Poverty impacts of a WTO agreement : synthesis and overview

This paper reports on the findings from a major international research project investigating the poverty impacts of a potential Doha Development Agenda (DDA). It combines in a novel way the results from several strands of research. Intensive analysis of the DDA Framework Agreement pays particularly close attention to potential reforms in agriculture. The scenarios are built up using newly available tariff line data and their implications for world markets are established using a global modeling framework. These world trade impacts, in turn, form the basis for 12 country case studies of the national poverty impacts of these DDA scenarios. The focus countries include Bangladesh, Brazil (two studies), Cameroon, China (two studies), Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, the Philippines, Russia, and Zambia. The diversity of approaches taken in these studies allows the paper to reflect local conditions and priorities and illustrates many important facets of the trade and poverty link. It does, however, limit the ability to draw broader conclusions. Thus an additional study provides a 15-country cross-section analysis, and a global analysis provides estimates for the world as a whole.Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Assessment,Free Trade,Economic Theory&Research,Achieving Shared Growth

Distributional effects of WTO agricultural reforms in rich and poor countries

Rich countries'agricultural trade policies are the battleground on which the future of the WTO's troubled Doha Round will be determined. Subject to widespread criticism, they nonetheless appear to be almost immune to serious reform, and one of their most common defenses is that they protect poor farmers. The authors'findings reject this claim. The analysis uses detailed data on farm incomes to show that major commodity programs are highly regressive in the United States, and that theonly serious losses under trade reform are among large, wealthy farmers in a few heavily protected subsectors. In contrast, analysis using household data from 15 developing countries indicates that reforming rich countries'agricultural trade policies would lift large numbers of developing country farm households out of poverty. In the majority of cases these gains are not outweighed by the poverty-increasing effects of higher food prices among other households. Agricultural reforms that appear feasible, even under an ambitious Doha Round, achieve only a fraction of the benefits for developing countries that full liberalization promises, but protect U.S. large farms from most of the rigors of adjustment. Finally, the analysis indicates that maximal trade-led poverty reductions occur when developing countries participate more fully in agricultural trade liberalization.Rural Poverty Reduction,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Achieving Shared Growth

Poverty analysis using an international cross-country demand system

This paper proposes a new method for ex ante analysis of the poverty impacts arising from policy reforms. Three innovations underlie this approach. The first is the estimation of a global demand system using a combination of micro-data from household surveys and macro-data from the International Comparisons Project (ICP). Estimation is undertaken in a manner that reconciles these two sources of information, explicitly recognizing that per capita national demands are an aggregation of the disaggregated, individual household demands. The second innovation relates to a methodology for post-estimation calibration of the global demand system, giving rise to country-specific demand systems and an associated expenditure function which, when aggregated across the expenditure distribution, reproduce observed per capita budget shares exactly. This leads to the third innovation, which is the establishment of a unique poverty level of utility and an appropriately modified set of Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measures. With these tools in hand, the authors are able to calculate the change in the head-count of poverty, poverty gap, and squared poverty gap arising from policy reforms, where the poverty measures are derived using a unique poverty level of utility, rather than an income or expenditure-based measure. They use these techniques with a demand system for food, other nondurables and services estimated using a combination of 1996 ICP data set and national expenditure distribution data. Calibration is demonstrated for three countries for which household survey expenditure data are used during estimation-Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. To show the usefulness of these calibrated models for policy analysis, the authors assess the effects of an assumed 5 percent food price rise as might be realized in the wake of a multilateral trade agreement. Results illustrate the important role of subsistence expenditures at lowest income levels, but of discretionary expenditure at higher income levels. The welfare analysis underscores the relatively large impact of the price hike on poorer households, while a modified Foster-Greer-Thorbecke poverty measure shows that the 5 percent price rise increases the incidence and intensity of poverty in all three cases, although the specific effects vary considerably by country.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Population Policies,Rural Poverty Reduction,Poverty Lines

Modeling Uncertainty in Large Natural Resource Allocation Problems

The productivity of the world's natural resources is critically dependent on a variety of highly uncertain factors, which obscure individual investors and governments that seek to make long-term, sometimes irreversible investments in their exploration and utilization. These dynamic considerations are poorly represented in disaggregated resource models, as incorporating uncertainty into large-dimensional problems presents a challenging computational task. This study introduces a novel numerical method to solve large-scale dynamic stochastic natural resource allocation problems that cannot be addressed by conventional methods. The method is illustrated with an application focusing on the allocation of global land resource use under stochastic crop yields due to adverse climate impacts and limits on further technological progress. For the same model parameters, the range of land conversion is considerably smaller for the dynamic stochastic model as compared to deterministic scenario analysis. The scenario analysis can thus significantly overstate the magnitude of expected land conversion under uncertain crop yields

Three-dimensional magnetic flux-closure patterns in mesoscopic Fe islands

We have investigated three-dimensional magnetization structures in numerous mesoscopic Fe/Mo(110) islands by means of x-ray magnetic circular dichroism combined with photoemission electron microscopy (XMCD-PEEM). The particles are epitaxial islands with an elongated hexagonal shape with length of up to 2.5 micrometer and thickness of up to 250 nm. The XMCD-PEEM studies reveal asymmetric magnetization distributions at the surface of these particles. Micromagnetic simulations are in excellent agreement with the observed magnetic structures and provide information on the internal structure of the magnetization which is not accessible in the experiment. It is shown that the magnetization is influenced mostly by the particle size and thickness rather than by the details of its shape. Hence, these hexagonal samples can be regarded as model systems for the study of the magnetization in thick, mesoscopic ferromagnets.Comment: 12 pages, 11 figure

The Accuracy of Beliefs About Retrieval Cues

We investigated the accuracy of predictions about semantic, environmental, and phonological cues for remembering. Subjects rated the pleasantness of 10 words in each of four rooms, predicted the number of words that they would recall with and without one of the three types of cues, and then were tested for free or cued recall. Consistent with their predictions, subjects who received semantic cues recalled more words than did subjects in the free-recall group. The subjects in the other cuing conditions did not benefit from the cues; furthermore, they overestimated the value of phonological cues, and they believed that environmental cues were ineffective. Finally, confidence ratings for cued-recall predictions did not reflect the pattern of cued-recall performance. Subjects were least confident about their predictions for semantic cuing and most confident about their predictions for recall to be cued phonologically

General-Relativistic Thomas-Fermi model

A system of self-gravitating massive fermions is studied in the framework of the general-relativistic Thomas-Fermi model. We study the properties of the free energy functional and its relation to Einstein's field equations. A self-gravitating fermion gas we then describe by a set of Thomas-Fermi type self-consistency equations.Comment: 7 pages, LaTex, to appear in Gen. Rel. Gra

Conductance of Distorted Carbon Nanotubes

We have calculated the effects of structural distortions of armchair carbon nanotubes on their electrical transport properties. We found that the bending of the nanotubes decreases their transmission function in certain energy ranges and leads to an increased electrical resistance. Electronic structure calculations show that these energy ranges contain localized states with significant $\sigma$-$\pi$ hybridization resulting from the increased curvature produced by bending. Our calculations of the contact resistance show that the large contact resistances observed for SWNTs are likely due to the weak coupling of the NT to the metal in side bonded NT-metal configurations.Comment: 5 pages RevTeX including 4 figures, submitted to PR

Thomas-Fermi-Dirac-von Weizsacker hydrodynamics in laterally modulated electronic systems

We have studied the collective plasma excitations of a two-dimensional electron gas with an arbitrary lateral charge-density modulation. The dynamics is formulated using a previously developed hydrodynamic theory based on the Thomas-Fermi-Dirac-von Weizsacker approximation. In this approach, both the equilibrium and dynamical properties of the periodically modulated electron gas are treated in a consistent fashion. We pay particular attention to the evolution of the collective excitations as the system undergoes the transition from the ideal two-dimensional limit to the highly-localized one-dimensional limit. We also calculate the power absorption in the long-wavelength limit to illustrate the effect of the modulation on the modes probed by far-infrared (FIR) transmission spectroscopy.Comment: 27 page Revtex file, 15 Postscript figure

Electron-Phonon Scattering in Metallic Single-Walled Carbon Nanotubes

Electron scattering rates in metallic single-walled carbon nanotubes are studied using an atomic force microscope as an electrical probe. From the scaling of the resistance of the same nanotube with length in the low and high bias regimes, the mean free paths for both regimes are inferred. The observed scattering rates are consistent with calculations for acoustic phonon scattering at low biases and zone boundary/optical phonon scattering at high biases.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure