‘Savage times come again’ : Morel, Wells, and the African Soldier, c.1885-1920

The African soldier trained in western combat was a figure of fear and revulsion in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. My article examines representations of African soldiers in nonfictional writings by E.D. Morel about the Congo Free State (1885-1908), the same author’s reportage on African troops in post-First World War Germany, and H.G. Wells’s speculative fiction When the Sleeper Wakes (1899, 1910). In each text racist and anti-colonialist discourses converge in representing the African soldier as the henchman of corrupt imperialism. His alleged propensity for taboo crimes of cannibalism and rape are conceived as threats to white safety and indeed supremacy. By tracing Wells’s connections to the Congo reform campaign and situating his novel between two phases of Morel’s writing career, I interpret When the Sleeper Wakes as neither simply a reflection of past events in Africa or as a prediction of future ones in Europe. It is rather a transcultural text which reveals the impact of European culture upon the ‘Congo atrocities’, and the inscription of this controversy upon European popular cultural forms and social debates

Altitude e coordenadas geográficas na estimativa da temperatura mínima média decendial do ar no estado do Rio Grande do Sul Altitude and geographic coordinates in the ten-day mean minimum air temperature estimation in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

O objetivo deste trabalho foi verificar, com dados de temperatura mínima média decendial do ar (Tm) de 41 municípios do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, de 1945 a 1974, se a Tm pode ser estimada em função da altitude, latitude e longitude. Para cada um dos 36 decêndios do ano, realizaram-se análise de correlação, análise de trilha das variáveis causais - altitude, latitude e longitude - sobre o efeito Tm, e estimaram-se os parâmetros do modelo das equações de regressão linear múltipla, pelo método passo a passo, com teste para saída de variáveis, considerando Tm como variável dependente e altitude, latitude e longitude como variáveis independentes. Na validação dos modelos de estimativa da Tm, usou-se o coeficiente de correlação linear de Pearson, entre a Tm estimada e a Tm observada em dez municípios do Estado, com dados da série de observações meteorológicas de 1975 a 2004. A temperatura mínima média decendial do ar pode ser estimada pelas coordenadas geográficas em qualquer local e decêndio, no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. A altitude e latitude explicam melhor a variação da Tm.<br>The objective of this work was to estimate ten-day mean minimum air temperature (Tm) using altitude and the geographic coordinates latitude and longitude for the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil. Normal ten-day mean minimum air temperature of 41 counties in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, from 1945 to 1974 were used. Correlation analysis, path analysis of causal variables (altitude, latitude and longitude) on Tm, and parameters estimate of multiple linear regression equations were performed by the stepwise backward method, using Tm as dependent variable and altitude, latitude and longitude as independent variables, for the 36 ten-day periods of the year. Pearson's linear correlation coefficient between estimated and observed Tm, calculated for tem counties using data of the series of meteorological observations from 1975 to 2004 were used as independent data sets. The ten-day mean minimum air temperature may be estimated from the geographic coordinates in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Altitude and latitude best explain the variation of the Tm

Are models too simple? Arguments for increased parameterization

The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities are now available and should become more widely used. To make this case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers; knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments. We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized inversion approach

The Scottish Motor Neuron Disease Register: a prospective study of adult onset motor neuron disease in Scotland. Methodology, demography and clinical features of incident cases in 1989

The Scottish Motor Neuron Disease Register (SMNDR) is a prospective, collaborative, population based study of motor neuron disease (MND) in Scotland. The register started in January 1989 with the aim of studying the clinical and epidemiological features of MND by prospectively identifying incident patients. It is based on a system of registration by recruitment from multiple sources, followed by the collection of complete clinical data and follow up, mainly through general practitioners. In this report the register's methodology and the demography and incidence data for the first year of study are presented. One hundred and fourteen newly diagnosed patients were identified in 1989 giving a crude incidence for Scotland of 2.24/100,000/year. Standardised incidence ratios showed a non-significant trend towards lower rates in north eastern regions and island areas