2,361 research outputs found
An Event Study of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan
The number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan has been closely related to the political relationship across the Taiwan Strait. The occurrence of political events and disasters or accidents have had, and will continue to have, a huge impact on the Taiwan tourism market. To date, there has been relatively little empirical research conducted on this issue.
In this paper, tourists are characterized as being involved in one of three types of tourism: group tourism (group-type), individual tourism (individual-type), and medical cosmetology (medical-type). We use McAleer’s (2015) fundamental equation in tourism finance to examine the correlation that exists between the rate of change in the number of tourists and the rate of return on tourism.
Second, we use the event study method to observe whether the numbers of tourists have changed abnormally before and after the occurrence of major events on both sides of the Strait. Three different types of conditional variance models, namely, GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1), are used to estimate the abnormal rate of change in the number of tourists. The empirical results concerning the major events affecting the changes in the numbers of tourists from China to Taiwan are economically significant, and confirm which types of tourists are most likely to be affected by such major events
Risk Spillovers in Returns for Chinese and International Tourists to Taiwan
Fluctuations in the numbers of visitors directly affect the rates of return on tourism
business activities. Therefore, maintaining a firm grasp of the relationship between the
changes in the numbers of Chinese tourists and international travellers visiting Taiwan
is conducive to the formulation of an effective and practical tourism strategy. Although
the topic of international visitors to Taiwan is important, existing research has discussed
the issue of the travel demand between Chinese tourists and international travellers
visiting Taiwan. This paper is the first to examine the spillover effects between the rate
of change in the numbers of Chinese tourist arrivals and the rate of change in the
numbers of international traveller arrivals. Using daily data for Chinese tourists and
international travellers visiting Taiwan over the period from 1 January 2014 to 31
October 2016, together with the Diagonal BEKK model, the paper analyses the covolatility
spillover effects between the rate of change in the numbers of international
travellers and the rate of change in the numbers of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan. The
empirical results show that there is no dependency relationship between the rate of
change in the numbers of Chinese tourists and the rate of change in the numbers of
international travellers visiting Taiwan. However, there is a significant negative covolatility
spillover effect between the rate of change in the numbers of Chinese tourists
and the rate of change in the numbers of international travellers. The empirical findings
suggest that Taiwan should abandon its development strategy of focusing only on a
single market, namely China, and to be pro-active in encouraging visits by international
travellers to Taiwan for sightseeing purposes, thereby increasing the willingness of
international travellers to visit Taiwan. Moreover, with the reduction in the numbers of
Chinese tour groups visiting Taiwan, and increases in the numbers of individual
travellers, the Taiwan Government should change its previous travel policies of mainly
attracting Chinese tour group travellers and actively promoting in-depth tourism among
international tourists, by developing tourism that focuses on the special characteristics
of different localities. In this way, the government can enhance the quality of Taiwan’s
tourism, and also attract travellers with high spending power
Explicit Modeling of Ancestry Improves Polygenic Risk Scores and BLUP Prediction
Polygenic prediction using genome-wide SNPs can provide high prediction accuracy for complex traits. Here, we investigate the question of how to account for genetic ancestry when conducting polygenic prediction. We show that the accuracy of polygenic prediction in structured populations may be partly due to genetic ancestry. However, we hypothesized that explicitly modeling ancestry could improve polygenic prediction accuracy. We analyzed three GWAS of hair color (HC), tanning ability (TA), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) in European Americans (sample size from 7,440 to 9,822) and considered two widely used polygenic prediction approaches: polygenic risk scores (PRSs) and best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP). We compared polygenic prediction without correction for ancestry to polygenic prediction with ancestry as a separate component in the model. In 10-fold cross-validation using the PRS approach, the R(2) for HC increased by 66% (0.0456-0.0755; P < 10(-16)), the R(2) for TA increased by 123% (0.0154 to 0.0344; P < 10(-16)), and the liability-scale R(2) for BCC increased by 68% (0.0138-0.0232; P < 10(-16)) when explicitly modeling ancestry, which prevents ancestry effects from entering into each SNP effect and being overweighted. Surprisingly, explicitly modeling ancestry produces a similar improvement when using the BLUP approach, which fits all SNPs simultaneously in a single variance component and causes ancestry to be underweighted. We validate our findings via simulations, which show that the differences in prediction accuracy will increase in magnitude as sample sizes increase. In summary, our results show that explicitly modeling ancestry can be important in both PRS and BLUP prediction
An Event Study Analysis of Political Events, Disasters, and Accidents for Chinese Tourists to Taiwan
[[abstract]]The number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan has been closely related to the political relationship across the Taiwan Strait. The occurrence of political events and disasters or accidents have had, and will continue to have, a huge impact on the Taiwan tourism market. To date, there has been relatively little empirical research conducted on this issue. Tourists are characterized as being involved in one of three types of tourism: group tourism (group-type), individual tourism (individual-type), and medical cosmetology (medical-type). We use the fundamental equation in tourism finance to examine the correlation that exists between the rate of change in the number of tourists and the rate of return on tourism. Second, we use the event study method to observe whether the numbers of tourists have changed abnormally before and after the occurrence of major events on both sides of the Strait. Three different types of conditional variance models, namely, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity, GARCH (1,1), Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle, GJR (1,1) and Exponential GARCH, EGARCH (1,1), are used to estimate the abnormal rate of change in the number of tourists. The empirical results concerning the major events affecting the changes in the numbers of tourists from China to Taiwan are economically significant, and confirm the types of tourists that are most likely to be affected by such major events.[[notice]]補ćŁĺ®Ś
Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan
Since 2008, when Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-Jeou relaxed the Cross-Strait policy,
China has become Taiwan’s largest source of international tourism. In order to
understand the risk persistence of Chinese tourists, the paper investigates the short-run
and long-run persistence of shocks to the change rate of Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The
daily data used for the empirical analysis is from 1 January 2013 to 28 February 2018.
McAleer’s (2015) fundamental equation in tourism finance is used to link the change
rate of tourist arrivals and the change in tourist revenues. Three widely-used univariate
conditional volatility models, namely GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1), are
used to measure the short-run and long-run persistence of shocks, as well as symmetric,
asymmetric and leverage effects. Three different Heterogeneous AutoRegressive (HAR)
models, HAR(1), HAR(1,7) HAR(1,7,28), are considered as alternative mean equations
for capturing a variety of long memory effects. The mean equations associated with
GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) are used to analyse the risk persistence of
the change in Chinese tourists.
The exponential smoothing process is used to adjust the
seasonality around the trend in Chinese tourists. The empirical results show asymmetric
impacts of positive and negative shocks on the volatility of the change in the number
of Group-type and Medical-type tourists, while Individual-type tourists display a
symmetric volatility pattern. Somewhat unusually, leverage effects are observed in
EGARCH for Medical-type tourists, which shows a negative correlation between
shocks in tourist numbers and the subsequent shocks to volatility. For both Group-type
and Medical-type tourists, the asymmetric impacts on volatility show that negative
shocks have larger effects than do positive shocks. The leverage effect in EGARCH for
Medical-type tourists implies that larger shocks would decrease volatility in the change
in the numbers of Medical-type tourists. These results suggest that Taiwan tourism
authorities should act to prevent the negative shocks for the Group-type and Medicaltype
Chinese tourists to dampen the shocks that arise from having fewer Chinese
tourists to Taiwan
Asymmetric Risk Impacts of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan
Since 2008, when Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-Jeou relaxed the Cross-Strait policy,
China has become Taiwan’s largest source of international tourism. In order to
understand the risk persistence of Chinese tourists, the paper investigates the short-run
and long-run persistence of shocks to the change rate of Chinese tourists to Taiwan.
The daily data used for the empirical analysis is from 1 January 2013 to 28 February
2018. McAleer’s (2015) fundamental equation in tourism finance is used to link the
change rate of tourist arrivals and the change in tourist revenues. Three widely-used
univariate conditional volatility models, namely GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and
EGARCH(1,1), are used to measure the short-run and long-run persistence of shocks,
as well as symmetric, asymmetric and leverage effects. Three different Heterogeneous
AutoRegressive (HAR) models, HAR(1), HAR(1,7) HAR(1,7,28), are considered as
alternative mean equations for capturing a variety of long memory effects. The mean
equations associated with GARCH(1,1), GJR(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) are used to
analyse the risk persistence of the change in Chinese tourists. The exponential
smoothing process is used to adjust the seasonality around the trend in Chinese
tourists. The empirical results show asymmetric impacts of positive and negative
shocks on the volatility of the change in the number of Group-type and Medical-type
tourists, while Individual-type tourists display a symmetric volatility pattern.
Somewhat unusually, leverage effects are observed in EGARCH for Medical-type
tourists, which shows a negative correlation between shocks in tourist numbers and
the subsequent shocks to volatility. For both Group-type and Medical-type tourists,
the asymmetric impacts on volatility show that negative shocks have larger effects
than do positive shocks. The leverage effect in EGARCH for Medical-type tourists
implies that larger shocks would decrease volatility in the change in the numbers of
Medical-type tourists. These results suggest that Taiwan tourism authorities should act
to prevent the negative shocks for the Group-type and Medical-type Chinese tourists
to dampen the shocks that arise from having fewer Chinese tourists to Taiwan
An Event Study of Chinese Tourists to Taiwan
The number of Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan has been closely related to the political
relationship across the Taiwan Strait. The occurrence of political events and disasters or
accidents have had, and will continue to have, a huge impact on the Taiwan tourism
market. To date, there has been relatively little empirical research conducted on this issue.
In this paper, tourists are characterized as being involved in one of three types of tourism:
group tourism (group-type), individual tourism (individual-type), and medical
cosmetology (medical-type). We use McAleer’s (2015) fundamental equation in tourism
finance to examine the correlation that exists between the rate of change in the number
of tourists and the rate of return on tourism. Second, we use the event study method to
observe whether the numbers of tourists have changed abnormally before and after the
occurrence of major events on both sides of the Strait. Three different types of
conditional variance models, namely, GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1), are
used to estimate the abnormal rate of change in the number of tourists. The empirical
results concerning the major events affecting the changes in the numbers of tourists from
China to Taiwan are economically significant, and confirm which types of tourists are
most likely to be affected by such major events
Recommended from our members
Hypokalemia, Its Contributing Factors and Renal Outcomes in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease
Background: In the chronic kidney disease (CKD) population, the impact of serum potassium (sK) on renal outcomes has been controversial. Moreover, the reasons for the potential prognostic value of hypokalemia have not been elucidated. Design, Participants & Measurements 2500 participants with CKD stage 1–4 in the Integrated CKD care program Kaohsiung for delaying Dialysis (ICKD) prospective observational study were analyzed and followed up for 2.7 years. Generalized additive model was fitted to determine the cutpoints and the U-shape association between sK and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). sK was classified into five groups with the cutpoints of 3.5, 4, 4.5 and 5 mEq/L. Cox proportional hazard regression models predicting the outcomes were used. Results: The mean age was 62.4 years, mean sK level was 4.2±0.5 mEq/L and average eGFR was 40.6 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Female vs male, diuretic use vs. non-use, hypertension, higher eGFR, bicarbonate, CRP and hemoglobin levels significantly correlated with hypokalemia. In patients with lower sK, nephrotic range proteinuria, and hypoalbuminemia were more prevalent but the use of RAS (renin-angiotensin system) inhibitors was less frequent. Hypokalemia was significantly associated with ESRD with hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.82 (95% CI, 1.03–3.22) in sK 5 mEq/L conferred 1.6-fold (95% CI,1.09–2.34) increased risk of ESRD compared with sK = 4.5–5 mEq/L. Hypokalemia was also associated with rapid decline of renal function defined as eGFR slope below 20% of the distribution range. Conclusion: In conclusion, both hypokalemia and hyperkalemia are associated with increased risk of ESRD in CKD population. Hypokalemia is related to increased use of diuretics, decreased use of RAS blockade and malnutrition, all of which may impose additive deleterious effects on renal outcomes
Effect of membrane fusion protein AdeT1 on the antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli
Acinetobacter baumannii is a prevalent pathogen that can rapidly acquire resistance to antibiotics. Indeed, multidrug-resistant A. baumannii is a major cause of hospital-acquired infections and has been recognised by the World Health Organization as one of the most threatening bacteria to our society. Resistance-nodulation-division (RND) type multidrug efflux pumps have been demonstrated to convey antibiotic resistance to a wide range of pathogens and are the primary resistance mechanism employed by A. baumannii. A component of an RND pump in A. baumannii, AdeT1, was previously demonstrated to enhance the antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli. Here, we report the results of experiments which demonstrate that wild-type AdeT1 does not confer antimicrobial resistance in E. coli, highlighting the importance of verifying protein production when determining minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) especially by broth dilution. Nevertheless, using an agar-based MIC assay, we found that propionylation of Lys280 on AdeT1 renders E. coli cells more resistant to erythromycin
Partial Trisomy 1q41 Syndrome Delineated by Whole Genomic Array Comparative Genome Hybridization
Partial trisomy 1q syndrome is a rare chromosomal abnormality. We report on a male infant with 46,XY,der(11)t(1;11)(q41;p15.5) due to unbalanced segregation of the maternal reciprocal balanced translocation 46,XX,t(1;11)(q41;p15.5). The baby presented with a mild phenotype, characterized by a triangular face, almond-shaped eyes, low ears, short stature with relatively long legs, and mild psychomotor retardation. We utilized whole genomic array comparative genome hybridization (CGH) with 4,000 selected bacterial artificial chromosomes (BACs) to define the chromosomal breakpoints and to delineate the extent of the partial trisomy in more detail. To our knowledge, this is the first case of nearly pure "partial trisomy 1q41" defined by whole genomic array CGH
- …