GA SAKe : forecasting landslide activations by a genetic-algorithms-based hydrological model

Abstract. GASAKe is a new hydrological model aimed at forecasting the triggering of landslides. The model is based on genetic algorithms and allows one to obtain thresholds for the prediction of slope failures using dates of landslide activations and rainfall series. It can be applied to either single landslides or a set of similar slope movements in a homogeneous environment. Calibration of the model provides families of optimal, discretized solutions (kernels) that maximize the fitness function. Starting from the kernels, the corresponding mobility functions (i.e., the predictive tools) can be obtained through convolution with the rain series. The base time of the kernel is related to the magnitude of the considered slope movement, as well as to the hydro-geological complexity of the site. Generally, shorter base times are expected for shallow slope instabilities compared to larger-scale phenomena. Once validated, the model can be applied to estimate the timing of future landslide activations in the same study area, by employing measured or forecasted rainfall series. Examples of application of GASAKe to a medium-size slope movement (the Uncino landslide at San Fili, in Calabria, southern Italy) and to a set of shallow landslides (in the Sorrento Peninsula, Campania, southern Italy) are discussed. In both cases, a successful calibration of the model has been achieved, despite unavoidable uncertainties concerning the dates of occurrence of the slope movements. In particular, for the Sorrento Peninsula case, a fitness of 0.81 has been obtained by calibrating the model against 10 dates of landslide activation; in the Uncino case, a fitness of 1 (i.e., neither missing nor false alarms) has been achieved using five activations. As for temporal validation, the experiments performed by considering further dates of activation have also proved satisfactory. In view of early-warning applications for civil protection, the capability of the model to simulate the occurrences of the Uncino landslide has been tested by means of a progressive, self-adaptive procedure. Finally, a sensitivity analysis has been performed by taking into account the main parameters of the model. The obtained results are quite promising, given the high performance of the model against different types of slope instabilities characterized by several historical activations. Nevertheless, further refinements are still needed for application to landslide risk mitigation within early-warning and decision-support systems

A Comparative Analysis of the Photo-Protective Effects of Soy Isoflavones in Their Aglycone and Glucoside Forms

Isoflavones exist in nature predominantly as glucosides such as daidzin or genistin and are rarely found in their corresponding aglycone forms daidzein and genistein. The metabolism and absorption of isoflavones ingested with food is well documented, but little is known about their use as topical photo-protective agents. The aim of this study was to investigate in a comparative analysis the photo-protective effects of isoflavones in both their aglycone and glucoside forms. In human skin fibroblasts irradiated with 60 mJ/cm(2) ultraviolet B (UVB), we measured the expression levels of COX-2 and Gadd45, which are involved in inflammation and DNA repair, respectively. We also determined the cellular response to UVB-induced DNA damage using the comet assay. Our findings suggest that both the isoflavone glucosides at a specific concentration and combination with an aglycone mixture exerted an anti-inflammatory and photo-protective effect that prevented 41% and 71% of UVB-induced DNA damage, respectively. The advantages of using either isoflavone glucosides or an aglycone mixture in applications in the field of dermatology will depend on their properties and their different potential uses

Rainfall thresholds for shallow landslide occurrence in Calabria, southern Italy

Abstract. In many areas, rainfall is the primary trigger of landslides. Determining the rainfall conditions responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to saving lives and properties. In a long-term national project for the definition of rainfall thresholds for possible landslide occurrence in Italy, we compiled a catalogue of 186 rainfall events that resulted in 251 shallow landslides in Calabria, southern Italy, from January 1996 to September 2011. Landslides were located geographically using Google Earth®, and were given a mapping and a temporal accuracy. We used the landslide information, and sub-hourly rainfall measurements obtained from two complementary networks of rain gauges, to determine cumulated event vs. rainfall duration (ED) thresholds for Calabria. For this purpose, we adopted an existing method used to prepare rainfall thresholds and to estimate their associated uncertainties in central Italy. The regional thresholds for Calabria were found to be nearly identical to previous ED thresholds for Calabria obtained using a reduced set of landslide information, and slightly higher than the ED thresholds obtained for central Italy. We segmented the regional catalogue of rainfall events with landslides in Calabria into lithology, soil regions, rainfall zones, and seasonal periods. The number of events in each subdivision was insufficient to determine reliable thresholds, but allowed for preliminary conclusions about the role of the environmental factors in the rainfall conditions responsible for shallow landslides in Calabria. We further segmented the regional catalogue based on administrative subdivisions used for hydro-meteorological monitoring and operational flood forecasting, and we determined separate ED thresholds for the Tyrrhenian and the Ionian coasts of Calabria. We expect the ED rainfall thresholds for Calabria to be used in regional and national landslide warning systems. The thresholds can also be used for landslide hazard and risk assessments, and for erosion and landscape evolution studies, in the study area and in similar physiographic regions in the Mediterranean area

Geochemical and Sr-Nd isotopic features of the Zaro volcanic complex: insights on the magmatic processes triggering a small-scale prehistoric eruption at Ischia island (south Italy)

The prehistoric (< 7 ka) Zaro eruption at Ischia island (Southern Italy) produced a lava complex overlaying a pyroclastic deposit. Although being of low energy, the Zaro eruption might have caused casualties among the neolithic population that inhabited that area of Ischia, and damages to their settlements. A similar eruption at Ischia with its present-day population would turn into a disaster. Therefore, understanding the magmatic processes that triggered the Zaro eruption would be important for volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation, so as to improve a knowledge that can be applied to other active volcanic areas worldwide. The main Zaro lava body is trachyte and hosts abundant mafic and felsic enclaves. Here all juvenile facies have been fully characterized from petrographic, geochemical and isotopic viewpoints. The whole dataset (major and trace element contents; Sr-Nd isotopic composition) leads to rule out a genetic link by fractional crystallization among the variable facies. Thus, we suggest that the Zaro mafic enclaves could represent a deep-origin mafic magma that mingled/mixed with the main trachytic one residing in the Ischia shallow magmatic system. The intrusion of such a mafic magma into a shallow reservoir filled by partly crystallized, evolved magma could have destabilized the magmatic system presumably acting as a rapid eruption trigger. The resulting processes of convection, mixing and rejuvenation have possibly played an important role in pre- and syn-eruptive phases also in several eruptions of different sizes in the Neapolitan area and elsewhere in the world

Tracking research trends and hotspots in sperm DNA fragmentation testing for the evaluation of male infertility: a scientometric analysis.

BACKGROUND: This article describes the research trends in sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) over the past 20 years (1999-2018) using a scientometric approach. METHODS: A stepwise approach was adopted to retrieve scientometric data (articles per year, authors, affiliations, journals, countries) from Scopus and analyze the publication pattern of SDF with reference to key areas of research in the field of Andrology. RESULTS: A total of 2121 articles were retrieved related to SDF. Our data revealed an increasing research trend in SDF (n = 33 to n = 173) over the past 20 years (R2 = 0.894). Most productive country in publications was the USA (n = 450), while Agarwal A. (n = 129) being the most productive author. Most of the articles in SDF were primarily focused on lifestyle (n = 157), asthenozoospermia (n = 135) and varicocele (130). Mechanistic studies on SDF were published twice as much as prognostic/diagnostic studies, with significant emphasis on oxidative stress. Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) was the most widely used technique to evaluate SDF. Publications on SDF related to assisted reproductive techniques also showed a linear increasing trend (R2 = 0.933). CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis revealed an increasing trend in SDF publications predominantly investigating lifestyle, asthenozoospermia and varicocele conditions with TUNEL being the most widely used technique. A substantial increase in research is warranted to establish SDF as prognostic/diagnostic parameter to evaluate clinical scenarios and ART outcomes

Adding hydroxyurea in combination with ruxolitinib improves clinical responses in hyperproliferative forms of myelofibrosis

Ruxolitinib, an orally bioavailable and selective inhibitor of Janus kinase 1 (JAK1) and JAK2, significantly reduces splenomegaly and disease-related symptoms in patients with myelofibrosis (MF). However, no clear survival benefit has been demonstrated, which may in part reflect suboptimal drug exposure related to lower dosages needed to minimize hematological toxicity, specifically cytopenias. Furthermore, the optimal management of specific conditions such as leukocytosis or thrombocytosis in patients under ruxolitinib therapy is still undefined. In these cases, combining ruxolitinib with a cytoreductive agent like hydroxyurea might improve hematological response. This observational multi-center study enrolled 20 adult patients with intermediate- or high-risk primary MF, post- polycythemia vera MF, or postessential thrombocythemia MF with hyperproliferative manifestations of the disease and WBC and/or platelet counts not controlled by ruxolitinib therapy. The patients received treatment with a combination of ruxolitinib and hydroxyurea. A clinical response of any type was obtained in 8 patients (40%) during ruxolitinib monotherapy and in 17 patients (85%) during ruxolitinib-hydroxyurea combination (P = 0.003). After a median duration of 12.4 months of combination therapy, 16/20 patients had a hematological response; 14/17 patients who had started combination therapy to control WBC count and 2/3 who started in order to reduce platelets count. The number of patients requiring ruxolitinib dosage reduction or discontinuations was lower during combination therapy and, at the end of follow-up the median ruxolitinib dose was increased in 50% of patients. In conclusion, the combination of hydroxyurea with ruxolitinib yielded a high clinical response rate and increased ruxolitinib exposure in patients with hyperproliferative forms of MF

Developing and piloting a communication assessment tool assessing patient perspectives on communication with pharmacists (CAT-Pharm)

Background: Effective communication strategies in health care help to enhance patient empowerment and improve clinical outcomes. Objective: Adapt the original Communication Assessment (CAT) instrument for the pharmacist profession (CAT-Pharm) and to test its validity and reliability in two different settings. Setting: Five hospital pharmacies in Italy and five community pharmacies in Malta. Method: Pilot study involving a standardized multi-step process adhering to internationally accepted and recommended guidelines. Corrections and adjustments to the translation addressed linguistic factors and cultural components. CAT-Pharm, compared to the original CAT, maintained 10 out of the 14 items: one was slightly modified; three were changed to better fit the pharmacist role; one was added. Main outcome measure: CAT-Pharm development and testing its practicality to Assess patient perceptions of pharmacists’ interpersonal and communication skills. Results CAT-Pharm was tested on 97 patients in the Italian setting and 150 patients in the Maltese setting to assess the practicality of the tool and its usefulness in investigating gaps and priorities for improving pharmacist-patient communication. Results: Show reliability and internal validity of the CAT-Pharm tool. The analysis of patient perceptions of communication with the pharmacist in Italy indicated differences from that in Malta. The different settings provided insight into the utility of CAT-Pharm. Conclusion: This study provided a valid and reliable tool that could be applied to assess patient perception of the pharmacist's communication abilities

Why the anti-meningococcal b vaccination during adolescence should be implemented in italy: An overview of available evidence

Although meningococcal disease has a low incidence in Italy, it is a public health concern owing to its high lethality rate and high frequency of transitory and/or permanent sequelae among survivors. The highest incidence rates are recorded in infants, children and adolescents, and most of the cases are due to Neisseria meningitidis B. In Italy, anti-meningococcal B (anti-MenB) vaccination is free for infants but, despite the considerable disease burden in adolescents, no national recommendation to vaccinate in this age-group is currently available. The aim of this study was to assess the main available scientific evidence to support the Italian health authorities in implementing a program of free anti-MenB vaccination for adolescents. We conducted an overview of the scientific literature on epidemiology, disease burden, immunogenicity and safety of available vaccines, and economic evaluations of vaccination strategies. Each case of invasive meningococcal disease generates a considerable health burden (lethality rate: 9%; up to 60% of patients experience at least one sequela) in terms of impaired quality of life for survivors and high direct and indirect costs (the mean overall cost of acute phase for a single case amounts to about EUR 13,952; the costs for post-acute and the long-term phases may vary widely depending of the type of sequela, reaching an annual cost of about EUR 100,000 in cases of severe neurological damage). Furthermore, vaccination against meningococcus B in adolescence proved cost-effective. The study highlights the need to actively offer the anti-MenB vaccination during adolescence at a national level. This would make it possible to avoid premature deaths and reduce the high costs borne by the National Health Service and by society of supporting survivors who suffer temporary and/or permanent sequelae

Efficacy and safety of nilotinib as frontline treatment in elderly (> 65 years) chronic myeloid leukemia patients outside clinical trials

Here, we report real-world evidence on the safety and efficacy of nilotinib as a first-line treatment in elderly patients with chronic phase CML, treated in 18 Italian centers. Sixty patients aged &gt; 65 years (median age 72 years (65-84)) were reported: 13 patients were older than 75 years. Comorbidities were recorded at baseline in 56/60 patients. At 3 months of treatment, all patients obtained complete hematological response (CHR), 43 (71.6%) an early molecular response (EMR), while 47 (78%) reached a complete cytogenetic response (CCyR). At last follow-up, 63.4% of patients still had a deep molecular response (MR4 or better), 21.6% reached MR3 as best response and 11.6% persisted without MR. Most patients (85%) started the treatment at the standard dose (300 mg BID), maintained at 3 months in 80% of patients and at 6 months in 89% of them. At the last median follow-up of 46.3 months, 15 patients discontinued definitively the treatment (8 due to side effects, 4 died for unrelated CML causes, 1 for failure, 2 were lost to follow-up). One patient entered in treatment-free remission. As to safety, 6 patients (10%) experienced cardiovascular events after a median time of 20.9 months from the start. Our data showed that nilotinib could be, as first-line treatment, effective and relatively safe even in elderly CML patients. In this setting, more data in the long term are needed about possible dose reduction to improve the tolerability, while maintaining the optimal molecular response