Downscaling extremes: A comparison of extreme value distributions in point-source and gridded precipitation data

There is substantial empirical and climatological evidence that precipitation extremes have become more extreme during the twentieth century, and that this trend is likely to continue as global warming becomes more intense. However, understanding these issues is limited by a fundamental issue of spatial scaling: most evidence of past trends comes from rain gauge data, whereas trends into the future are produced by climate models, which rely on gridded aggregates. To study this further, we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to the right tail of the distribution of both rain gauge and gridded events. The results of this modeling exercise confirm that return values computed from rain gauge data are typically higher than those computed from gridded data; however, the size of the difference is somewhat surprising, with the rain gauge data exhibiting return values sometimes two or three times that of the gridded data. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a family of regression relationships between the two sets of return values that also take spatial variations into account. Based on these results, we now believe it is possible to project future changes in precipitation extremes at the point-location level based on results from climate models.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/09-AOAS287 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Regional probabilities of precipitation change: A Bayesian analysis of multimodel simulations

Tebaldi et al. [2005] present a Bayesian approach to determining probability distribution functions (PDFs) of temperature change at regional scales, from the output of a multi-model ensemble, run under the same scenario of future anthropogenic emissions. The main characteristic of the method is the formalization of the two criteria of bias and convergence that the REA method [Giorgi and Mearns, 2002] first quantified as a way of assessing model reliability. Thus, the General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) of the ensemble are combined in a way that accounts for their performance with respect to current climate and a measure of each model's agreement with the majority of the ensemble. We apply the Bayesian model to a set of transient experiments under two SRES scenarios. We focus on predictions of precipitation change, for land regions of subcontinental size. We highlight differences in the PDFs of precipitation change derived in regions where models find easy agreement, and perform well in simulating present day precipitation, compared to regions where models have large biases, and/or their future projections disagree. We compare results from the two scenarios, thus assessing the consequences of the two alternative hypotheses, and present summaries based on their averaging

An early Portuguese mariner's astrolabe from the Sodré Wreck‐site, Al Hallaniyah, Oman

A unique leaded‐gunmetal disc decorated with iconic Portuguese markings was recovered in 2014 during archaeological excavations at the Sodré shipwreck site in Al Hallaniyah, Oman. Initially the identity and function of the disc was unknown, although it did possess characteristics suggesting it could be an astrolabe. Laser imaging of the disc post conservation revealed regular scale marks on the limb of its upper right quadrant. Accurate digital measurements of the marks show them to be graded at close to 5‐degree intervals, thus confirming the identity of the disc as a mariner's astrolabe and the earliest known example discovered to date

Q fever through consumption of unpasteurised milk and milk products – a risk profile and exposure assessment

Q fever is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Coxiella burnetii which is endemic in cattle, sheep and goats in much of the world, including the United Kingdom (UK). There is some epidemiological evidence that a small proportion of cases in the developed world may arise from consumption of unpasteurised milk with less evidence for milk products such as cheese. Long maturation at low pH may give some inactivation in hard cheese, and viable C. burnetii are rarely detected in unpasteurised cheese compared to unpasteurised milk. Simulations presented here predict that the probability of exposure per person to one or more C. burnetii through the daily cumulative consumption of raw milk in the UK is 04203. For those positive exposures, the average level of exposure predicted is high at 1266 guinea pig intraperitoneal infectious dose 50% units (GP_IP_ID50) per person per day. However, in the absence of human dose–response data, the case is made that the GP_IP_ID50 unit represents a very low risk through the oral route. The available evidence suggests that the risks from C. burnetii through consumption of unpasteurised milk and milk products (including cheese) are not negligible but they are lower in comparison to transmission via inhalation of aerosols from parturient products and livestock contact

Safety intelligence : An exploration of senior managers' characteristics

Peer reviewedPostprin

CLIL challenges in designing learning experiences

This chapter explores issues encountered by beginning CLIL teachers in making sense of and applying guidelines aimed at teachers when designing learning experiences for CLIL. After summarising current guidelines, the authors draw on Coyle et al.’s (2010) 4Cs model, an additional C for collaboration and developments conceptualising integration and disciplinary literacy, to reflect on their own experiences as CLIL teacher educators in The Netherlands. They discuss how principles behind CLIL can be made relatable to both content and language teachers. They argue that, in taking a holistic, literacy-based view of subject teaching, teachers from both linguistic and non-linguistic disciplines are positioned as experts in all aspects of their subject, and can enter into collaboration on an equal footing with each other. Challenges remain, including a need for cross-disciplinary collaboration between language specialist and subject specialist teacher educators.Teaching and Teacher Learning (ICLON

Retinotectal circuitry of larval zebrafish is adapted to detection and pursuit of prey

Retinal axon projections form a map of the visual environment in the tectum. A zebrafish larva typically detects a prey object in its peripheral visual field. As it turns and swims towards the prey, the stimulus enters the central, binocular area, and seemingly expands in size. By volumetric calcium imaging, we show that posterior tectal neurons, which serve to detect prey at a distance, tend to respond to small objects and intrinsically compute their direction of movement. Neurons in anterior tectum, where the prey image is represented shortly before the capture strike, are tuned to larger object sizes and are frequently not direction-selective, indicating that mainly interocular comparisons serve to compute an object's movement at close range. The tectal feature map originates from a linear combination of diverse, functionally specialized, lamina-specific, and topographically ordered retinal ganglion cell synaptic inputs. We conclude that local cell-type composition and connectivity across the tectum are adapted to the processing of locationdependent, behaviorally relevant object features

1897 Ruby Yearbook

A digitized copy of the 1897 Ruby, the Ursinus College yearbook.https://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/ruby/1003/thumbnail.jp

Een vak leren op de vleugels van taal: dubbelinterview over de didactiek van tweetalig onderwijs

Teaching and Teacher Learning (ICLON