A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan

From social contract to 'social contrick' : the depoliticisation of economic policy-making under Harold Wilson, 1974–75

The 1974-79 Labour Governments were elected on the basis of an agreement with the TUC promising a redistribution of income and wealth known as the Social Contract. However, the Government immediately began to marginalise these commitments in favour of preferences for incomes policy and public expenditure cuts, which has led the Social Contract to be described as the 'Social Contrick'. These changes were legitimised through a process of depoliticisation, and using an Open Marxist framework and evidence from the National Archives, the paper will show that the Treasury's exchange rate strategy and the need to secure external finance placed issues of confidence at the centre of political debate, allowing the Government to argue there was no alternative to the introduction of incomes policy and the reduction of public expenditure

Immunization coverage and risk factors for failure to immunize within the Expanded Programme on Immunization in Kenya after introduction of new Haemophilus influenzae type b and hepatitis b virus antigens

Background: Kenya introduced a pentavalent vaccine including the DTP, Haemophilus influenzae type b and hepatitis b virus antigens in Nov 2001 and strengthened immunization services. We estimated immunization coverage before and after introduction, timeliness of vaccination and risk factors for failure to immunize in Kilifi district, Kenya. Methods: In Nov 2002 we performed WHO cluster-sample surveys of > 200 children scheduled for vaccination before or after introduction of pentavalent vaccine. In Mar 2004 we conducted a simple random sample (SRS) survey of 204 children aged 9 - 23 months. Coverage was estimated by inverse Kaplan-Meier survival analysis of vaccine- card and mothers' recall data and corroborated by reviewing administrative records from national and provincial vaccine stores. The contribution to timely immunization of distance from clinic, seasonal rainfall, mother's age, and family size was estimated by a proportional hazards model. Results: Immunization coverage for three DTP and pentavalent doses was 100% before and 91% after pentavalent vaccine introduction, respectively. By SRS survey, coverage was 88% for three pentavalent doses. The median age at first, second and third vaccine dose was 8, 13 and 18 weeks. Vials dispatched to Kilifi District during 2001 - 2003 would provide three immunizations for 92% of the birth cohort. Immunization rate ratios were reduced with every kilometre of distance from home to vaccine clinic (HR 0.95, CI 0.91 - 1.00), rainy seasons ( HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.61 - 0.89) and family size, increasing progressively up to 4 children ( HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41 - 0.73). Conclusion: Vaccine coverage was high before and after introduction of pentavalent vaccine, but most doses were given late. Coverage is limited by seasonal factors and family siz

Development of parent- and teacher-reported emotional and behavioural problems in young people with intellectual disabilities: Does level of ID matter?

This study described similarities and differences in the 5-year stability and change of problem behaviour between youths attending schools for children with mild to borderline (MiID) versus moderate intellectual disabilities (MoID). A two-wave multiple-birth-cohort sample of 6 to 18-year-old was assessed twice across a 5-year interval using the Developmental Behaviour Checklist Primary Carer version (n = 718) and Teacher version (n = 313). For most types of problem behaviour youths with MiID and MoID showed similar levels of stability of individual differences, persistence and onset of psychopathology. Whenever differences were found, youths with MoID showed the highest level of stability, persistence and onset across informants. Mean levels of parent-reported, but not teacher-reported, problem behaviour, regardless of level of intellectual disability, decreased during the 5-year follow-up period. Youths with MoID and MiID are at risk for persistent psychopathology to a similar degree. Different informants showed to have a different evaluation of the level and the amount of change of problem behaviour, and should be considered complementary in the diagnostic process. © 2007 BILD Publications

Reflections on a 'virtual' practice development unit: changing practice through identity development

Aims. This paper draws together the personal thoughts and critical reflections of key people involved in the establishment of a ‘virtual’ practice development unit of clinical nurse specialists in the south of England. Background. This practice development unit is ‘virtual’ in that it is not constrained by physical or specialty boundaries. It became the first group of Trust-wide clinical nurse specialists to be accredited in the UK as a practice development unit in 2004. Design and methods. The local university was asked to facilitate the accreditation process via 11 two-hour audio-recorded learning sessions. Critical reflections from practice development unit members, leaders and university staff were written 12 months after successful accreditation, and the framework of their content analysed. Findings and discussion. Practice development was seen as a way for the clinical nurse specialists to realize their potential for improving patient care by transforming care practice in a collaborative, interprofessional and evolutionary manner. The practice development unit provided a means for these nurses to analyse their role and function within the Trust. Roberts’ identity development model for nursing serves as a useful theoretical underpinning for the reflections contained in this paper. Conclusions. These narratives provide another example of nurses making the effort to shape and contribute to patient care through organizational redesign. This group of nurses began to realize that the structure of the practice development unit process provided them with the means to analyse their role and function within the organization and, as they reflected on this structure, their behaviour began to change. Relevance to clinical practice. Evidence from these reflections supports the view that practice development unit participants have secured a positive and professional identity and are, therefore, better able to improve the patient experience

Factors associated with crisis pregnancies in Ireland: Findings from three nationally representative sexual health surveys

Background: Findings on the demographic and sexual health characteristics associated with the experience of a crisis pregnancy is important to inform the public health policy of a country, including Ireland. Findings from other jurisdictions have suggested that certain demographic groups are at risk for unintended pregnancies and the disparity between the groups have been growing in recent years. Ireland is a country which experienced much economic and societal change in the first decade of the 21st century, changes which are likely to have affected demographic variables pertaining to sexual health. The current study had two aims: to investigate changes in the socioeconomic characteristics associated with crisis pregnancies over a seven year period [2003 to 2010], and to investigate the recent [2010] socioeconomic risk factors associated with crisis pregnancies in Ireland. Methods: The study compared the results from 18-45 year old women using data from three broadly similar nationally representative Irish sexual health surveys carried out in 2003, 2004-2006 and 2010. Chi square analysis compared of the socioeconomic characteristics across the seven year period and found that a higher proportion of women with two or more children and women for whom religion was not important reported a crisis pregnancy in 2010 compared with earlier years. A logistic regression then investigated the sexual health history and socioeconomic factors associated with the experience of a recent crisis pregnancy using the most recent 2010 data. Results: Receipt of sex education and contraception use at first sex significantly predicted the experiencing of a recent crisis pregnancy. Younger women and those with a lower level of education were more likely to report having experienced a recent crisis pregnancy. Conclusion: Similar demographic groups are at risk for experiencing a crisis pregnancy in Ireland compared with international research, yet the disparities between demographic groups who have experienced a crisis pregnancy appear to be decreasing rather than increasing over a seven year period. Recommendations are made with regard to the provision of continued sex education throughout the lifespan, particularly for those women who are at an increased risk of experiencing a crisis pregnancy

Exploring the use of rapport in professional information‐gathering contexts by systematically mapping the evidence base

A growing body of research illustrates consensus between researchers and practitioners that developing rapport facilitates cooperation and disclosure in a range of professional information gathering contexts. In such contexts, rapport behaviors are often intentionally used in an attempt to facilitate a positive interaction with another adult, which may or may not result in genuine mutual rapport. To examine how rapport has been manipulated and measured in professional contexts we systematically mapped the relevant evidence-base in this field. For each of the 35 studies that met our inclusion criteria, behaviors associated with building rapport were coded in relation to whether they were verbal, non-verbal, or para-verbal. Methods to measure rapport were also coded and recorded, as were different types of disclosure. A Searchable Systematic Map was produced to catalogue key study characteristics. Discussion focuses on the underlying intention of the rapport behaviors that featured most frequently across studies

Prescription for nursing informatics in pre-registration nurse education.

Nurses need to be able to use information and communications technology not only to support their own practice, but also to help their patients make best use of it. This article argues that nurses are not currently adequately prepared to work with information and technology through their pre-registration education. Reflecting the lack of nursing informatics expertise, it is recommended that all pre-registration nursing programmes should have access to a nursing informatics specialist. A prescription to meet the informatics needs of the newly qualified nurse is proposed. This places the areas that need to be included in pre-registration education into broad groups that both articulate the competencies that nurses need to develop, and indicate why they are needed, rather than providing context-free checklists of skills. This is presented as a binary scatter chart with two axes, skill to knowledge and technology to information

Vitrectomy with complete posterior hyaloid removal for ischemic central retinal vein occlusion: Series of cases

BACKGROUND: Central retinal vein occlusion (CRVO) is a common retinal vascular disorder with potentially complications: (1) persistent macular edema and (2) neovascular glaucoma. No safe treatment exists that promotes the return of lost vision. Eyes with CRVO may be predisposed to vitreous degeneration. It has been suggested that if the vitreous remains attached to the macula owing to a firm vitreomacular adhesion, the resultant vitreous traction can cause inflammation with retinal capillary dilation, leakage and subsequent edema6. The roll of vitrectomy in ischemic CRVO surgical procedures has not been evaluated. CASE PRESENTATION: This is a non comparative, prospective, longitudinal, experimental and descriptive series of cases. Ten eyes with ischemic CRVO. Vitrectomy with complete posterior hyaloid removal was performed. VA, rubeosis, intraocular pressure (IOP), and macular edema were evaluated clinically. Multifocal ERG (m-ERG), fluorescein angiography (FAG) and optic coherence tomography (OCT) were performed. Follow-up was at least 6 months. Moderate improvement of visual acuity was observed in 60% eyes and stabilized in 40%. IOP changed from 15.7 ± 3.05 mmHg to 14.9 ± 2.69 mmHg post-operative and macular edema from 976 ± 196 μm to 640 ± 191 μm to six month. The P1 wave amplitude changed from 25.46 ± 12.4 mV to 20.54 ± 11.2 mV. CONCLUSION: A solo PPV with posterior hyaloid removal may help to improve anatomic and functional retina conditions in some cases. These results should be considered when analyzing other surgical maneuvers

Great Expectations: Voluntary Sports Clubs and Their Role in Delivering National Policy for English Sport

“The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com”. Copyright International Society for Third-Sector Research and The Johns Hopkins University. DOI: 10.1007/s11266-009-9095-yVoluntary sports clubs (VSCs) account for about a quarter of all volunteering in England. The volunteers work in a mutual aid, self-production, self-consumption system whose main purpose is identifying and nurturing high-level performers. But the new HMG/Sport England strategies leading to London 2012 expects volunteers to make a major contribution to sustaining and extending participation. The study utilized six focus group sessions with a total of 36 officials and members of 36 clubs across the six counties of Eastern England to assess whether and to what extent government policy objectives can be delivered through the voluntary sector. The study focused on the perceptions and attitudes of club members about being expected to serve public policy and the current pressures they and their clubs face. The results lead the authors to question the appropriateness, sensitivity, and feasibility of current sport policy, particularly the emphasis on VSCs as policy implementers.Peer reviewe