Delay-dependent exponential stability of neutral stochastic delay systems (vol 54, pg 147, 2009)

In the above titled paper originally published in vol. 54, no. 1, pp. 147-152) of IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, there were some typographical errors in inequalities. Corrections are presented here

Examining the Ability of Core Inflation to Capture the Overall Trend of Total Inflation

This paper examines whether core inflation is able to predict the overall trend of total inflation using real-time data in a parametric and nonparametric framework. Specifically, two sample periods and five in-sample forecast horizons in two measures of inflation, which are the personal consumption expenditure and the consumer price index, are used in the exclusions-from core inflation persistence model. This paper finds that core inflation is only able to capture the overall trend of total inflation for the twelve-quarter in-sample forecast horizon using the consumer price index in both the parametric and nonparametric models in the longer sample period. The nonparametric model outperforms the parametric model for both data samples and for all five in-sample forecast horizons.Inflation Persistence, Real-Time Data, Monetary Policy, Nonparametrics, In-Sample Forecasting

A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data

Using parametric and nonparametric methods, inflation persistence is examined through the relationship between exclusions-from-core inflation and total inflation for two sample periods and in five in-sample forecast horizons ranging from one quarter to three years over fifty vintages of real-time data in two measures of inflation: personal consumption expenditure and the consumer price index. Unbiasedness is examined at the aggregate and local levels. A local nonparametric hypothesis test for unbiasedness is developed and proposed for testing the local conditional nonparametric regression estimates, which can be vastly different from the aggregated nonparametric model. This paper finds that the nonparametric model outperforms the parametric model for both data samples and for all five in-sample forecast horizons.Real-Time Data, Local Estimation, Nonparametrics, Inflation Persistence, Monetary Policy

Forecasting and tracking real-time data revisions in inflation persistence

This paper presents three local nonparametric forecasting methods that are able to utilize the isolated periods of revised real-time PCE and core PCE for 62 vintages within a historic framework with respect to the nonparametric exclusion-from-core inflation persistence model. The flexibility, provided by the kernel and window width, permits the incorporation of the forecasted value into the appropriate time frame. For instance, a low inflation measure can be included in other low inflation time periods in order to form more optimal forecasts by combining values that are similar in terms of metric distance as opposed to chronological time. The most efficient nonparametric forecasting method is the third model, which uses the flexibility of nonparametrics to its utmost by making forecasts conditional on the forecasted value.Inflation Persistence, Real-Time Data, Monetary Policy, Nonparametrics, Forecasting

Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation

This paper tracks data revisions in the Personal Consumption Expenditure using the exclusions-from-core inflation persistence model. Keeping the number of observations the same, the regression parameters of earlier vintages of real-time data, beginning with vintage 1996:Q1, are tested for coincidence against the regression parameters of the last vintage of real-time data, used in this paper, which is vintage 2008:Q2 in a parametric and two nonparametric frameworks. The effects of data revisions are not detectable in the vast majority of cases in the parametric model, but the flexibility of the two nonparametric models is able to utilize the data revisions.Inflation Persistence, Real-Time Data, Monetary Policy, Nonparametrics, In-Sample Forecasting

Evaluating Exclusion-from-Core Measures of Inflation using Real-Time Data

Using parametric and nonparametric methods, inflation persistence is examined through the relationship between the exclusions-from-core measure of inflation and total inflation for two sample periods and five in-sample forecast horizons ranging from one to twelve quarters over fifty vintages of real-time data in two measures of inflation: personal consumption expenditure and the consumer price index. This paper finds that core inflation is only able to capture the overall trend of total inflation for the twelve-quarter in-sample forecast horizon using the consumer price index in both the parametric and nonparametric models in the longer sample period. The nonparametric model outperforms the parametric model for both data samples and for all five in-sample forecast horizons.Inflation Persistence, Real-Time Data, Monetary Policy, Nonparametrics, In-Sample Forecasting

A Local Examination for Persistence in Exclusions-from-Core Measures of Inflation Using Real-Time Data

Using parametric and nonparametric methods, inflation persistence is examined through the relationship between exclusions-from-core inflation and total inflation for two sample periods and in five in-sample forecast horizons ranging from one quarter to three years over fifty vintages of real-time data in two measures of inflation: personal consumption expenditure and the consumer price index. Unbiasedness is examined at the aggregate and local levels. A local nonparametric hypothesis test for unbiasedness is developed and proposed for testing the local conditional nonparametric regression estimates, which can be vastly different from the aggregated nonparametric model. This paper finds that the nonparametric model outperforms the parametric model for both data samples and for all five in-sample forecast horizons.Real-Time Data, Local Estimation, Nonparametrics, Inflation Persistence, Monetary Policy

Local Birds in and around the Offhore wind Farm Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ)

This report presents the final results of a four-year study of seabird distribution patterns in and around the first offshore wind farm in Dutch North Sea waters. This wind farm, known as OWEZ (Offshore Wind farm Egmond aan Zee) is situated 10 - 18 km off the Dutch mainland coast, northwest of the port of IJmuide

Relative abundance of pelagic sharks in the western North Atlantic Ocean, including the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

Little information exists on the status of pelagic shark populations in the Atlantic Ocean, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. We derived indices of relative abundance for pelagic sharks based on mandatory logbooks and observer reports from a scientific observer program of the United States (US) pelagic longline fleet. Time series data from the pelagic longline logbook program (1986-2005) and the pelagic longline observer program (1992-2005) were standardized with Generalized Linear Model (GLM) procedures. Declines in relative abundance for the 6 pelagic shark species or genera examined in the logbook data analysis ranged from 43% for mako sharks, Isurus spp., to 88% for blue sharks, Prionace glauca, whereas declines in relative abundance obtained from the observer data analysis were less accentuated than those in the logbook data analysis, with the trend being positive for night sharks, Carcharhinus signatus, and thresher sharks, Alopias spp. There was no significant change in the fork length at capture over the time period considered for blue sharks, shortfin makos Isurus oxyrinchus, or night sharks. The trends obtained must be viewed cautiously given recognized shortcomings, especially of the logbook dataset, and the highly migratory nature of pelagic sharks, which requires a more comprehensive evaluation of trends throughout their range

Directional spectra comparisons between HF radar and a wave model

Directional spectra measurements using HF radar are compared with model data to confirm limitations of the currently available theory that underpins these measurements. In high seas, waveheight is overestimated but it is demonstrated that there is no clear impact on the shape of the spectrum which is in reasonable agreement with the model. The need for increased averaging before inversion is discussed