A total-evidence approach to dating with fossils, applied to the early radiation of the Hymenoptera

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Fractal Profit Landscape of the Stock Market

We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q. Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figure

Financial Transaction Tax: Small is Beautiful

The case for taxing financial transactions merely to raise more revenues from the financial sector is not particularly strong. Better alternatives to tax the financial sector are likely to be available. However, a tax on financial transactions could be justified in order to limit socially undesirable transactions when more direct means of doing so are unavailable for political or practical reasons. Some financial transactions are indeed likely to do more harm than good, especially when they contribute to the systemic risk of the financial system. However, such a financial transaction tax should be very small, much smaller than the negative externalities in question, because it is a blunt instrument that also drives out socially useful transactions. There is a case for taxing over-the-counter derivative transactions at a somewhat higher rate than exchange-based derivative transactions. More targeted remedies to drive out socially undesirable transactions should be sought in parallel, which would allow, after their implementation, to reduce or even phase out financialtransaction taxes

Österreichisches Projekt Grundlagen zur Züchtung, Vermehrung und Sorten-/Saatgutprüfung für den Biolandbau: Ergebnisübersicht

In the Austrian research project “Basic principles for breeding, multiplication and variety testing for organic agriculture” (from 2004 until 2008) novel methods for the assessment of the suitability of seed and cultivars for organic farming were developed and evaluated by an interdisciplinary co-operation of researchers, breeders and variety testers. Organic farming requires specific combinations of crop plant characters, especially seed health and resistance against seed-borne diseases. Another crucial feature is the competitive ability against weeds. Early development was found to significantly increase the competitiveness of different crop plants. Genotypic variation in characters necessary for an efficient utilisation of below-ground resources was also investigated, e.g. interrelations between root development and drought stress tolerance and between mycorrhiza formation and nutrient use efficiency. Based on the results obtained in various cultivar trials, it can be concluded that genotypes suitable for organic growing conditions may be pre-selected from early breeding material of conventional breeding programmes. The selected breeding material must subsequently be rigorously tested on organically managed fields starting from the first yield trials at the latest. The project results were communicated to farmers and advisors during field days and excursions. They will be applied in the breeding of new cultivars