Capital Flows and Real Exchange Rates in Emerging Asian Countries

This paper examines the nexus between capital flows and real exchange rate (RER) in emerging Asian countries using a dynamic panel-data model for 2000–2009. In contrast to previous studies, capital flows here are separated into foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investment, and other investment (bank loans) flows. Inflows and outflows are also treated separately in the model. The estimation results show that compositions of capital flows matter in determining impacts of the flows on the RER. Portfolio investment and other investment (including bank loans) bring in a faster RER appreciation than FDI. However, the magnitudes of appreciation among capital flows are close to each other. The increasing importance of merger and acquisition activities in FDI makes the flows behave closer to other forms of capital flows, especially portfolio investment. The estimation results also show that capital outflows bring about a greater degree of exchange rate adjustment than capital inflows. All in all, the results imply that the swift rebound of capital flows in the region could result in excessive appreciation of the (real) currencies, especially when capital flows are in a form of portfolio investment and bank loans

The Currency of the People’s Republic of China and Production Fragmentation

This paper examines how an appreciation of the currency of the People's Republic of China (PRC) - renminbi - affects the country's exports in the context of production fragmentation, using a panel data set of the PRC's trade for 1992/93-2008/09. It constructs two exchange rates for renminbi: one is a bilateral real exchange rate and the other is a real effective exchange rate against East Asian component suppliers. It is found that appreciation of the renminbi would somewhat offset a reduction in the volume of the PRC's exports induced by lower importing costs of components. Hence, evidence casts further doubts on the efficacy of further unilateral reform of the renminbi exchange rate regime on correcting trade imbalances

The rise of China in the international trade network: a community core detection approach

Theory of complex networks proved successful in the description of a variety of static networks ranging from biology to computer and social sciences and to economics and finance. Here we use network models to describe the evolution of a particular economic system, namely the International Trade Network (ITN). Previous studies often assume that globalization and regionalization in international trade are contradictory to each other. We re-examine the relationship between globalization and regionalization by viewing the international trade system as an interdependent complex network. We use the modularity optimization method to detect communities and community cores in the ITN during the years 1995-2011. We find rich dynamics over time both inter- and intra-communities. Most importantly, we have a multilevel description of the evolution where the global dynamics (i.e., communities disappear or reemerge) tend to be correlated with the regional dynamics (i.e., community core changes between community members). In particular, the Asia-Oceania community disappeared and reemerged over time along with a switch in leadership from Japan to China. Moreover, simulation results show that the global dynamics can be generated by a preferential attachment mechanism both inter- and intra- communities

Association of Southeast Asian Nations, People's Republic of China, and India Growth and the Rest of the World: The Role of Trade

This paper explores the impact of past and future growth in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)1 Since the mid-1990s, ACI growth has improved the non-oil terms of trade of the developed countries. There have also been strong complementarities between ACI suppliers of intermediate inputs and PRC exports. More developed Asian countries have benefited from PRC capital goods demand. ACI growth has, however, put competitive pressures on other less-developed manufacturing exporters, worsening their terms of trade and constraining their pricing ability. ACI growth has been especially beneficial for oil and minerals commodity producers. On the other hand, net food importers and oil importing countries have been adversely affected by high import costs. , the People's Republic of China (PRC), and India - here referred to as the ACI countries - on aggregate welfare, relative wages, and global emissions in the rest of the world. It outlines several analytical frameworks, considers effects over the past decade and, based on consensus forecasts, the implications of that growth for the rest of the world in the decades to come. Future ACI growth provides opportunities and challenges for the rest of the world. For developed countries the opportunities are for selling high-end services and capital and consumer goods in the ACI markets and enjoying the benefits from intra-industry trade; the challenges will come from increased head-to-head competition in manufactured goods and services that should become more intense in future decades. For medium-income producers currently at between 30% and 60% of US levels, there will be a tougher tradeoff between more intensive competition with the PRC and serving the growing middle classes in ACI countries. For poorer countries, there will greater opportunities for becoming part of global supply chains in manufactured exports. Standard frameworks that assume internal factor mobility suggest continuing pressures for wage inequality in developed countries. But these hinge on the assumption that the ACI and developed countries will continue to produce similar products and that the ACI will specialize in unskilled labor-intensive products. In fact, as their exports become more technology - intensive and developed countries more specialized these pressures could be alleviated. On the one hand, as the "flying geese" process continues, exports from countries with lower incomes than the PRC are likely to displace PRC labor-intensive exports rather than domestic production in developed countries. On the other hand, while it may cause job loss and erode the returns to specific factors, PRC export growth is less likely to be a source of wage inequality in advanced economies

Exports and Employment in Indonesia: The Decline in Labor-Intensive Manufacturing and the Rise of Services

Employment generation has been a challenge in Indonesia since the Asian financial crisis, especially in labor-intensive manufacturing. Drawing on work by James and Fujita (2000), this paper examines the impact of exports on jobs, based on an analysis of input–output tables over the period 1995–2005. It finds that fewer jobs were created through exports in manufacturing industries in 2005 than before the crisis, because of slower growth in manufacturing exports and a shift away from light industry. The slowdown is potentially costly due to the endemic elastic supply of unskilled labor. However, there was an increase in jobs in the services sector, partly because of indirect connections with the main export industries. This could be enhanced through greater domestic and international competition in services. The main constraints to job creation through exports appear on the supply side, especially those related to poor infrastructure, an uncertain investment climate, and tight labor regulations

Diagnosing gestational diabetes

The newly proposed criteria for diagnosing gestational diabetes will result in a gestational diabetes prevalence of 17.8%, doubling the numbers of pregnant women currently diagnosed. These new diagnostic criteria are based primarily on the levels of glucose associated with a 1.75-fold increased risk of giving birth to large-for-gestational age infants (LGA) in the Hyperglycemia Adverse Pregnancy Outcome (HAPO) study; they use a single OGTT. Thus, of 23,316 pregnancies, gestational diabetes would be diagnosed in 4,150 women rather than in 2,448 women if a twofold increased risk of LGA were used. It should be recognised that the majority of women with LGA have normal glucose levels during pregnancy by these proposed criteria and that maternal obesity is a stronger predictor of LGA. The expected benefit of a diagnosis of gestational diabetes in these 1,702 additional women would be the prevention of 140 cases of LGA, 21 cases of shoulder dystocia and 16 cases of birth injury. The reproducibility of an OGTT for diagnosing mild hyperglycaemia is poor. Given that (1) glucose is a weak predictor of LGA, (2) treating these extra numbers has a modest outcome benefit and (3) the diagnosis may be based on a single raised OGTT value, further debate should occur before resources are allocated to implementing this change

Deep Integration and Production Networks: An Empirical Analysis

In this paper, the two way relationship between deep integration and production networks trade is investigated. Deep integration is captured by a set of indices constructed in terms of policy areas covered in preferential trade agreements. An augmented gravity equation is estimated to investigate the impact of deep integration on production networks. The results show that on average, signing deeper agreements increases production networks trade between member countries by almost 35 percentage points. In addition, the impact of deep integration is higher for trade in automobile parts and information and technology products compared with textiles products. To analyse whether higher levels of network trade increase the likelihood of signing deeper agreements the literature on the determinants of preferential trade agreements is followed. The estimation results show that, after taking into account other PTAs determinants, a ten per cent increase in the share of production network trade over total trade increases the depth of an agreement by approximately 6 percentage points. In addition, the probability of signing deeper agreements is higher for country pairs involved in North-South production sharing and for countries belonging to the Asia region

Globalization and Trade Flows: What You See is Not What You Get!

The trade collapse that followed the recent financial crisis has led to a renewed interest on the measurement issues affecting international merchandise trade statistics in the new globalized economy. The international fragmentation of industrial production blurs the concept of country of origin and calls for the production of new statistics on the domestic content of exports, with a view of estimating trade in value added. Alongside, the international statistical community has revised in 2010 the concepts and definitions on both, international merchandise trade and trade in services statistics. This paper discusses the various issues related to the concepts of goods for processing and intra firm trade in trade statistics, and provides an overview of the method of analysing the impact of the fragmentation of production in international value chains