Empirical Behavior of a World Stock Index from Intra-Day to Monthly Time Scales

Most of the papers that study the distributional and fractal properties of financial instruments focus on stock prices or foreign exchange rates. This typically leads to mixed results concerning the distributions of log-returns and some multi-fractal properties of exchange rates, stock prices, and regional indices. This paper uses a well diversified world stock index as the central object of analysis. Such index approximates the growth optimal portfolio, which is demonstrated under the benchmark approach, it is the ideal reference unit for studying basic securities. When denominating this world index in units of a given currency, one measures the movements of the currency against the entire market. This provides a least disturbed observation of the currency dynamics. In this manner, one can expect to disentangle, e.g., the superposition of the two currencies involved in an exchange rate. This benchmark approach to the empirical analysis of financial data allows us to establish remarkable stylized facts. Most important is the observation that the repeatedly documented multi-fractal appearance of financial time series is very weak and much less pronounced than the deviation of the mono-scaling properties from Brownian-motion type scaling. The generalized Hurst exponent H(2) assumes typical values between 0.55 and 0.6. Accordingly, autocorrelations of log-returns decay according to a power law, and the quadratic variation vanishes when going to vanishing observation time step size. Furthermore, one can identify the Student t distribution as the log-return distribution of a well-diversified world stock index for long time horizons when a long enough data series is used for estimation. The study of dependence properties, finally, reveals that jumps at daily horizon originate primarily in the stock market while at 5 min horizon they originate in the foreign exchange market. These results are contrasted with the behavior of foreign exchange rates. The principal message of the empirical analysis is that there is evidence that a diffusion model without multi-scaling could reasonably well model the dynamics of a broadly diversified world stock index.

Diakonie als Sprechakt: .

David Lüth

Fitting a 3D Morphable Model to Edges: A Comparison Between Hard and Soft Correspondences

We propose a fully automatic method for fitting a 3D morphable model to single face images in arbitrary pose and lighting. Our approach relies on geometric features (edges and landmarks) and, inspired by the iterated closest point algorithm, is based on computing hard correspondences between model vertices and edge pixels. We demonstrate that this is superior to previous work that uses soft correspondences to form an edge-derived cost surface that is minimised by nonlinear optimisation.Comment: To appear in ACCV 2016 Workshop on Facial Informatic

Adherence to the GOLD Guidelines in Primary Care: Data from the Swiss COPD Cohort

(1) Introduction: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its associated morbidity and mortality are a global burden on both affected patients and healthcare systems. The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) issues guidelines with the aim of improving COPD management. Previous studies reported significant variability in adherence to these recommendations. The objective of this study was to evaluate Swiss primary practitioners’ adherence to the GOLD guidelines for the pharmacological treatment of stable COPD. (2) Methods: We studied patients who were included in the Swiss COPD cohort study, an ongoing prospective study in a primary care setting, between 2015 and 2022. The key inclusion criteria are age ≥ 40 years, FEV1/FVC ratio < 70%, and a smoking history of at least 20 pack-years. Adherence to the GOLD guidelines was assessed per visit and over time. (3) Results: The data of 225 COPD patients (mean age 67 ± 9 years, 64% male) and their respective 1163 visits were analyzed. In 65% of visits (726/1121), treatment was prescribed according to the GOLD guidelines. Non-adherence was most common in GOLD groups A and B (64% and 33%) and mainly consisted of over-treatment (two long-acting bronchodilators in group A (98/195, 50%) and ICS in groups A (21/195, 11%) and B (198/808, 25%)). In group D, the prescriptions conformed with the guidelines in 99% of cases (109/108). Guideline adherence was associated with high symptom load (COPD Assessment Test) (OR 1.04, p = 0.002), high number of exacerbations (OR = 2.07, p < 0.001), asthma overlap (OR 3.36, p = 0.049), and diabetes mellitus (OR 2.82, p = 0.045). (4) Conclusion: These results confirm a conflict between the GOLD recommendations and primary practice, mainly concerning over-treatment in GOLD groups A and B. Patients with high symptom load, high exacerbation risk, asthma overlap, and diabetes mellitus are more likely to be treated in conformity with the guidelines. Further research is needed to uncover the reasons for the discrepancies and to design strategies for improvement

Adherence to the GOLD Guidelines in Primary Care: Data from the Swiss COPD Cohort.

(1) Introduction: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its associated morbidity and mortality are a global burden on both affected patients and healthcare systems. The Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) issues guidelines with the aim of improving COPD management. Previous studies reported significant variability in adherence to these recommendations. The objective of this study was to evaluate Swiss primary practitioners' adherence to the GOLD guidelines for the pharmacological treatment of stable COPD. (2) Methods: We studied patients who were included in the Swiss COPD cohort study, an ongoing prospective study in a primary care setting, between 2015 and 2022. The key inclusion criteria are age ≥ 40 years, FEV1/FVC ratio < 70%, and a smoking history of at least 20 pack-years. Adherence to the GOLD guidelines was assessed per visit and over time. (3) Results: The data of 225 COPD patients (mean age 67 ± 9 years, 64% male) and their respective 1163 visits were analyzed. In 65% of visits (726/1121), treatment was prescribed according to the GOLD guidelines. Non-adherence was most common in GOLD groups A and B (64% and 33%) and mainly consisted of over-treatment (two long-acting bronchodilators in group A (98/195, 50%) and ICS in groups A (21/195, 11%) and B (198/808, 25%)). In group D, the prescriptions conformed with the guidelines in 99% of cases (109/108). Guideline adherence was associated with high symptom load (COPD Assessment Test) (OR 1.04, p = 0.002), high number of exacerbations (OR = 2.07, p < 0.001), asthma overlap (OR 3.36, p = 0.049), and diabetes mellitus (OR 2.82, p = 0.045). (4) Conclusion: These results confirm a conflict between the GOLD recommendations and primary practice, mainly concerning over-treatment in GOLD groups A and B. Patients with high symptom load, high exacerbation risk, asthma overlap, and diabetes mellitus are more likely to be treated in conformity with the guidelines. Further research is needed to uncover the reasons for the discrepancies and to design strategies for improvement

Greenland and Canadian Arctic ice temperature profiles database

Here, we present a compilation of 95 ice temperature profiles from 85 boreholes from the Greenland ice sheet and peripheral ice caps, as well as local ice caps in the Canadian Arctic. Profiles from only 31 boreholes (36 %) were previously available in open-access data repositories. The remaining 54 borehole profiles (64 %) are being made digitally available here for the first time. These newly available profiles, which are associated with pre-2010 boreholes, have been submitted by community members or digitized from published graphics and/or data tables. All 95 profiles are now made available in both absolute (meters) and normalized (0 to 1 ice thickness) depth scales and are accompanied by extensive metadata. These metadata include a transparent description of data provenance. The ice temperature profiles span 70 years, with the earliest profile being from 1950 at Camp VI, West Greenland. To highlight the value of this database in evaluating ice flow simulations, we compare the ice temperature profiles from the Greenland ice sheet with an ice flow simulation by the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM). We find a cold bias in modeled near-surface ice temperatures within the ablation area, a warm bias in modeled basal ice temperatures at inland cold-bedded sites, and an apparent underestimation of deformational heating in high-strain settings. These biases provide process level insight on simulated ice temperatures