Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although the traditional comparison of the series may suggest that they share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain times and around turning points that can not be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching that offers several ways in which these differences can be analyzed. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each one series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors represent exactly where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We also find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginning and end of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases.Measurement Error, Divisia Index, Aggregation, State Space, Markov Switching, Monetary Policy

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the inferences’ policy relevance, which is particularly dramatic at the broadest (M3) level of aggregation. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, “measurement matters.”Measurement Error, Divisia Index, Aggregation, State Space, Markov Switching, Monetary Policy

Measurement Error in Monetary Aggregates: A Markov Switching Factor Approach

This paper compares the different dynamics of the simple sum monetary aggregates and the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes over time, over the business cycle, and across high and low inflation and interest rate phases. Although traditional comparisons of the series sometimes suggest that simple sum and Divisia monetary aggregates share similar dynamics, there are important differences during certain periods, such as around turning points. These differences cannot be evaluated by their average behavior. We use a factor model with regime switching. The model separates out the common movements underlying the monetary aggregate indexes, summarized in the dynamic factor, from individual variations in each individual series, captured by the idiosyncratic terms. The idiosyncratic terms and the measurement errors reveal where the monetary indexes differ. We find several new results. In general, the idiosyncratic terms for both the simple sum aggregates and the Divisia indexes display a business cycle pattern, especially since 1980. They generally rise around the end of high interest rate phases – a couple of quarters before the beginning of recessions – and fall during recessions to subsequently converge to their average in the beginning of expansions. We find that the major differences between the simple sum aggregates and Divisia indexes occur around the beginnings and ends of economic recessions, and during some high interest rate phases. We note the policy relevance of the inferences. Indeed, as Belongia (1996) has observed in this regard, "measurement matters."Measurement error; monetary aggregation; Divisia index; aggregation; state space; Markov switching; monetary policy; index number theory; factor models

Arkansas Cotton Variety Test 2016

The primary goal of the Arkansas Cotton Variety Test is to provide unbiased data regarding the agronomic performance of cotton varieties and advanced breeding lines in the major cotton-growing areas of Arkansas

Frictional quantum decoherence

The dynamics associated with a measurement-based master equation for quantum Brownian motion are investigated. A scheme for obtaining time evolution from general initial conditions is derived. This is applied to analyze dissipation and decoherence in the evolution of both a Gaussian and a Schr\"{o}dinger cat initial state. Dependence on the diffusive terms present in the master equation is discussed with reference to both the coordinate and momentum representations.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figure

Atmospheric transmission computer program CP

A computer program is described which allows for calculation of the effects of carbon dioxide, water vapor, methane, ozone, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide on earth resources remote sensing techniques. A flow chart of the program and operating instructions are provided. Comparisons are made between the atmospheric transmission obtained from laboratory and spacecraft spectrometer data and that obtained from a computer prediction using a model atmosphere and radiosonde data. Limitations of the model atmosphere are discussed. The computer program listings, input card formats, and sample runs for both radiosonde data and laboratory data are included

Simulation of 3-D viscous flow within a multi-stage turbine

This work outlines a procedure for simulating the flow field within multistage turbomachinery which includes the effects of unsteadiness, compressibility, and viscosity. The associated modeling equations are the average passage equation system which governs the time-averaged flow field within a typical passage of a blade row embedded within a multistage configuration. The results from a simulation of a low aspect ratio stage and a one-half turbine will be presented and compared with experimental measurements. It will be shown that the secondary flow field generated by the rotor causes the aerodynamic performance of the downstream vane to be significantly different from that of an isolated blade row

Liver transplant recipients’ experiences and perspectives of a telehealth-delivered lifestyle programme A qualitative study

Introduction Dietary modification and exercise are encouraged to address cardiometabolic risk factors after solid organ transplantation. However, the lived experience of attempting positive lifestyle changes for liver transplant recipients is not known. The aim of this study was to explore the experiences of liver transplant recipients and their perspectives of a 12-week telehealth lifestyle programme and assess the feasibility of this innovative health service. Methods Focus groups and one-on-one interviews were conducted with participants who had completed a 12-week, group-based, telehealth-delivered diet and exercise programme and thematic qualitative analysis was used to code and theme the data. Results In total, 19 liver transplant recipients participated in the study (25-68 years, median time since transplant 4.4 years, 63% male). Overarching themes included: (a) 'broad telehealth advantages' which highlighted that telehealth reduced the perceived burdens of face-to-face care; (b) 'impact of employment' which identified employment as a competing priority and appeared to effect involvement with the programme; (c) 'adapting Mediterranean eating pattern to meet individual needs' which identified the adaptability of the Mediterranean diet supported by sessions with the dietitian; (d) 'increasing exercise confidence' which recognised that a tailored approach facilitated confidence and acceptability of the exercise component of the programme. Discussion A telehealth lifestyle programme delivered by dietitians and exercise physiologists is an acceptable alternative to face-to-face care that can meet the needs of liver transplant recipients. There is a need to further innovate and broaden the scope of routine service delivery beyond face-to-face consultations