Modelling distributed lag effects in mortality and air pollution studies: the case of Santiago

Most of the epidemiological literature on air pollution and mortality deals only with single or dual pollutant models whose results are hard to interpret and of questionable value from the policy perspective. In addition, much of the existing literature deals only with the very short-term effects of air pollution whereas policy makers need to know when, whether and to what extent pollution-induced increases in mortality counts are reversed. This involves modelling the infinite distributed lag effects of air pollution. Borrowing from econometrics this paper presents a method by which the infinite distributed lag effects can be estimated parsimoniously but plausibly estimated. The paper presents a time series study into the relationship between ambient levels of air pollution and daily mortality counts for Santiago employing this technique which confirms that the infinite lag effects are highly significant. It is also shown that day to day variations in NO2 concentrations and in the concentrations of both fine and coarse particulates are associated with short-term variations in death rates. These findings are made in the context of a model that simultaneously includes six different pollutants. Evidence is found pointing to the operation of a very short term harvesting effect

The Contradictions of First-Year Teaching: Why New Teachers Don\u27t Want to Return to the Classroom

Teachers are leaving the profession at an alarming rate. Beginning teachers are one of the largest groups of teachers to leave the profession every year. This paper examines the common internal and external conflicts that first-year teachers struggle with in order to create their teaching identity and how that affects their retention. Through the analysis of educational experts and their evidence-based research, the conflicts of new teachers have been collected and analyzed to determine the reasons why new teachers are not staying in the profession. Conclusions are drawn regarding how education teachers, district/school officials, and political officials can make changes so that first-year teachers will remain in the teaching profession

The effect of a planet on the dust distribution in a 3D protoplanetary disk

Aims: We investigate the behaviour of dust in protoplanetary disks under the action of gas drag in the presence of a planet. Our goal is twofold: to determine the spatial distribution of dust depending on grain size and planet mass, and therefore to provide a framework for interpretation of coming observations and future studies of planetesimal growth. Method: We numerically model the evolution of dust in a protoplanetary disk using a two-fluid (gas + dust) Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) code, which is non-self-gravitating and locally isothermal. The code follows the three dimensional distribution of dust in a protoplanetary disk as it interacts with the gas via aerodynamic drag. In this work, we present the evolution of a minimum mass solar nebula (MMSN) disk comprising 1% dust by mass in the presence of an embedded planet. We run a series of simulations which vary the grain size and planetary mass to see how they affect the resulting disk structure. Results: We find that gap formation is much more rapid and striking in the dust layer than in the gaseous disk and that a system with a given stellar, disk and planetary mass will have a completely different appearance depending on the grain size. For low mass planets in our MMSN disk, a gap can open in the dust disk while not in the gas disk. We also note that dust accumulates at the external edge of the planetary gap and speculate that the presence of a planet in the disk may enhance the formation of a second planet by facilitating the growth of planetesimals in this high density region.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Uneconomical Diagnosis of Cladograms: Comments on Wheeler and Nixon's Method for Sankoff Optimization

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74972/1/j.1096-0031.1997.tb00249.x.pd

Upstream cyclone influence on the predictability of block onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region

Atmospheric blocking has been shown to be a phenomenon that models struggle to predict accurately, particularly the onset of a blocked state following a more zonal flow. This struggle is, in part, due to the lack of a complete dynamical theory for block onset and maintenance. Here, we evaluate the impact cyclone representation had on the forecast of block onset in two case studies from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment field campaign and the 20 most unpredictable block onsets over the Euro-Atlantic region in medium-range forecasts from the ECMWF. The six-day forecast of block onset in the case studies is sensitive to changes in the forecast location and intensity of upstream cyclones (one cyclone for one case and two for the other case) in the days preceding the onset. Ensemble sensitivity analysis reveals that this is often the case in unpredictable block onset cases: a one-standard deviation change in 1000-hPa geopotential height near an upstream cyclone, or 320-K potential vorticity near the tropopause, two or three days prior to block onset is associated with more than a 10% change in block area on the analyzed onset day in 17 of the 20 onset cases. These results imply that improvement in the forecasts of upstream cyclone location and intensity may help improve block onset forecasts

Active video games: An opportunity for enhanced learning and positive health effects?

Active video games are an emerging genre of electronic games that provide engaging exercise experiences by combining physical exertion with interactive game play. As such they have attracted increased interest from health promotion professionals to reduce sedentary behavior, increase physical activity, and improve health outcomes such as body composition. However their potential for enhancing the educational experience has not been extensively explored. This paper provides a brief overview of active video game research to date and outlines opportunities for future research. Specifically, we highlight the need to develop a conceptual framework to better understand the determinants, mediators, moderators, and consequences of active video gaming and integrate learning and health outcomes. We propose that active video games can be a key part of a wider “digital” supportive environment where education and health researchers and professionals work with, rather than against, video game technologies to promote learning and health

Global phylogeography and evolution of chelonid fibropapilloma-associated herpesvirus

A global phylogeny for chelonid fibropapilloma-associated herpesvirus (CFPHV), the most likely aetiological agent of fibropapillomatosis (FP) in sea turtles, was inferred, using dated sequences, through Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis and used to estimate the virus evolutionary rate independent of the evolution of the host, and to resolve the phylogenetic positions of new haplotypes from Puerto Rico and the Gulf of Guinea. Four phylogeographical groups were identified: eastern Pacific, western Atlantic/eastern Caribbean, mid-west Pacific and Atlantic. The latter comprises the Gulf of Guinea and Puerto Rico, suggesting recent virus gene flow between these two regions. One virus haplotype from Florida remained elusive, representing either an independent lineage sharing a common ancestor with all other identified virus variants or an Atlantic representative of the lineage giving rise to the eastern Pacific group. The virus evolutionary rate ranged from 1.62x10(-4) to 2.22x10(-4) substitutions per site per year, which is much faster than what is expected for a herpesvirus. The mean time for the most recent common ancestor of the modern virus variants was estimated at 192.90-429.71 years ago, which, although more recent than previous estimates, still supports an interpretation that the global FP pandemic is not the result of a recent acquisition of a virulence mutation(s). The phylogeographical pattern obtained seems partially to reflect sea turtle movements, whereas altered environments appear to be implicated in current FP outbreaks and in the modern evolutionary history of CFPHV.DNER-PR; US NMFS (NMFS-NOAA) [NA08NMF4720436]; US-Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS); Sociedad Chelonia; WIDECAST; US Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA); Lisbon Oceanarium, Portugal; Interdisciplinary Research Center for Animal Health of the Faculty of Veterinary Medicine of the Technical University of Lisbon (FMV/TUL)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Evaluating nuclear proteincoding genes for phylogenetic utility in beetles.

a b s t r a c t Although nuclear protein-coding genes have proven broadly useful for phylogenetic inference, relatively few such genes are regularly employed in studies of Coleoptera, the most diverse insect order. We increase the number of loci available for beetle systematics by developing protocols for three genes previously unused in beetles (alpha-spectrin, RNA polymerase II and topoisomerase I) and by refining protocols for five genes already in use (arginine kinase, CAD, enolase, PEPCK and wingless). We evaluate the phylogenetic performance of each gene in a Bayesian framework against a presumably known test phylogeny. The test phylogeny covers 31 beetle specimens and two outgroup taxa of varying age, including three of the four extant beetle suborders and a denser sampling in Adephaga and in the carabid genus Bembidion. All eight genes perform well for Cenozoic divergences and accurately separate closely related species within Bembidion, but individual genes differ markedly in accuracy over the older Mesozoic and Permian divergences. The concatenated data reconstruct the test phylogeny with high support in both Bayesian and parsimony analyses, indicating that combining data from multiple nuclear loci will be a fruitful approach for assembling the beetle tree of life