Mangroves as nature-based mitigation for ENSO-driven compound flood risks in a large river delta

Densely populated coastal river deltas are very vulnerable to compound flood risks coming from both oceanic and riverine sources. Climate change may increase these compound flood risks due to sea level rise and intensifying precipitation events. Here, we investigate to what extent nature-based flood defence strategies, through the conservation of mangroves in a tropical river delta, can contribute to mitigate the oceanic and riverine components of compound flood risks. While current knowledge of estuarine compound flood risks is mostly focussed on short-term events such as storm surges (taking 1 or a few days), longer-term events, such as El Niño events (continuing for several weeks to months) along the Pacific coast of Latin America, are less studied. Here, we present a hydrodynamic modelling study of a large river delta in Ecuador aiming to elucidate the compound effects of El Niño-driven oceanic and riverine forcing on extreme high water level propagation through the delta and, in particular, the role of mangroves in reducing the compound high water levels. Our results show that the deltaic high water level anomalies are predominantly driven by the oceanic forcing but that the riverine forcing causes the anomalies to amplify upstream. Furthermore, mangroves in the delta attenuate part of the oceanic contribution to the high water level anomalies, with the attenuating effect increasing in the landward direction, while mangroves have a negligible effect on the riverine component. These findings show that mangrove conservation and restoration programmes can contribute to nature-based mitigation, especially the oceanic component of compound flood risks in a tropical river delta.</p

Clinical features and outcomes of elderly hospitalised patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart failure or both

Background and objective: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and heart failure (HF) mutually increase the risk of being present in the same patient, especially if older. Whether or not this coexistence may be associated with a worse prognosis is debated. Therefore, employing data derived from the REPOSI register, we evaluated the clinical features and outcomes in a population of elderly patients admitted to internal medicine wards and having COPD, HF or COPD + HF. Methods: We measured socio-demographic and anthropometric characteristics, severity and prevalence of comorbidities, clinical and laboratory features during hospitalization, mood disorders, functional independence, drug prescriptions and discharge destination. The primary study outcome was the risk of death. Results: We considered 2,343 elderly hospitalized patients (median age 81&nbsp;years), of whom 1,154 (49%) had COPD, 813 (35%) HF, and 376 (16%) COPD + HF. Patients with COPD + HF had different characteristics than those with COPD or HF, such as a higher prevalence of previous hospitalizations, comorbidities (especially chronic kidney disease), higher respiratory rate at admission and number of prescribed drugs. Patients with COPD + HF (hazard ratio HR 1.74, 95% confidence intervals CI 1.16-2.61) and patients with dementia (HR 1.75, 95% CI 1.06-2.90) had a higher risk of death at one year. The Kaplan-Meier curves showed a higher mortality risk in the group of patients with COPD + HF for all causes (p = 0.010), respiratory causes (p = 0.006), cardiovascular causes (p = 0.046) and respiratory plus cardiovascular causes (p = 0.009). Conclusion: In this real-life cohort of hospitalized elderly patients, the coexistence of COPD and HF significantly worsened prognosis at one year. This finding may help to better define the care needs of this population

Loss of a freshwater copepod species from El Junco Lake, Galápagos following the introduction and eradication of the Nile tilapia

An undescribed diaptomid copepod probably belonging to a new Mastigodiaptomus species has been discovered and was very abundant in El Junco Lake (San Cristóbal Island, Ecuador) from 1966 until 2004. The species was not found in samples from 2007, 2008 or 2018. The loss of this key species from the lake coincides with the illegal introduction of Nile tilapia to El Junco Lake in 2005 and its subsequent eradication in 2008. The disappearance of this biogeographically and ecologically important copepod population may be explained by direct mechanisms of predation and competition, by a combination of both processes, and by indirect mechanisms linked to alterations in the lake ecosystem. The effects of fish eradication using rotenone may have contributed to the loss of the diaptomid population and to preventing its recovery. This article discusses the search for sources of propagules for recolonization and possible reintroduction scenarios and procedures