Labor Market Dysfunction During the Great Recession

This paper documents the abnormally slow recovery in the labor market during the Great Recession, and analyzes how mortgage modification policies contributed to delayed recovery. By making modifications means-tested by reducing mortgage payments based on a borrower's current income, these programs change the incentive for households to relocate from a relatively poor labor market to a better labor market. We find that modifications raise the unemployment rate by about 0.5 percentage points, and reduce output by about 1 percent, reflecting both lower employment and lower productivity, which is the result of individuals losing skills as unemployment duration is longer.

An anatomy of monopsony : Search frictions, amenities and bargaining in concentrated markets

We contribute a theory in which three channels interact to determine the degree of monopsony power and therefore the markdown of a worker’s spot wage relative to her marginal product: (1) heterogeneity in worker-firm-specific preferences (non-wage amenities), (2) firm granularity, and (3) off- and on-the-job search frictions. We use Norwegian data to discipline each channel and then reproduce new reduced-form empirical relationships between market concentration, job flows, wages and wage inequality. In doing so we provide a novel method for clustering occupations into local labor markets. Our main exercise quantifies the contribution of each channel to income inequality and wage markdowns. The average markdown is 21 percent in our baseline estimation. Removing nonwage amenity dispersion narrows them by a third. Giving the next-lowest-ranked competitor a seat at the bargaining table narrows them by half, suggesting that granularity and strategic interactions in the bargaining process is an important source of markdowns. Removing search frictions narrows them by two-thirds. Each counterfactual reduces wage inequality and increases welfare.publishedVersio

Rational Expectations Models with Higher Order Beliefs,” mimeo

Abstract This paper develops a general method of solving rational expectations models with higher order beliefs. Higher order beliefs are crucial in an environment with dispersed information and strategic complementarity, and the equilibrium policy depends on infinite higher order beliefs. It is generally believed that solving this type of equilibrium policy requires an infinite number of state variable

Rational Expectations Models with Higher Order Beliefs,” mimeo

Abstract This paper develops a general method of solving rational expectations models with higher order beliefs. Higher order beliefs are crucial in an environment with dispersed information and strategic complementarity, and the equilibrium policy depends on infinite higher order beliefs. It is generally believed that solving this type of equilibrium policy requires an infinite number of state variable

Essays on Private Consumption Smoothing Mechanisms

This dissertation studies the interaction between private consumption smoothing mechanisms and labor markets. Chapter 1 studies the growth in credit card access among the unemployed over the last 40 years and how this credit growth has impacted labor markets. I begin by developing a general equilibrium business cycle model with search in both the labor market and in the credit market. Calibrating to the observed path of credit between 1974 and 2012, I find that growth in credit card access can lead to deeper and longer recessions as well as moderately slower recoveries. Chapter 2, which is co-authored with Lee E. Ohanian, looks at the impact of foreclosure protection on unemployment during the 2007-2009 financial crisis. Through a purely positive lens, we study and document the growing trend of mortgagors who skip mortgage payments as an extra source of ``informal'' unemployment insurance during the 2007 recession and the subsequent recovery. In a dynamic model, we capture this behavior by treating both delinquency and foreclosure not as one period events, but rather as protracted and potentially reversible episodes that influence job search behavior and wage acceptance decisions. After calibrating, we find that the observed foreclosure delays increase the unemployment rate by an additional 1/3%-3/4%. And finally, Chapter 3, which is co-authored with Lee E. Ohanian, Kris Gerardi, and Paul Willen, looks at the empirical determinants of default and provides a new suggestive measure of strategic default. In sharp contrast to prior studies that proxy for individual unemployment status using regional unemployment rates, we find that individual unemployment is the strongest predictor of default. We also find that only 13.9% of defaulters have both negative equity and enough liquid or illiquid assets to make 1 month's mortgage payment. This suggests that ``ruthless,'' or ``strategic'' default during the 2007-2009 recession is relatively rare, and suggests that policies designed to promote employment, such as payroll tax cuts, are most likely to stem defaults in the long run rather than policies that temporarily modify mortgages

Labor Market Power

What are the welfare implications of labor market power? We provide an answer to this question in two steps: (1) we develop a tractable quantitative, general equilibrium, oligopsony model of the labor market, (2) we estimate key parameters using within-firm-state, across-market differences in wage and employment responses to state corporate tax changes in U.S. Census data. We validate the model against recent evidence on productivity-wage pass-through, and new measurements of the distribution of local market concentration. The model implies welfare losses from labor market power that range from 2.9 to 8.0 percent of lifetime consumption. However, despite large contemporaneous losses, labor market power has not contributed to the declining labor share. Finally, we show that minimum wages can deliver moderate, and limited, welfare gains by reallocating workers from smaller to larger, more productive firms

Replication package for: How Credit Constraints Impact Job Finding Rates, Sorting & Aggregate Output

This repository includes (1) the files necessary for replication and (2) the data access statement for "How Credit Constraints Impact Job Finding Rates, Sorting & Aggregate Output," by Kyle Herkenhoff, Gordon Phillips and Ethan Cohen-Cole. This paper is accepted at the Review of Economic Studies