Growth and Containment of a Hierarchical Criminal Network

We model the hierarchical evolution of an organized criminal network via antagonistic recruitment and pursuit processes. Within the recruitment phase, a criminal kingpin enlists new members into the network, who in turn seek out other affiliates. New recruits are linked to established criminals according to a probability distribution that depends on the current network structure. At the same time, law enforcement agents attempt to dismantle the growing organization using pursuit strategies that initiate on the lower level nodes and that unfold as self-avoiding random walks. The global details of the organization are unknown to law enforcement, who must explore the hierarchy node by node. We halt the pursuit when certain local criteria of the network are uncovered, encoding if and when an arrest is made; the criminal network is assumed to be eradicated if the kingpin is arrested. We first analyze recruitment and study the large scale properties of the growing network; later we add pursuit and use numerical simulations to study the eradication probability in the case of three pursuit strategies, the time to first eradication and related costs. Within the context of this model, we find that eradication becomes increasingly costly as the network increases in size and that the optimal way of arresting the kingpin is to intervene at the early stages of network formation. We discuss our results in the context of dark network disruption and their implications on possible law enforcement strategies.Comment: 16 pages, 11 Figures; New title; Updated figures with color scheme better suited for colorblind readers and for gray scale printin

Fluctuation-Facilitated Charge Migration along DNA

We propose a model Hamiltonian for charge transfer along the DNA double helix with temperature driven fluctuations in the base pair positions acting as the rate limiting factor for charge transfer between neighboring base pairs. We compare the predictions of the model with the recent work of J.K. Barton and A.H. Zewail (Proc.Natl.Acad.Sci.USA, {\bf 96}, 6014 (1999)) on the unusual two-stage charge transfer of DNA.Comment: 4 pages, 2 figure

Growth And Containment Of A Hierarchical Criminal Network

We model the hierarchical evolution of an organized criminal network via antagonistic recruitment and pursuit processes. Within the recruitment phase, a criminal kingpin enlists new members into the network, who in turn seek out other affiliates. New recruits are linked to established criminals according to a probability distribution that depends on the current network structure. At the same time, law enforcement agents attempt to dismantle the growing organization using pursuit strategies that initiate on the lower level nodes and that unfold as self-avoiding random walks. The global details of the organization are unknown to law enforcement, who must explore the hierarchy node by node. We halt the pursuit when certain local criteria of the network are uncovered, encoding if and when an arrest is made; the criminal network is assumed to be eradicated if the kingpin is arrested. We first analyze recruitment and study the large scale properties of the growing network; later we add pursuit and use numerical simulations to study the eradication probability in the case of three pursuit strategies, the time to first eradication and related costs. Within the context of this model, we find that eradication becomes increasingly costly as the network increases in size and that the optimal way of arresting the kingpin is to intervene at the early stages of network formation. We discuss our results in the context of dark network disruption and their implications on possible law enforcement strategies.Physical Review E 93(2), 022308. (2016)1539-375

Infectious pathogens may trigger specific allo-HLA reactivity via multiple mechanisms

Nephrolog

The Association Between Broad Antigen HLA Mismatches, Eplet HLA Mismatches and Acute Rejection After Kidney Transplantation

Epitope matching, which evaluates mismatched amino acids within antigen-antibody interaction sites (eplets), may better predict acute rejection than broad antigen matching alone. We aimed to determine the association between eplet mismatches and acute rejection in kidney transplant recipients.The association between eplet mismatches, broad antigen mismatches and acute rejection was assessed using adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression. Model discrimination for acute rejection was evaluated using the area under receiver operating characteristic curves.Of the 3,499 kidney transplant recipients from 2006 to 2011, the average (SD) number of broad antigen and eplet mismatches were 3.4 (1.7) and 22.8 (12.2), respectively. Compared with 0 to 2 eplet mismatches, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for acute rejection among those with 20 or greater eplet mismatches was 2.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-3.52; P = 0.001). The adjusted area under the curve for broad antigen mismatches was 0.58 (95% CI, 0.56-0.61), similar to that for eplet mismatches (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.61; P = 0.365). In recipients who were considered as low immunological risk (0-2 broad antigen HLA-ABDR mismatch), those with 20 or greater eplet mismatches experienced an increased risk of rejection compared to those with less than 20 mismatches (adjusted HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.11-3.08; P = 0.019).Increasing number of eplet mismatches is associated with acute rejection in kidney transplant recipients. Consideration of eplet HLA mismatches may improve risk stratification for acute rejection in a selected group of kidney transplant candidates.Hung Thanh Do Nguyen, Germaine Wong, Jeremy R. Chapman, Stephen P. McDonald, Patrick T. Coates, Narelle Watson, Lloyd D'Orsogna, and Wai Hon Li

Characterising B cell numbers and memory B cells in HIV infected and uninfected Malawian adults

BACKGROUND: Untreated human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease disrupts B cell populations causing reduced memory and reduced naïve resting B cells leading to increases in specific co-infections and impaired responses to vaccines. To what extent antiretroviral treatment reverses these changes in an African population is uncertain. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed. We recruited HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected Malawian adults both on and off antiretroviral therapy attending the Queen Elizabeth Central hospital in Malawi. Using flow cytometry, we enumerated B cells and characterized memory B cells and compared these measurements by the different recruitment groups. RESULTS: Overall 64 participants were recruited - 20 HIV uninfected (HIV-), 30 HIV infected ART naïve (HIV+N) and 14 HIV-infected ART treated (HIV+T). ART treatment had been taken for a median of 33 months (Range 12-60 months). Compared to HIV- the HIV+N adults had low absolute number of naïve resting B cells (111 vs. 180 cells/μl p = 0.008); reduced memory B cells (27 vs. 51 cells/μl p = 0.0008). The HIV+T adults had B-cell numbers similar to HIV- except for memory B cells that remained significantly lower (30 vs. 51 cells/μl p = 0.02). In the HIV+N group we did not find an association between CD4 count and B cell numbers. CONCLUSIONS: HIV infected Malawian adults have abnormal B-cell numbers. Individuals treated with ART show a return to normal in B-cell numbers but a persistent deficit in the memory subset is noted. This has important implications for long term susceptibility to co-infections and should be evaluated further in a larger cohort study

Collective Motion and Phase Transitions of Symmetric Camphor Boats

The motion of several self-propelled boats in a narrow channel displays spontaneous pattern formation and kinetic phase transitions. In contrast with previous studies on self-propelled particles, this model does not require stochastic fluctuations and it is experimentally accessible. By varying the viscosity in the system, it is possible to form either a stationary state, correlated or uncorrelated oscillations, or unidirectional flow. Here, we describe and analyze these self organized patterns and their transitions.Comment: 6 pages, 6 figure

Aggregation Pattern Transitions by Slightly Varying the Attractive/Repulsive Function

Among collective behaviors of biological swarms and flocks, the attractive/repulsive (A/R) functional links between particles play an important role. By slightly changing the cutoff distance of the A/R function, a drastic transition between two distinct aggregation patterns is observed. More precisely, a large cutoff distance yields a liquid-like aggregation pattern where the particle density decreases monotonously from the inside to the outwards within each aggregated cluster. Conversely, a small cutoff distance produces a crystal-like aggregation pattern where the distance between each pair of neighboring particles remains constant. Significantly, there is an obvious spinodal in the variance curve of the inter-particle distances along the increasing cutoff distances, implying a legible transition pattern between the liquid-like and crystal-like aggregations. This work bridges the aggregation phenomena of physical particles and swarming of organisms in nature upon revealing some common mechanism behind them by slightly varying their inter-individual attractive/repulsive functions, and may find its potential engineering applications, for example, in the formation design of multi-robot systems and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs)