1,295 research outputs found

    Truth, Epidemiology, and General Causation

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    Evidence-based mapping of design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis: a systematic review and evidence synthesis

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    BACKGROUND: Assessment of design heterogeneity conducted prior to meta-analysis is infrequently reported; it is often presented post hoc to explain statistical heterogeneity. However, design heterogeneity determines the mix of included studies and how they are analyzed in a meta-analysis, which in turn can importantly influence the results. The goal of this work is to introduce ways to improve the assessment and reporting of design heterogeneity prior to statistical summarization of epidemiologic studies. METHODS: In this paper, we use an assessment of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) as an example to show how a technique called ‘evidence mapping’ can be used to organize studies and evaluate design heterogeneity prior to meta-analysis.. Employing a systematic and reproducible approach, we evaluated the following elements across 11 selected cohort studies: variation in definitions of SSB, T2D, and co-variables, design features and population characteristics associated with specific definitions of SSB, and diversity in modeling strategies. RESULTS: Evidence mapping strategies effectively organized complex data and clearly depicted design heterogeneity. For example, across 11 studies of SSB and T2D, 7 measured diet only once (with 7 to 16 years of disease follow-up), 5 included primarily low SSB consumers, and 3 defined the study variable (SSB) as consumption of either sugar or artificially-sweetened beverages. This exercise also identified diversity in analysis strategies, such as adjustment for 11 to 17 co-variables and a large degree of fluctuation in SSB-T2D risk estimates depending on variables selected for multivariable models (2 to 95% change in the risk estimate from the age-adjusted model). CONCLUSIONS: Meta-analysis seeks to understand heterogeneity in addition to computing a summary risk estimate. This strategy effectively documents design heterogeneity, thus improving the practice of meta-analysis by aiding in: 1) protocol and analysis planning, 2) transparent reporting of differences in study designs, and 3) interpretation of pooled estimates. We recommend expanding the practice of meta-analysis reporting to include a table that summarizes design heterogeneity. This would provide readers with more evidence to interpret the summary risk estimates

    The engagement of further and higher education with the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games

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    Podium commissioned the Centre for Sport, Physical Education & Activity Research (SPEAR) at Canterbury Christ Church University to carry out research to capture the engagement of the further and higher education sectors and related stakeholders with the past, current and future opportunities presented by the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. The full report was released on 15 March 2011 to mark 500 days to go until the start of London 2012

    Two Surgeon General's reports on smoking and cancer: a historical investigation of the practice of causal inference

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    BACKGROUND: The epidemiologic literature is replete with conceptual discussions about causal inference, but little is known about how the causal criteria are applied in public health practice. The criteria for causal inference in use today by epidemiologists have been shaped substantially by their use over time in reports of the U.S. Surgeon General on Smoking and Health. METHODS: We reviewed two classic reports on smoking and health from expert committees convened by the US Surgeon General, in 1964 and 1982, in order to evaluate and contrast how the committees applied causal criteria to the available evidence for the different cancer sites at different time periods. We focus on the evidence for four cancer sites in particular that received detailed reviews in the reports: lung, larynx, esophagus and bladder. RESULTS: We found that strength of association and coherence (especially dose-response, biological plausibility and epidemiologic sense) appeared to carry the most weight; consistency carried less weight, and temporality and specificity were apparently not applied at all in some cases. No causal claim was made for associations with a summary odds ratio of less than 3.0. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the causal criteria as described in textbooks and the Surgeon General reports can have variable interpretations and applications in practice. While the authors of these reports may have considered evidential factors that they did not explicitly cite, such lack of transparency of methods undermines the purpose of the causal criteria to promote objective, evidence-based decision making. Further empirical study and critical examination of the process by which causal conclusions are reached can play an important role in advancing the practice of epidemiology by helping public health scientists to better understand the practice of causal inference
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