Using Expert Models in Human Reliability Analysis - A Dependence Assessment Method Based on Fuzzy Logic

International audienceIn human reliability analysis (HRA), dependence analysis refers to assessing the influence of the failure of the operators to perform one task on the failure probabilities of subsequent tasks. A commonly used approach is the technique for human error rate prediction (THERP). The assessment of the dependence level in THERP is a highly subjective judgment based on general rules for the influence of five main factors. A frequently used alternative method extends the THERP model with decision trees. Such trees should increase the repeatability of the assessments but they simplify the relationships among the factors and the dependence level. Moreover, the basis for these simplifications and the resulting tree is difficult to trace. The aim of this work is a method for dependence assessment in HRA that captures the rules used by experts to assess dependence levels and incorporates this knowledge into an algorithm and software tool to be used by HRA analysts. A fuzzy expert system (FES) underlies the method. The method and the associated expert elicitation process are demonstrated with a working model. The expert rules are elicited systematically and converted into a traceable, explicit, and computable model. Anchor situations are provided as guidance for the HRA analyst's judgment of the input factors. The expert model and the FES-based dependence assessment method make the expert rules accessible to the analyst in a usable and repeatable way, with an explicit and traceable basis

Home, dirty home: effect of old nest material on nest-site selection and breeding performance in a cavity-nesting raptor

The quality of a breeding site may have major fitness consequences. A fundamental step to understanding the process of nest-site selection is the identification of the information individuals use to choose high-quality nest sites. For secondary cavity-nesting bird species that do not add nest lining material, organic remains (faeces, pellets) accumulated inside nest cavities during previous breeding events may be a cue for high-quality nest-sites, as they contain information about past successful breeding and may improve thermal insulation of eggs during incubation. However, cavities in which breeding was successful might also contain more nest-dwelling ectoparasites than unoccupied cavities, offering an incentive for prospective parents to avoid them. We exposed breeding cavity-nesting lesser kestrels (Falco naumanni) to nestbox dyads consisting of a dirty (with a thick layer of organic substrate) and a clean nestbox (without organic material). Dirty nestboxes were strongly preferred, being occupied earlier and more frequently than clean ones. Hatching success in dirty nestboxes was significantly higher than in clean ones, suggesting a positive effect of organic nest material on incubation efficiency, while nestbox dirtiness did not significantly affect clutch and brood size. Nestlings from dirty nestboxes had significantly higher ectoparasite load than those from clean nestboxes soon after egg hatching, but this difference was not evident a few days later. Nest substrate did not significantly affect nestling growth. We concluded that nest substrate is a key driver of nest-site choice in lesser kestrels, although the adaptive value of such a strong preference appears elusive and may be context-dependent

Clock gene polymorphism and scheduling of migration : a geolocator study of the barn swallow Hirundo rustica

Circannual rhythms often rely on endogenous seasonal photoperiodic timers involving 'clock' genes, and Clock gene polymorphism has been associated to variation in phenology in some bird species. In the long-distance migratory barn swallow Hirundo rustica, individuals bearing the rare Clock allele with the largest number of C-terminal polyglutamine repeats found in this species (Q8) show a delayed reproduction and moult later. We explored the association between Clock polymorphism and migration scheduling, as gauged by light-level geolocators, in two barn swallow populations (Switzerland; Po Plain, Italy). Genetic polymorphism was low: 91% of the 64 individuals tracked year-round were Q7/Q7 homozygotes. We compared the phenology of the rare genotypes with the phenotypic distribution of Q7/Q7 homozygotes within each population. In Switzerland, compared to Q7/Q7, two Q6/Q7 males departed earlier from the wintering grounds and arrived earlier to their colony in spring, while a single Q7/Q8 female was delayed for both phenophases. On the other hand, in the Po Plain, three Q6/Q7 individuals had a similar phenology compared to Q7/Q7. The Swiss data are suggestive for a role of genetic polymorphism at a candidate phenological gene in shaping migration traits, and support the idea that Clock polymorphism underlies phenological variation in birds

A comparison of two Monte Carlo simulation approaches for the estimation of importance measures in multi-state systems

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A comparison of two Monte Carlo simulation approaches for the estimation of importance measures in multi-state systems

(abstract only