Cerebral venous sinus thrombosis in HIV-infected patients: Report of 2 cases

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An Application Of Extreme Value Theory In Modelling Electricity Production In Kenya

Extreme Value Theory provides a well-established statistical model for the computation of extreme risk measure which includes, Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall. In this paper we apply Univariate Extreme Value Theory to model extreme production for the Kenyan Electricity. We demonstrate that Extreme value theory can successfully be applied in predicting future Value at Risk to the electricity production. This will provide solutions to the problems faced by producers and consumers in the electricity market. In this paper Value at Risk is estimated using a Peak Over Threshold method. This technique models the distribution of exceedances over a high threshold rather than the individual observations. It concentrates on observation that exceeds central limits, focusing on the tail of the distribution. Extreme value theory is also applied to compute the tail risk measures at given confidence interval.  An overview of the Extreme Value Theory and Peaks Over Threshold Method are also given. These methods are applied to electricity production in Kenya and the data exhibit some trend and modeled as a Gumbel distribution since the shape parameter is not significantly different from zero. Keywords: Risk Modeling, Value at Risk, Extreme Value Theory

Registrar wellness in Botswana: Measuring burnout and identifying ways to improve wellness

Background. Burnout during registrar training is high, especially in resource-limited settings where stressors are intensified. Burnout leads to decreased quality of life for doctors, poor job and patient satisfaction, and difficulty retaining doctors.Objectives. Primary: to measure burnout among registrars working at Princess Marina Hospital in Gaborone, Botswana. Secondary: to determine factors contributing to burnout and identify potential wellness interventions.Methods. The validated Maslach Burnout Inventory was used to measure the degree of emotional exhaustion, depersonalisation and personal accomplishment. Work-related difficulties and potential wellness interventions were explored through multiple-choice and open-ended questions.Results. Of 40 eligible registrars, 20 (50%) completed the survey. High levels of burnout were reported for emotional exhaustion in 65% (13/20), depersonalisation in 45% (9/20), and personal accomplishment in 35% (7/20) of registrars. A high degree of burnout was reported by 75% (15/20) of registrars in one or more domains. In the previous 7 days, registrars worked an average of 77 hours, took 1.5 overnight calls, slept 5.7 hours per night, and 53% (10/19) had ≥1 of their patients die. Five (25%) registrars considered leaving Botswana to work in another country, which correlated with those with the highest degree of burnout. The most common frustrations included insufficient salary and limited medical resources. Suggested interventions included improved mentorship and wellness lectures.Conclusions. There is a high degree of burnout, especially emotional exhaustion, among registrars. Encouragingly, most registrars have a desire to work in Botswana after training. Future research on improving registrar wellness in low-resource settings is urgently needed

Gene expression regulation in the plant growth promoting Bacillus atrophaeus UCMB-5137 stimulated by maize root exudates

Despite successful use of Plant Growth Promoting Rhizobacteria (PGPR) in agriculture, little is known about specific mechanisms of gene regulation facilitating the effective communication between bacteria and plants during plant colonization. Active PGPR strain B. atrophaeus UCMB-5137 was studied in this research. RNA sequencing profiles were generated in experiments where root exudate stimulations were used to mimic interactions between bacteria and plants. It was found that the gene regulation in B. atrophaeus UCMB-5137 in response to the root exudate stimuli differed from the reported gene regulation at similar conditions in B. amyloliquefaciens FZB42, which was considered as a paradigm PGPR. This difference was explained by hypersensitivity of UCMB-5137 to the root exudate stimuli impelling it to a sessile root colonization behavior through the CcpA-CodY-AbrB regulation. It was found that the transcriptional factor DegU also could play an important role in gene regulations during plant colonization. A significant stress caused by the root exudates on in vitro cultivated B. atrophaeus UCMB-5137 was noticed and discussed. Multiple cases of conflicted gene regulations showed scantiness of our knowledge on the regulatory network in Bacillus. Some of these conflicted regulations could be explained by interference of non-coding RNA (ncRNA). Search through differential expressed intergenic regions revealed 49 putative loci of ncRNA regulated by the root exudate stimuli. Possible target mRNA were predicted and a general regulatory network of B. atrophaeus UCMB-5137 genome was designed.This study was funded by the PhD fellowship grant provided by the Southern African Biochemistry and Informatics for Natural Products (SABINA, www.sabina-africa.org/), and the National Research Foundation of South Africa (NRF) grants 73983, 86941 and 93664 for travels and collaboration. Sequencing was funded by the Genomics Research Institute (GRI) at the University of Pretoria.http://www.elsevier.com/locate/gene2017-09-30hb2016BiochemistryMicrobiology and Plant Patholog

Presumptive treatment of fever cases as malaria: help or hindrance for malaria control?

BACKGROUND: Malaria incidence has been reported to be falling in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. This fall appears to have started before the widespread introduction of insecticide-treated nets. In the new era of calls to eliminate and eradicate malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, exploring possible causes for this fall seem pertinent. PRESENTATION OF THE HYPOTHESIS: The authors explore an argument that presumptive treatment of fever cases as malaria may have played a role in reducing transmission of malaria by the prophylactic effect of antimalarials and their widespread use. This strategy, which is already in practise is termed Opportunistic Presumptive Treatment (OPT). TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS: Further comparison of epidemiological indicators between areas with OPT and more targeted treatment is required. If data suggest a benefit of OPT, combining long acting antimalarials that have an anti-gametocyticidal activity component plus using high levels of vector control measures may reduce transmission, prevent resistant strains spreading and be easily implemented. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS: OPT is practised widely by presumptive treatment of fever in health facilities and home management of fever. Improving diagnosis using rapid diagnostic tests and thus reducing the number of doses of antimalarials given may have counter intuitive effects on transmission in the context of elimination of malaria in high to moderate transmission settings

Using research to influence sexual and reproductive health practice and implementation in Sub-Saharan Africa: a case-study analysis

Background Research institutions and donor organizations are giving growing attention to how research evidence is communicated to influence policy. In the area of sexual and reproductive health (SRH) and HIV there is less weight given to understanding how evidence is successfully translated into practice. Policy issues in SRH can be controversial, influenced by political factors and shaped by context such as religion, ethnicity, gender and sexuality. Methods The case-studies presented in this paper analyse findings from SRH/HIV research programmes in sub-Saharan Africa: 1) Maternal syphilis screening in Ghana, 2) Legislative change for sexual violence survivors In Ghana, 3) Male circumcision policy in South Africa, and 4) Male circumcision policy in Tanzania. Our analysis draws on two frameworks, Sumner et al’s synthesis approach and Nutley’s research use continuum. Results The analysis emphasises the relationships and communications involved in using research to influence policy and practice and recognises a distinction whereby practice is not necessarily influenced as a result of policy change – especially in SRH – where there are complex interactions between policy actors. Conclusion Both frameworks demonstrate how policy networks, partnership and advocacy are critical in shaping the extent to which research is used and the importance of on-going and continuous links between a range of actors to maximize research impact on policy uptake and implementation. The case-studies illustrate the importance of long-term engagement between researchers and policy makers and how to use evidence to develop policies which are sensitive to context: political, cultural and practical

Acceptability of medical male circumcision in the traditionally circumcising communities in Northern Tanzania

Data from traditionally circumcising communities show that non-circumcised males and those circumcised in the medical settings are stigmatised. This is because traditional circumcision embodies local notions of bravery as anaesthetics are not used. This study was conducted to assess the acceptability of safe medical circumcision before the onset of sexual activity for HIV infection risk reduction in a traditionally circumcising community in Tanzania. A cross-sectional study was conducted among males and females aged 18-44 years in traditionally circumcising communities of Tarime District in Mara Region, North-eastern Tanzania. A face-to-face questionnaire was administered to females to collect information on the attitudes of women towards circumcision and the preferred age for circumcision. A similar questionnaire was administered to males to collect information on socio-demographic, preferred age for circumcision, factors influencing circumcision, client satisfaction, complications and beliefs surrounding the practice. Results were available for 170 males and 189 females. Of the males, 168 (98.8%) were circumcised and 61 (36.3%) of those circumcised had the procedure done in the medical setting. Of those interviewed, 165 (97.1%) males and 179 (94.7%) females supported medical male circumcision for their sons. Of these, 107 (64.8%) males and 130 (72.6%) females preferred prepubertal medical male circumcision (12 years or less). Preference for prepubertal circumcision was significantly associated with non-Kurya ethnic group, circumcision in the medical setting and residence in urban areas for males in the adjusted analysis. For females, preference for prepubertal circumcision was significantly associated non-Kurya ethnic group and being born in urban areas in the adjusted analysis. There is a shift of preference from traditional male circumcision to medical male circumcision in this traditionally circumcising population. However, this preference has not changed the circumcision practices in the communities because of the community social pressure. Male circumcision national program should take advantage of this preference of medical male circumcision by introducing safe and affordable circumcision services and mobilising communities in a culturally sensitive manner to take up circumcision services

Effect of Improved access to Antiretroviral Therapy on clinical characteristics of patients enrolled in the HIV care and treatment clinic, at Muhimbili National Hospital (MNH), Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

\ud Sub-Saharan Africa has been severely affected by the HIV and AIDS pandemic. Global efforts at improving care and treatment has included scaling up use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). In Tanzania, HIV care and treatment program, including the provision of free ART started in 2004 with a pilot program at Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam. This study describes the socio-demographic and clinical features of patients enrolled at the care and treatment clinic at MNH, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. A cross-sectional study looking at baseline characteristics of patients enrolled at the HIV clinic at MNH between June 2004-Dec 2005 compared to those enrolled between 2006 and September 2008. Of all enrolled patients, 2408 (58.5%) were used for analysis. More females than males were attending the clinic. Their baseline median CD4 cell count was low (136 cells/microl) with 65.7% having below 200 cells/microl. Females had higher CD4 cell counts (150 cells/microl) than males (109 cells/microl) p < 0.001). The most common presenting features were skin rash and/or itching (51.6%); progressive weight loss (32.7%) and fever (23.4). Patients enrolled earlier at the clinic (2004-5) were significantly more symptomatic and had significantly lower CD4 cell count (127 cells/microl) compared to CD4 of 167 cells/microl in those seen later (2006-8) (p < 0.001). Patients enrolled to the MNH HIV clinic were predominantly females, and presented with advanced immune-deficiency. Improved access to HIV care and treatment services seems to be associated with patients' early presentation to the clinics in the course of HIV disease.\u

A pharmacy too far? Equity and spatial distribution of outcomes in the delivery of subsidized artemisinin-based combination therapies through private drug shops

BACKGROUND: Millions of individuals with malaria-like fevers purchase drugs from private retailers, but artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs), the only effective treatment in regions with high levels of resistance to older drugs, are rarely obtained through these outlets due to their relatively high cost. To encourage scale up of ACTs, the Affordable Medicines Facility--malaria is being launched to subsidize their price. The Government of Tanzania and the Clinton Foundation piloted this subsidized distribution model in two Tanzanian districts to examine concerns about whether the intervention will successfully reach poor, rural communities. METHODS: Stocking of ACTs and other antimalarial drugs in all retail shops was observed at baseline and in four subsequent surveys over 15 months. Exit interviews were conducted with antimalarial drug customers during each survey period. All shops and facilities were georeferenced, and variables related to population density and proximity to distribution hubs, roads, and other facilities were calculated. To understand the equity of impact, shops stocking ACTs and consumers buying them were compared to those that did not, according to geographic and socioeconomic variables. Patterning in ACT stocking and sales was evaluated against that of other common antimalarials to identify factors that may have impacted access. Qualitative data were used to assess motivations underlying stocking, distribution, and buying disparities. RESULTS: Results indicated that although total ACT purchases rose from negligible levels to nearly half of total antimalarial sales over the course of the pilot, considerable geographic variation in stocking and sales persisted and was related to a variety of socio-spatial factors; ACTs were stocked more often in shops located closer to district towns (p<0.01) and major roads (p<0.01) and frequented by individuals of higher socioeconomic status (p<0.01). However, other antimalarial drugs displayed similar patterning, indicating the existence of underlying disparities in access to antimalarial drugs in general in these districts. CONCLUSIONS: As this subsidy model is scaled up across multiple countries, these results confirm the potential for increased ACT usage but suggest that additional efforts to increase access in remote areas will be needed for the scale-up to have equitable impact. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN39125414

Rationale, design and methodology of APPROACH-IS II: International study of patient-reported outcomes and frailty phenotyping in adults with congenital heart disease.

In recent years, patient-reported outcomes (PROs) have received increasing prominence in cardiovascular research and clinical care. An understanding of the variability and global experience of PROs in adults with congenital heart disease (CHD), however, is still lacking. Moreover, information on epidemiological characteristics and the frailty phenotype of older adults with CHD is minimal. The APPROACH-IS II study was established to address these knowledge gaps. This paper presents the design and methodology of APPROACH-IS II. APPROACH-IS II is a cross-sectional global multicentric study that includes Part 1 (assessing PROs) and Part 2 (investigating the frailty phenotype of older adults). With 53 participating centers, located in 32 countries across six continents, the aim is to enroll 8000 patients with CHD. In Part 1, self-report surveys are used to collect data on PROs (e.g., quality of life, perceived health, depressive symptoms, autonomy support), and explanatory variables (e.g., social support, stigma, illness identity, empowerment). In Part 2, the cognitive functioning and frailty phenotype of older adults are measured using validated assessments. APPROACH-IS II will generate a rich dataset representing the international experience of individuals in adult CHD care. The results of this project will provide a global view of PROs and the frailty phenotype of adults with CHD and will thereby address important knowledge gaps. Undoubtedly, the project will contribute to the overarching aim of improving optimal living and care provision for adults with CHD