Fertility Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Developed Countries – On Pre-pandemic Fertility Forecasts

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all areas of our lives. Among other outcomes, the academic literature and popular media both discuss the potential effects of the pandemic on fertility. As fertility is an important determinant of population development and population forecasts are important for policy decisions and planning, we need to address to which extent fertility forecasts performed before the pandemic still apply. Using Monte Carlo forecasting based on principal components of fertility rates, we quantify the effects of the pandemic on fertility for 22 countries and discuss whether forecasts made prior to the pandemic need adjustment based on more recent data. Among the studied countries, 14 countries show no significant effect of the pandemic at all, while six countries have significantly lowered numbers of births in comparison to counterfactual trajectories that assume that past trends will hold. These countries are primarily in the Mediterranean and East Asia. For Finland and South Korea, there is statistical evidence for increased fertility in the early phases of the pandemic. In all cases with statistically significant fertility differentials caused by the pandemic, reproductive behavior normalized quickly. Therefore, we find no evidence for long-term effects of the pandemic on fertility, leading to the conclusion that pre-pandemic fertility forecasts still apply

Diagnostic delay does not influence survival of pancreatic cancer patients

Background: Most pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients present with advanced disease. Whether it is possible to increase survival by earlier diagnosis is unclear. Objective: The purpose of this study was to investigate the association between presenting complaints and risk factors for pancreatic cancer with diagnostic delay, stage and survival. Methods: This was a single-centre retrospective cohort study. Consecutive patients were interviewed and data on demographics, medical history, risk factors and complaints leading to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma diagnosis and disease stage were recorded. Diagnostic delay was considered as time between first complaint and diagnosis. Patients received appropriate treatments and their outcome was recorded in a dedicated database. The Chi-square test for comparison of categorical variables and the Mann–Whitney test for continuous variables were employed with Bonferroni corrections. Correlation between continuous variables was evaluated by means of the Spearman correlation coefficient. Survival analysis was performed with the Kaplan–Meier method and a log-rank test. Results: The median diagnostic delay for 477 pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients was two months (interquartile range 1–5), being significantly shorter for patients presenting with jaundice compared with those with pain, weight loss, diabetes (p < 0.001). The global rate of metastatic disease at diagnosis was 40%, being only 22% in those presenting with jaundice. The median diagnostic delay, however, was not significantly different among disease stages but was significantly longer in patients with a body mass index>25 kg/m2. The median survival time was seven months. Factors associated with worse survival at the multivariable analysis were older age (hazard ratio 1.02 per year), metastatic disease (hazard ratio 2.12) and pain as presenting complaint (hazard ratio 1.32), while diagnostic delay was not. Conclusion: While some complaints are associated with a shorter diagnostic delay and less advanced disease stage, we could not demonstrate that delay is associated with survival, possibly suggesting that prevention rather than early recognition is important to tackle pancreatic cancer lethality

Use of small scale electrical resistivity tomography to identify soil-root interactions during deficit irrigation

Plant roots activity affect the exchanges of mass and energy between the soil and atmosphere. However, it is challenging to monitor the activity of the root-zone because roots are not visible from the soil surface, and root systems undergo spatial and temporal variations in response to internal and external conditions. Therefore, measurements of the activity of root systems are interesting to ecohydrologists in general, and are especially important for specific applications, such as irrigation water management. This study demonstrates the use of small scale three-dimensional (3-D) electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) to monitor the root-zone of orange trees irrigated by two different regimes: (i) full rate, in which 100% of the crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is provided; and (ii) partial root-zone drying (PRD), in which 50% of ETc is supplied to alternate sides of the tree. We performed time-lapse 3-D ERT measurements on these trees from 5 June to 24 September 2015, and compared the long-term and short-term changes before, during, and after irrigation events. Given the small changes in soil temperature and pore water electrical conductivity, we interpreted changes of soil electrical resistivity from 3-D ERT data as proxies for changes in soil water content. The ERT results are consistent with measurements of transpiration flux and soil temperature. The changes in electrical resistivity obtained from ERT measurements in this case study indicate that root water uptake (RWU) processes occur at the 0.1 m scale, and highlight the impact of different irrigation schemes. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Ostomy closure rate during COVID-19 pandemic. An Italian multicentre observational study

During the corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, most of the surgical procedures were performed for emergencies or oncologic reasons to the detriment of the remaining elective procedures for benign conditions. Ileostomy or colostomy creation are sequelae of oncologic or emergency colorectal surgery, but their closure does not fall within the definition of oncologic or emergency surgery. The aim of this retrospective multicentre observational study is to report the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the ostomy closure rate in Italy. Data regarding ileostomy and colostomy creation and closure from 24 Italian centres, during the study period (March 2020–February 2021) and during the control period (March 2019–February 2020) were collected. Three hospitals (12.5%) were COVID free. The number of colostomies and ileostomies created and closed in the same period was lower (-18.8% and-30%, respectively) in the study period in comparison to the control period (p = 0.1915 and p = 0.0001, respectively), such as the ostomies closed in the analysed periods but created before (colostomy-36.2% and ileostomy-7.4%, p = 0.2211 and p = 0.1319, respectively). Overall, a 19.5% reduction in ostomies closed occurred in the study period. Based on the present study, a reduction in ostomy closure rate occurred in Italy between March 2020 and February 2021. During the pandemic, the need to change the clinical practice probably prolonged deterioration of quality of life in patients with ostomies, increasing number of stomas that will never be closed, and related management costs, even if these issues have not been investigated in this study

Real Life Clinical Management and Survival in Advanced Cutaneous Melanoma: The Italian Clinical National Melanoma Registry Experience

Background: Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is one of the most aggressive types of skin cancer. Currently, innovative approaches such as target therapies and immunotherapies have been introduced in clinical practice. Data of clinical trials and real life studies that evaluate the outcomes of these therapeutic associations are necessary to establish their clinical utility. The aim of this study is to investigate the types of oncological treatments employed in the real-life clinical management of patients with advanced CM in several Italian centers, which are part of the Clinical National Melanoma Registry (CNMR). Methods: Melanoma-specific survival and overall survival were calculated. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios adjusting for confounders and other prognostic factors. Results: The median follow-up time was 36 months (range 1.2-185.1). 787 CM were included in the analysis with completed information about therapies. All types of immunotherapy showed a significant improved survival compared with all other therapies (p=0.001). 75% was the highest reduction of death reached by anti-PD-1 (HR=0.25), globally immunotherapy was significantly associated with improved survival, either for anti-CTLA4 monotherapy or combined with anti-PD-1 (HR=0.47 and 0.26, respectively) and BRAFI+MEKI (HR=0.62). Conclusions: The nivolumab/pembrolizumab in combination of ipilimumab and the addition of ant-MEK to the BRAFi can be considered the best therapies to improve survival in a real-world-population. The CNMR can complement clinical registries with the intent of improving cancer management and standardizing cancer treatment

ASFISSIA PERINATALE:VALUTAZIONE CLINICO-EPIDEMIOLOGICA IN UN CAMPIONE DI NEONATI DI ≥ 34 SEG

Asfissia, late preterm, a termin

Effects of hospital facilities on patient outcomes after cancer surgery: an international, prospective, observational study

Background Early death after cancer surgery is higher in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) compared with in high-income countries, yet the impact of facility characteristics on early postoperative outcomes is unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the association between hospital infrastructure, resource availability, and processes on early outcomes after cancer surgery worldwide.Methods A multimethods analysis was performed as part of the GlobalSurg 3 study-a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study of patients who had surgery for breast, colorectal, or gastric cancer. The primary outcomes were 30-day mortality and 30-day major complication rates. Potentially beneficial hospital facilities were identified by variable selection to select those associated with 30-day mortality. Adjusted outcomes were determined using generalised estimating equations to account for patient characteristics and country-income group, with population stratification by hospital.Findings Between April 1, 2018, and April 23, 2019, facility-level data were collected for 9685 patients across 238 hospitals in 66 countries (91 hospitals in 20 high-income countries; 57 hospitals in 19 upper-middle-income countries; and 90 hospitals in 27 low-income to lower-middle-income countries). The availability of five hospital facilities was inversely associated with mortality: ultrasound, CT scanner, critical care unit, opioid analgesia, and oncologist. After adjustment for case-mix and country income group, hospitals with three or fewer of these facilities (62 hospitals, 1294 patients) had higher mortality compared with those with four or five (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.85 [95% CI 2.58-5.75]; p<0.0001), with excess mortality predominantly explained by a limited capacity to rescue following the development of major complications (63.0% vs 82.7%; OR 0.35 [0.23-0.53]; p<0.0001). Across LMICs, improvements in hospital facilities would prevent one to three deaths for every 100 patients undergoing surgery for cancer.Interpretation Hospitals with higher levels of infrastructure and resources have better outcomes after cancer surgery, independent of country income. Without urgent strengthening of hospital infrastructure and resources, the reductions in cancer-associated mortality associated with improved access will not be realised