A nonparametric approach for model individualization in an artificial pancreas

The identification of patient-tailored linear time invariant glucose-insulin models is investigated for type 1 diabetic patients, that are characterized by a substantial inter-subject variability. The individualized linear models are identified by considering a novel kernel-based nonparametric approach and are compared with a linear time invariant average model in terms of prediction performance by means of the coefficient of determination, fit, positive and negative max errors, and root mean squared error. Model identification and validation are based on in-silico data collected from the adult virtual population of the UVA/Padova simulator. The data generation involves a protocol designed to produce a sufficient input excitation without compromising patient safety, compatible also with real life scenarios. The identified models are exploited to synthesize an individualized Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for each patient, which is used in an Artificial Pancreas to maintain the blood glucose concentration within an euglycemic range. The MPC used in several clinical studies, synthesized on the basis of a non-individualized average linear time invariant model, is also considered as reference. The closed-loop control performance is evaluated in an in-silico study on the adult virtual population of the UVA/Padova simulator in a perturbed scenario, in which the MPC is blind to random variations of insulin sensitivity in each virtual patient. © 2015, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Dynamics of systems with isotropic competing interactions in an external field: a Langevin approach

We study the Langevin dynamics of a ferromagnetic Ginzburg-Landau Hamiltonian with a competing long-range repulsive term in the presence of an external magnetic field. The model is analytically solved within the self consistent Hartree approximation for two different initial conditions: disordered or zero field cooled (ZFC), and fully magnetized or field cooled (FC). To test the predictions of the approximation we develop a suitable numerical scheme to ensure the isotropic nature of the interactions. Both the analytical approach and the numerical simulations of two-dimensional finite systems confirm a simple aging scenario at zero temperature and zero field. At zero temperature a critical field $h_c$ is found below which the initial conditions are relevant for the long time dynamics of the system. For $h < h_c$ a logarithmic growth of modulated domains is found in the numerical simulations but this behavior is not captured by the analytical approach which predicts a $t^1/2$ growth law at $T = 0$

Antideuterons as a Signature of Supersymmetric Dark Matter

Once the energy spectrum of the secondary component is well understood, measurements of the antiproton cosmic-ray flux at the Earth will be a powerful way to indirectly probe for the existence of supersymmetric relics in the galactic halo. Unfortunately, it is still spoilt by considerable theoretical uncertainties. As shown in this work, searches for low-energy antideuterons appear in the mean time as a plausible alternative, worth being explored. Above a few GeV/n, a dozen spallation antideuterons should be collected by the future AMS experiment on board ISSA. For energies less than about 3 GeV/n, the antideuteron spallation component becomes negligible and may be supplanted by a potential supersymmetric signal. If a few low-energy antideuterons are discovered, this should be seriously taken as a clue for the existence of massive neutralinos in the Milky Way.Comment: 16 pages, 9 figure

Observability and nonlinear filtering

This paper develops a connection between the asymptotic stability of nonlinear filters and a notion of observability. We consider a general class of hidden Markov models in continuous time with compact signal state space, and call such a model observable if no two initial measures of the signal process give rise to the same law of the observation process. We demonstrate that observability implies stability of the filter, i.e., the filtered estimates become insensitive to the initial measure at large times. For the special case where the signal is a finite-state Markov process and the observations are of the white noise type, a complete (necessary and sufficient) characterization of filter stability is obtained in terms of a slightly weaker detectability condition. In addition to observability, the role of controllability in filter stability is explored. Finally, the results are partially extended to non-compact signal state spaces

Sneutrino cold dark matter, a new analysis: relic abundance and detection rates

We perform a new and updated analysis of sneutrinos as dark matter candidates, in different classes of supersymmetric models. We extend previous analyses by studying sneutrino phenomenology for full variations of the supersymmetric parameters which define the various models. We first revisit the standard Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, concluding that sneutrinos are marginally compatible with existing experimental bounds, including direct detection, provided they compose a subdominant component of dark matter. We then study supersymmetric models with the inclusion of right-handed fields and lepton-number violating terms. Simple versions of the lepton-number-violating models do not lead to phenomenology different from the standard case when the neutrino mass bounds are properly included. On the contrary, models with right-handed fields are perfectly viable: they predict sneutrinos which are compatible with the current direct detection sensitivities, both as subdominant and dominant dark matter components. We also study the indirect detection signals for such successful models: predictions for antiproton, antideuteron and gamma-ray fluxes are provided and compared with existing and future experimental sensitivities. The neutrino flux from the center of the Earth is also analyzed.Comment: 72 pages, 50 figures. The version on the archive has low-resolution figures. The paper with high resolution figures may be found through http://www.to.infn.it/~arina/papers or http://www.to.infn.it/~fornengo/Research/paperlist.htm

The risk stratification of adverse neonatal outcomes in women with gestational diabetes (STRONG) study

Aims: To assess the risk of adverse neonatal outcomes in women with gestational diabetes (GDM) by identifying subgroups of women at higher risk to recognize the characteristics most associated with an excess of risk. Methods: Observational, retrospective, multicenter study involving consecutive women with GDM. To identify distinct and homogeneous subgroups of women at a higher risk, the RECursive Partitioning and AMalgamation (RECPAM) method was used. Overall, 2736 pregnancies complicated by GDM were analyzed. The main outcome measure was the occurrence of adverse neonatal outcomes in pregnancies complicated by GDM. Results: Among study participants (median age 36.8 years, pre-gestational BMI 24.8 kg/m2), six miscarriages, one neonatal death, but no maternal death was recorded. The occurrence of the cumulative adverse outcome (OR 2.48, 95% CI 1.59–3.87), large for gestational age (OR 3.99, 95% CI 2.40–6.63), fetal malformation (OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.00–7.18), and respiratory distress (OR 4.33, 95% CI 1.33–14.12) was associated with previous macrosomia. Large for gestational age was also associated with obesity (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.00–2.15). Small for gestational age was associated with first trimester glucose levels (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.04–3.69). Neonatal hypoglycemia was associated with overweight (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.02–2.27) and obesity (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04–2.51). The RECPAM analysis identified high-risk subgroups mainly characterized by high pre-pregnancy BMI (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.21–2.33 for obese; OR 1.38 95% CI 1.03–1.87 for overweight). Conclusions: A deep investigation on the factors associated with adverse neonatal outcomes requires a risk stratification. In particular, great attention must be paid to the prevention and treatment of obesity