Network Structure Explains the Impact of Attitudes on Voting Decisions

Attitudes can have a profound impact on socially relevant behaviours, such as voting. However, this effect is not uniform across situations or individuals, and it is at present difficult to predict whether attitudes will predict behaviour in any given circumstance. Using a network model, we demonstrate that (a) more strongly connected attitude networks have a stronger impact on behaviour, and (b) within any given attitude network, the most central attitude elements have the strongest impact. We test these hypotheses using data on voting and attitudes toward presidential candidates in the US presidential elections from 1980 to 2012. These analyses confirm that the predictive value of attitude networks depends almost entirely on their level of connectivity, with more central attitude elements having stronger impact. The impact of attitudes on voting behaviour can thus be reliably determined before elections take place by using network analyses.Comment: Final version published in Scientific Report

Indirect costs of disease; an international comparison

Results of economic evaluations are often strongly influenced by estimates of indirect costs. International comparability of these estimates may contribute to rational decision-making in health care policy. Hence, estimates should be international comparable. Comparability of these results between countries may be hampered due to variation in methodology, data sources, valuation of production losses, and social security arrangements. Furthermore differences in epidemiology, demography and economic environment may cause variation in the level and the distribution by diagnosis of indirect costs. In this study indirect costs of disease for the Netherlands are compared with estimates for Sweden and the United States. We found large differences: both in the share of indirect costs in GDP as in the constituting elements, absence from work, disability and mortality. The level of indirect costs due to absence from work and the distribution according to diagnosis are quite similar for the two European countries. The costs of disability are particularly high for the Netherlands. Comparison of disability costs between the three countries is hampered due to lack of quantitative information on the influence of social insurance arrangements on the level of indirect costs and the distribution by diagnosis. The large number of deaths at young age in the U.S. is responsible for the higher mortality costs compared to the two European countries

Do large language models solve verbal analogies like children do?

Analogy-making lies at the heart of human cognition. Adults solve analogies such as \textit{Horse belongs to stable like chicken belongs to ...?} by mapping relations (\textit{kept in}) and answering \textit{chicken coop}. In contrast, children often use association, e.g., answering \textit{egg}. This paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) solve verbal analogies in A:B::C:? form using associations, similar to what children do. We use verbal analogies extracted from an online adaptive learning environment, where 14,002 7-12 year-olds from the Netherlands solved 622 analogies in Dutch. The six tested Dutch monolingual and multilingual LLMs performed around the same level as children, with MGPT performing worst, around the 7-year-old level, and XLM-V and GPT-3 the best, slightly above the 11-year-old level. However, when we control for associative processes this picture changes and each model's performance level drops 1-2 years. Further experiments demonstrate that associative processes often underlie correctly solved analogies. We conclude that the LLMs we tested indeed tend to solve verbal analogies by association with C like children do

Urnings:A new method for tracking dynamically changing parameters in paired comparison systems

We introduce a new rating system for tracking the development of parameters based on a stream of observations that can be viewed as paired comparisons. Rating systems are applied in competitive games, adaptive learning systems and platforms for product and service reviews. We model each observation as an outcome of a game of chance that depends on the parameters of interest (e.g. the outcome of a chess game depends on the abilities of the two players). Determining the probabilities of the different game outcomes is conceptualized as an urn problem, where a rating is represented by a probability (i.e. proportion of balls in the urn). This setup allows for evaluating the standard errors of the ratings and performing statistical inferences about the development of, and relations between, parameters. Theoretical properties of the system in terms of the invariant distributions of the ratings and their convergence are derived. The properties of the rating system are illustrated with simulated examples and its potential for answering research questions is illustrated using data from competitive chess, a movie review system, and an adaptive learning system for math