Change point analysis of historical battle deaths

It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented, publicly-available battle deaths datasets, using new techniques that enable the robust detection of changes in the statistical properties of such heavy-tailed data. We first test and calibrate these techniques. We then demonstrate the existence of changes, independent of data presentation, at around 1910 and 1950 CE, bracketing the World Wars, and around the 1830s and 1994 CE. Our analysis provides a methodology for future investigations and an empirical basis for political and historical discussions.Comment: 24 pages, 11 figure

An exploration of the relationships among facial dimensions, age, sex, dominance status and personality in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta)

Aspects of personality in nonhuman primates have been linked to health, social relationships, and life history outcomes. In humans as well as nonhuman primates, facial morphology is associated with assertiveness, aggression, and measures of dominance status. In this study we aimed to examine the relationship among facial morphology, age, sex, dominance status, and ratings on the personality dimensions Confidence, Openness, Assertiveness, Friendliness, Activity, and Anxiety in rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta). We measured facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) and lower-height/full-height ratio (fLHFH) using photographs from 109 captive rhesus macaques, which observers also assessed for dominance status and personality, and explored the associations among facial morphology, age, sex, dominance status, and personality. fWHR and fLHFH personality associations depended on age category: Assertiveness was associated with higher fWHR and fLHFH, and Confidence was associated with lower fWHR and fLHFH, but all these associations were consistent only in individuals <8 yr. of age. We found fWHR and fLHFH to not be consistently associated with sex or dominance status; compared to younger individuals, we found few associations with fWHR and fLHFH for individuals older than 8 yr., which may be due to limited sample size. Our results indicate that in macaques <8 yr. old, facial morphology is associated with the Assertiveness and Confidence personality dimensions, which is consistent with results suggesting a relationship between fWHR and trait aggression in humans and assertiveness in brown capuchins, all of which implies that fWHR might be a cue to assertive and aggressive traits

Identifying stationary phases in multivariate time series for highlighting behavioural modes and home range settlements

Recent advances in biologging open promising perspectives in the study of animal movements at numerous scales. It is now possible to record time series of animal locations and ancillary data (e.g. activity level derived from on‐board accelerometers) over extended areas and long durations with a high spatial and temporal resolution. Such time series are often piecewise stationary, as the animal may alternate between different stationary phases (i.e. characterized by a specific mean and variance of some key parameter for limited periods). Identifying when these phases start and end is a critical first step to understand the dynamics of the underlying movement processes. We introduce a new segmentation‐clustering method we called segclust2d (available as a r package at cran.r-project.org/package=segclust2d). It can segment bivariate (or more generally multivariate) time series and possibly cluster the various segments obtained, corresponding to different phases assumed to be stationary. This method is easy to use, as it only requires specifying a minimum segment length (to prevent over‐segmentation), based on biological rather than statistical considerations. This method can be applied to bivariate piecewise time series of any nature. We focus here on two types of time series related to animal movement, corresponding to (a) at large scale, series of bivariate coordinates of relocations, to highlight temporary home ranges, and (b) at smaller scale, bivariate series derived from relocations data, such as speed and turning angle, to highlight different behavioural modes such as transit, feeding and resting. Using computer simulations, we show that segclust2d can rival and even outperform previous, more complex methods, which were specifically developed to highlight changes of movement modes or home range shifts (based on hidden Markov and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck modelling), which, contrary to our method, usually require the user to provide relevant initial guesses to be efficient. Furthermore, we demonstrate it on actual examples involving a zebra's small‐scale movements and an elephant's large‐scale movements, to illustrate how various movement modes and home range shifts, respectively, can be identified.The code of the method is publicly available as an R package (cran.r‐proje ct.org/packa ge=segcl ust2d ). The data used in the examples (24‐hr GPS track of a plains zebra and GPS track of an African el-ephant recorded for >2.5 years) are available on Dryad: https: //doi. org/10.5061/dryad.2j63369 (Patin, Etienne, Lebarbier, Chamaillé‐Jammes, & Benhamou, 2019).The Grant ANR‐16‐CE02‐0001‐01 of the French ‘Agence Nationale de la Recherche', and the Zone Atelier program of the CNRS.http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jane2020-09-20hj2019Zoology and Entomolog

In situ transcriptomic and metabolomic study of the loss of photosynthesis in the leaves of mixotrophic plants exploiting fungi

International audienceMycoheterotrophic plants have lost photosynthesis and obtain carbon through mycorrhizal fungi colonizing their roots. They are likely to have evolved from mixotrophic ancestors, which rely on both photosynthesis and fungal carbon for their development. Whereas our understanding of the ecological and genomic changes associated with the evolutionary shift to mycoheterotrophy is deepening, little information is known about the specific metabolic and physiological features driving this evolution. We investigated this issue in naturally occurring achlorophyllous variants of temperate mixotrophic orchids. We carried out an integrated transcriptomic and metabolomic analysis of the response to achlorophylly in the leaves of three mixotrophic species sampled in natura. Achlorophyllous leaves showed major impairment of their photosynthetic and mineral nutrition functions, strong accumulation of free amino acids, overexpression of enzymes and transporters related to sugars, amino acids and fatty acid catabolism, as well as induction of some autophagy-related and biotic stress genes. Such changes were reminiscent of these reported for variegated leaves and appeared to be symptomatic of a carbon starvation response. Rather than decisive metabolic innovations, we suggest that the evolution towards mycoheterotrophy in orchids is more likely to be reliant on the versatility of plant metabolism and an ability to exploit fungal organic resources, especially amino acids, to replace missing photosynthates