior, we imprinted and trained geese, collecting the first cardiorespiratory measurements of bar-headed geese flying at simulated altitude in a wind tunnel. Metabolic rate during flight increased 16-fold from rest, supported by an increase in the estimated amount of O2 transported per heartbeat and a modest increase in heart rate. The geese appear to have ample cardiac reserves, as heart rate during hypoxic flights was not higher than in normoxic flights. We conclude that flight in hypoxia is largely achieved via the reduction in metabolic rate compared to normoxia. Arterial Po2 was maintained throughout flights. Mixed venous PO2 decreased during the initial portion of flights in hypoxia, indicative of increased tissue O2 extraction. We also discovered that mixed venous temperature decreased during flight, which may significantly increase oxygen loading to hemoglobin.National Science FoundationNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC

Contextualising the Last Survivors: Population Structure of Marine Turtles in the Dominican Republic.

Nesting by three species of marine turtles persists in the Dominican Republic, despite historic threats and long-term population decline. We conducted a genetic survey of marine turtles in the Dominican Republic in order to link them with other rookeries around the Caribbean. We sequenced a 740bp fragment of the control region of the mitochondrial DNA of 92 samples from three marine turtle species [hawksbill (n = 48), green (n = 2) and leatherback (n = 42)], and incorporated published data from other nesting populations and foraging grounds. The leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) in the Dominican Republic appeared to be isolated from Awala-Yalimapo, Cayenne, Trinidad and St. Croix but connected with other Caribbean populations. Two distinct nesting populations of hawksbill turtles (Eremochelys imbricata) were detected in the Dominican Republic and exhibited interesting patterns of connectivity with other nesting sites and juvenile and adult male foraging aggregations. The green sea turtle (Chelonia mydas) has almost been extirpated from the Dominican Republic and limited inference could be made from our samples. Finally, results were compared with Lagrangian drifting buoys and published Lagrangian virtual particles that travelled through the Dominican Republic and Caribbean waters. Conservation implications of sink-source effects or genetic isolation derived from these complex inter-connections are discussed for each species and population.The present study is included as part of a conservation project funded by: the Spanish International Cooperation Agency (AECI, projects: A/2991/05 and A/5641/06), the Spanish Ministry of Education and Sciences (CGL2006-02936-BOS), the General Foundation of the University of Valencia, and the European Union (Marie Curie grants, FP6 & 7). BJG is supported by NERC and the Darwin Initiative. LAH is supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council of the UK. JAR and JT are also supported by project Prometeo/2011/40 of ‘Conselleria de Educacio´’ (Generalitat Valenciana) and project CGL2011-30413 of the Spanish Ministry of Sciences and Innovation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

A global analysis of anthropogenic development of marine turtle nesting beaches

This is the final version. Available on open access from MDPI via the DOI in this recordThe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that sea levels will rise by up to 0.82 m in the next 100 years. In natural systems, coastlines would migrate landwards, but because most of the world's human population occupies the coast, anthropogenic structures (such as sea walls or buildings) have been constructed to defend the shore and prevent loss of property. This can result in a net reduction in beach area, a phenomenon known as "coastal squeeze", which will reduce beach availability for species such as marine turtles. As of yet, no global assessment of potential future coastal squeeze risk at marine turtle nesting beaches has been conducted. We used Google Earth satellite imagery to enumerate the proportion of beaches over the global nesting range of marine turtles that are backed by hard anthropogenic coastal development (HACD). Mediterranean and North American nesting beaches had the most HACD, while the Australian and African beaches had the least. Loggerhead and Kemp's ridley turtle nesting beaches had the most HACD, and flatback and green turtles the least. Future management approaches should prioritise the conservation of beaches with low HACD to mitigate future coastal squeeze

High rates of growth recorded for hawksbill sea turtles in Anegada, British Virgin Islands.

Management of species of conservation concern requires knowledge of demographic parameters, such as rates of recruitment, survival, and growth. In the Caribbean, hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) have been historically exploited in huge numbers to satisfy trade in their shells and meat. In the present study, we estimated growth rate of juvenile hawksbill turtles around Anegada, British Virgin Islands, using capture-mark-recapture of 59 turtles over periods of up to 649 days. Turtles were recaptured up to six times, having moved up to 5.9 km from the release location. Across all sizes, turtles grew at an average rate of 9.3 cm year(-1) (range 2.3-20.3 cm year(-1)), and gained mass at an average of 3.9 kg year(-1) (range 850 g-16.1 kg year(-1)). Carapace length was a significant predictor of growth rate and mass gain, but there was no relationship between either variable and sea surface temperature. These are among the fastest rates of growth reported for this species, with seven turtles growing at a rate that would increase their body size by more than half per year (51-69% increase in body length). This study also demonstrates the importance of shallow water reef systems for the developmental habitat for juvenile hawksbill turtles. Although growth rates for posthatching turtles in the pelagic, and turtles larger than 61 cm, are not known for this population, the implications of this study are that Caribbean hawksbill turtles in some areas may reach body sizes suggesting sexual maturity in less time than previously considered.This work was part funded by the UK Darwin Initiative (Project Ref. No. 162/12/023), NERC and the Japan Bekko Association. LAH is supported by Streamlining of Ocean Wavefarms Impact Assessment (SOWFIA) project and MJW was in receipt of a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) PhD studentship (NER/S/A/ 2004/12980) during the fieldwork. We thank the BVI National Parks Trust for their support and assistance. All work was sanctioned by the Conservation and Fisheries Department of the British Virgin Islands Government

Low‐cost tools mitigate climate change during reproduction in an endangered marine ectotherm

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordData Availability Statement: Data available via the Dryad Digital Repository https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.3r2280gfq. (Clarke et al., 2021)The impacts of anthropogenic climate change will be most dramatic for species that live in narrow thermal niches, such as reptiles. Given the imminent threat to biodiversity, and that actions to reduce carbon emissions are not yet sufficient, it is important that a sound evidence base of potential mitigation options is available for conservation managers. Successful incubation and production of male sea turtle hatchlings is threatened by increased global temperatures (sex is determined by the temperature at which eggs incubate). Here we test two conservation tools to reduce incubation temperatures: clutch splitting and clutch shading, on a nesting loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) population in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. During the thermosensitive period of incubation, split and shaded clutches were both 1.00 ˚C cooler than control nests. Clutch splitting (mean: 45 eggs) reduced nest temperatures by reducing metabolic heating during incubation compared to controls (mean: 92 eggs). Modelled primary sex ratios differed between nest treatments, with 1.50 % (± 6 % S.E.) females produced in shaded nests, 45.00 % (± 7 % S.E.) females in split nests and 69.00 % (± 6% S.E.) females in controls. Neither treatment affected hatchling size, success, mass or vigour. When clutch splitting was repeated two years later, hatch success was higher in split clutches compared to controls. Synthesis and Applications: Clutch splitting and clutch shading successfully altered the thermal profile of incubating turtle nests. When there is sufficient knowledge to better understand the effects of intervention on fundamental population demographics, they will be useful for reducing incubation temperatures in sea turtle nests, potentially increasing nest survival and male hatchling production. The effect of clutch splitting in reducing nest temperature was lower relative to clutch shading, but requires significantly less funding, materials and specialist skill, key factors for management of turtle rookeries that are often in remote, resource‐limited areas.Worldwide Fund for NatureWAVE Foundation of Newport Aquariu

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordFew studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature-dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up-to-date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.Portuguese Foundation for Science and TechnologyMAVA FoundationRufford Foundatio

Thermodynamic and thermal comfort optimisation of a coastal social house considering the influence of the thermal breeze

Tropical coastal areas are characterised by high levels of wind and solar resources with large potentials to be utilised for low-energy building design. This paper presents a multi-objective optimisation framework capable of evaluating cost-efficient and low-exergy coastal building designs considering the influence of the thermal breeze. An integrated dynamic simulation tool has been enhanced to consider the impacts of the sea-land breeze effect, aiming at potentiating natural cross-ventilation to improve occupant's thermal comfort and reduce cooling energy demand. Furthermore, the technological database considers a wide range of active and passive energy conservation measures. As a case study, a two-storey/two-flat detached social house located in the North-Pacific coast of Mexico has been investigated. The optimisation problem has considered the minimisation of: i. annual exergy consumption, ii. life cycle cost, and iii. thermal discomfort. Optimisation results have shown that adequate building orientation and window opening control to optimise the effects of the thermal breeze, combined with other passive and active strategies such as solar shading devices, an improved envelope's physical characteristics, and solar assisted air source heat pumps have provided the best performance under a limited budget. Compared to the baseline design, the closest to utopia design has increased thermal comfort by 93.8% and reduced exergy consumption by 10.3% whilst increasing the life cycle cost over the next 50 years by 18.5% (from US$39,864 to US$47,246). The importance of renewable generation incentives is further discussed as a counter effect measure for capital cost increase as well as unlocking currently high-cost low-exergy technologies