1,424 research outputs found

    Discriminative learning of Bayesian networks via factorized conditional log-likelihood

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    We propose an efficient and parameter-free scoring criterion, the factorized conditional log-likelihood (ˆfCLL), for learning Bayesian network classifiers. The proposed score is an approximation of the conditional log-likelihood criterion. The approximation is devised in order to guarantee decomposability over the network structure, as well as efficient estimation of the optimal parameters, achieving the same time and space complexity as the traditional log-likelihood scoring criterion. The resulting criterion has an information-theoretic interpretation based on interaction information, which exhibits its discriminative nature. To evaluate the performance of the proposed criterion, we present an empirical comparison with state-of-the-art classifiers. Results on a large suite of benchmark data sets from the UCI repository show that ˆfCLL-trained classifiers achieve at least as good accuracy as the best compared classifiers, using significantly less computational resources.Peer reviewe

    Hubble flow variance and the cosmic rest frame

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    We characterize the radial and angular variance of the Hubble flow in the COMPOSITE sample of 4534 galaxies, on scales in which much of the flow is in the nonlinear regime. With no cosmological assumptions other than the existence of a suitably averaged linear Hubble law, we find with decisive Bayesian evidence (ln B >> 5) that the Hubble constant averaged in independent spherical radial shells is closer to its asymptotic value when referred to the rest frame of the Local Group, rather than the standard rest frame of the Cosmic Microwave Background. An exception occurs for radial shells in the range 40/h-60/h Mpc. Angular averages reveal a dipole structure in the Hubble flow, whose amplitude changes markedly over the range 32/h-62/h Mpc. Whereas the LG frame dipole is initially constant and then decreases significantly, the CMB frame dipole initially decreases but then increases. The map of angular Hubble flow variation in the LG rest frame is found to coincide with that of the residual CMB temperature dipole, with correlation coefficient -0.92. These results are difficult to reconcile with the standard kinematic interpretation of the motion of the Local Group in response to the clustering dipole, but are consistent with a foreground non-kinematic anisotropy in the distance-redshift relation of 0.5% on scales up to 65/h Mpc. Effectively, the differential expansion of space produced by nearby nonlinear structures of local voids and denser walls and filaments cannot be reduced to a local boost. This hypothesis suggests a reinterpretation of bulk flows, which may potentially impact on calibration of supernovae distances, anomalies associated with large angles in the CMB anisotropy spectrum, and the dark flow inferred from the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect. It is consistent with recent studies that find evidence for a non-kinematic dipole in the distribution of distant radio sources.Comment: 37 pages, 9 tables, 13 figures; v2 adds extensive new analysis (including additional subsections, tables, figures); v3 adds a Monte Carlo analysis (with additional table, figure) which further tightens the statistical robustness of the dipole results; v4 adds further clarifications, small corrections, references and discussion of Planck satellite results; v5 typos fixed, matches published versio

    Dark energy as a mirage

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    Motivated by the observed cosmic matter distribution, we present the following conjecture: due to the formation of voids and opaque structures, the average matter density on the path of the light from the well-observed objects changes from Omega_M ~ 1 in the homogeneous early universe to Omega_M ~ 0 in the clumpy late universe, so that the average expansion rate increases along our line of sight from EdS expansion Ht ~ 2/3 at high redshifts to free expansion Ht ~ 1 at low redshifts. To calculate the modified observable distance-redshift relations, we introduce a generalized Dyer-Roeder method that allows for two crucial physical properties of the universe: inhomogeneities in the expansion rate and the growth of the nonlinear structures. By treating the transition redshift to the void-dominated era as a free parameter, we find a phenomenological fit to the observations from the CMB anisotropy, the position of the baryon oscillation peak, the magnitude-redshift relations of type Ia supernovae, the local Hubble flow and the nucleosynthesis, resulting in a concordant model of the universe with 90% dark matter, 10% baryons, no dark energy, 15 Gyr as the age of the universe and a natural value for the transition redshift z_0=0.35. Unlike a large local void, the model respects the cosmological principle, further offering an explanation for the late onset of the perceived acceleration as a consequence of the forming nonlinear structures. Additional tests, such as quantitative predictions for angular deviations due to an anisotropic void distribution and a theoretical derivation of the model, can vindicate or falsify the interpretation that light propagation in voids is responsible for the perceived acceleration.Comment: 33 pages, 2 figs; v2: minor clarifications, results unchanged; v3: matches the version published in General Relativity and Gravitatio
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