Integration of preference elicitation and the development of alternative forest plans : focusing on the requirements of the decision maker

Modern forest management frequently revolves around the concepts of developing strategic, tactical and operational level plans. These plans are developed through the use of simulation and optimization software, based on scientific models and mathematical programming. The optimal management schedule depends upon the decision maker(s) (DM) preferences. When developing forest plans for the DM(s) the method of acquiring preference information should be as value free as possible. To facilitate a DM-orientated approach, a selection of alternatives based on the acquired preferences should be made available to the DM so that a true choice can be made. The development of the forest plans should represent the desires and wishes of the forest owner at the time the plan is created. In order to balance the costs with the quality of the service provided, tools are required which develop client specific forest plans. The first objective of this thesis is to analyse different preference elicitation methods and study the impacts of information content on the selection of a plan. In papers I and II, plans were selected using an a posteriori method of preference elicitation. For paper III, preference elicitation was done in an interactive fashion, to develop an acceptable forest plan using both a priori and a posteriori preference elicitation methods. The second objective is to develop techniques for incorporating preference information into optimization methods. In paper IV, a series of goal programming models were used to incorporate the preference information from several DMs to generate a number of potentially desirable forest plans. Paper V develops a goal programming formulation which separates the treatment of different goals into two partitions; one strives to maintain the difference from the target for the goals in balance, the other strives to obtain the most efficient aggregate solution.Nykyaikainen metsäsuunnittelu keskittyy usein sellaisille käsitteellisille tasoille kuin strateginen, taktinen ja operatiivinen suunnittelu. Suunnitelmat on toteutettu käyttämällä simulointi- ja optimointiohjelmistoja, jotka perustuvat tieteellisiin malleihin ja matemaattiseen ohjelmointiin. Kuitenkin päätöksentekijän /jien (PT) preferenssit määrittelevät optimaalisen aikataulun metsänhoidolle. Metsäsuunnitelmia tuotettaessa menetelmän tulisi olla mahdollisimman vapaa suunnittelijan omista arvoista ja mielipiteistä. Jotta lähestymistapa olisi mahdollisimman PT-ystävällinen, pitäisi päätöksentekijälle esittää useita metsänsuunnittelun vaihtoehtoja, joiden perusteella PT voi tehdä aidosti henkilökohtaisen valintansa. Tuotettujen metsäsuunnitelmien tulisi vastata metsänomistajan sen hetkisiä toiveita ja mieltymyksiä. Jotta suunnitelmien kustannusten ja laadun välille saadaan tasapaino, tarvitsemme työkaluja joilla muokata metsäsuunnittelua paremmin asiakaslähtöiseksi. Tämän tutkimuksen ensimmäinen tavoite oli analysoida eri preferenssien hankintamenetelmiä, sekä selvittää saadun tiedon määrän vaikutus suunnitelman valintaan. Artikkeleissa I ja II suunnitelma valittiin a posteriori menetelmän avulla. Artikkelissa III preferenssien hankinta toteutettiin interaktiivisesti, siten, että hyväksyttävä metsäsuunnitelma saatiin aikaiseksi hyödyntämällä sekä a priori, että a posteriori preferenssien valintamenetelmiä. Tutkimuksen toinen tavoite oli kehittää tekniikoita, joilla sisällytetään preferenssitietoa osaksi optimointimenetelmiä. Artikkelissa IV on käytetty sarjaa tavoiteohjelmointimalleja, joiden tavoitteena oli sisällyttää preferenssitietoja useilta eri päätöksentekijöiltä, joiden pohjalta sitten tuotettiin useita PT:itä potentiaalisesti kiinnostavia metsäsuunnitelmia. Artikkeli V kehitti uuden tavan formuloida tavoiteohjelmoinnin tehtävä, , joka erottaa tavoitteiden käsittelyn kahteen osaan; toinen pyrkii löytämään mahdollisimman tasapainoisen ratkaisun ja toinen pyrkii löytämään kaikista tehokkaimman ratkaisuyhdistelmän

Forest multifunctionality is not resilient to intensive forestry

There is ample evidence that intensive management of ecosystems causes declines in biodiversity as well as in multiple ecosystem services, i.e., in multifunctionality. However, less is known about the permanence and reversibility of these responses. To gain insight into whether multifunctionality can be sustained under intensive management, we developed a framework building on the concept of resilience: a system's ability to avoid displacement and to return or transform to a desired state. We applied it to test the ability of forest multifunctionality to persist during and recover from intensive management for timber production in a boreal forest. Using forest growth simulations and multiobjective optimization, we created alternative future paths where the forest was managed for maximal timber production, for forest multifunctionality, or first maximal timber production and then multifunctionality. We show that forest multifunctionality is substantially diminished under intensive forestry and recovers the slower, the longer intensive forestry has been continued. Intensive forestry thus not only reduces forest multifunctionality but hinders its recovery should management goals change, i.e., weakens its resilience. The results suggest a need to adjust ecosystem management according to long-term sustainability goals already today

Interpreting wind damage risk-how multifunctional forest management impacts standing timber at risk of wind felling

Landscape multifunctionality, a widely accepted challenge for boreal forests, aims to simultaneously provide timber, non-timber ecosystem services, and shelter for biodiversity. However, multifunctionality requires the use of novel forest management regimes optimally combined over the landscape, and an increased share of sets asides. It remains unclear how this combination will shape stand vulnerability to wind disturbances and exposed timber volume. We combined forest growth simulations and multi-objective optimization to create alternative landscape level forest management scenarios. Management choices were restricted to 1) rotation forestry, 2) continuous cover forestry, and 3) all regimes allowed over a harvest intensity gradient from completely set aside landscapes to maximal economic gain. Estimates for the stands' structural and environmental characteristics were used to predict the stand level wind damage probability. We evaluated averaged wind-exposed standing timber volume and changing forest structure under management scenarios. Intensive rotation forestry reduced tree heights and wind damage risk, but also reduced landscape multifunctionality. Conversely, continuous cover forestry maintained multifunctionality but increased wind damage probability due to taller trees and higher thinning frequency. Overall, continuous cover forestry lowers the total volume of wind exposed timber at any given time compared with rotation forestry. Nevertheless, a selective application of rotation forestry contributes to high economic gains and increases landscape heterogeneity. A combination of management approaches across landscapes provides an efficient way to reduce the amount of wind-exposed timber volume while also increasing habitat for vertebrate and non-vertebrate species and satisfying high timber demands

Suomen metsien hakkuumahdollisuudet vuosina 2016–2045 valtakunnan metsien 12. inventointiin perustuen

Valtakunnan metsien 12. inventoinnin vuosina 2014–2018 mitatun maastoaineiston perusteella laskettu hakkuumahto eli metsänhoidon suosituksia noudattaen puuntuotannon metsämaalla hakattavissa olevan tukki- ja kuitupuun mitat täyttävän runkopuun vuotuinen määrä oli keskimäärin 138,9 milj. m3/v inventointia seuraavalla kymmenvuotiskaudella 2016–2025. Suurin ylläpidettävissä oleva aines- ja energiapuun hakkuukertymäarvio oli maakunnittaisista kestävyysrajoitteista johtuen keskimäärin 80,5 milj. m3/v runkopuuta vastaavalla kaudella. Arviota rajoitti erityisesti ainespuun hakkuukertymän kausittaiset tasaisuusvaatimukset ja Etelä-Suomen maakuntien alueilla lisäksi nettotulojen kausittaiset tasaisuusvaatimukset. Turvemaiden osuus ainespuukertymästä oli keskimäärin 22 % kaudella 2016–2025. 30 vuoden tarkastelujaksolla 2016–2045 suurin ylläpidettävissä oleva hakkuukertymäarvio oli keskimäärin 86,3 milj. m3/v, ja hakkuumahdollisuudet lisääntyivät laskelman aikana suhteellisesti eniten Päijät-Hämeen, Etelä-Karjalan, Etelä-Savon, Kainuun ja Lapin maakuntien alueilla. Vuosina 2016–2018 tilastoitu runkopuun hakkuukertymä Suomessa oli keskimäärin 91 % suurimman ylläpidettävissä olevan hakkuukertymän arviosta kaudella 2016–2025 ja 85 % tarkastelujaksolla 2016–2045. Maakunnittain oli kuitenkin huomattavaa vaihtelua, sillä Uudenmaan, Kanta-Hämeen, Kymenlaakson ja Etelä-Karjalan maakuntien alueilla vuosina 2016–2018 tilastoitu runkopuun hakkuukertymätaso ylitti suurimman ylläpidettävissä olevan hakkuukertymän 30 vuoden tarkastelujakson keskimääräisen arvion. Suurimman ylläpidettävissä olevan hakkuukertymäarvion mukainen runkopuun kokonaispoistuma oli keskimäärin 87 % runkopuun kasvuarviosta kaudella 2016–2025 ja 93 % tarkastelujaksolla 2016–2045 koko metsä- ja kitumaalla. Laskelma oli puuston runkotilavuutta lisäävä lukuun ottamatta Ahvenanmaan, Varsinais-Suomen, Satakunnan, Kanta-Hämeen, Pirkanmaan, Keski-Suomen ja Etelä-Pohjanmaan maakuntien alueita. Koko Suomessa runkotilavuuden arvioitiin lisääntyvän 30 vuoden tarkastelujaksolla 2 691 milj. m3:iin (+9 %). Laskelmissa sovelletut oletukset mm. laskentakorkokannasta, kasvuntasosta ja ainespuuhakkuiden hukkapuusta vaikuttivat huomattavasti laadittuihin hakkuumahdollisuusarvioihin. Laskelmien tuloksena saatujen hakkuukertymätasojen lisäksi laskelmaoletukset vaikuttivat myös mm. kasvatus- ja uudistushakkuiden suhteelliseen edullisuuteen ja siten laskelmissa valittujen hakkuiden rakenteeseen

Sectoral policies cause incoherence in forest management and ecosystem service provisioning

Various national policies guide forest use, but often with competing policy objectives leading to divergent management paradigms. Incoherent policies may negatively impact the sustainable provision of forest ecosystem services (FES), and forest multifunctionality. There is uncertainty among policymakers about the impacts of policies on the real world. We translated the policy documents of Finland into scenarios including the quantitative demands for FES, representing: the national forest strategy (NFS), the biodiversity strategy (BDS), and the bioeconomy strategy (BES). We simulated a Finland-wide systematic sample of forest stands with alternative management regimes and climate change. Finally, we used multi-objective optimization to identify the combination of management regimes matching best with each policy scenario and analysed their long-term effects on FES.The NFS scenario proved to be the most multifunctional, targeting the highest number of FES, while the BES had the lowest FES targets. However, the NFS was strongly oriented towards the value chain of wood and bioenergy and had a dominating economic growth target, which caused strong within-policy conflicts and hindered reaching biodiversity targets. The BDS and BES scenarios were instead more consistent but showed either sustainability gaps in terms of providing timber resources (BDS) or no improvements in forest biodiversity (BES). All policy scenarios resulted in forest management programs dominated by continuous cover forestry, set-aside areas, and intensive management zones, with proportions depending on the policy focus. Our results highlight for the first time the conflicts among national sectoral policies in terms of management requirements and effects on forest multifunctionality. The outcomes provide leverage points for policymakers to increase coherence among future policies and improve implementation of multiple uses of forests

Enhancing multifunctionality in European boreal forests: The potential role of Triad landscape functional zoning

Land-use policies aim at enhancing the sustainable use of natural resources. The Triad approach has been suggested to balance the social, ecological, and economic demands of forested landscapes. The core idea is to enhance multifunctionality at the landscape level by allocating landscape zones with specific management priorities, i.e., production (intensive management), multiple use (extensive management), and conservation (forest reserves). We tested the efficiency of the Triad approach and identified the respective proportion of above-mentioned zones needed to enhance multifunctionality in Finnish forest landscapes. Through a simulation and optimization framework, we explored a range of scenarios of the three zones and evaluated how changing their relative proportion (each ranging from 0 to 100%) impacted landscape multifunctionality, measured by various biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators. The results show that maximizing multifunctionality required around 20% forest area managed intensively, 50% extensively, and 30% allocated to forest reserves. In our case studies, such landscape zoning represented a good compromise between the studied multifunctionality components and maintained 61% of the maximum achievable net present value (i.e., total timber economic value). Allocating specific proportion of the landscape to a management zone had distinctive effects on the optimized economic or multifunctionality values. Net present value was only moderately impacted by shifting from intensive to extensive management, while multifunctionality benefited from less intensive and more diverse management regimes. This is the first study to apply Triad in a European boreal forest landscape, highlighting the usefulness of this approach. Our results show the potential of the Triad approach in promoting forest multifunctionality, as well as a strong trade-off between net present value and multifunctionality. We conclude that simply applying the Triad approach does not implicitly contribute to an overall increase in forest multifunctionality, as careful forest management planning still requires clear landscape objectives

Errors in the Short-Term Forest Resource Information Update

Currently the forest sector in Finland is looking towards the next generation's forest resource information systems. Information used in forest planning is currently collected by using an area-based approach (ABA) where airborne laser scanning (ALS) data are used to generalize field-measured inventory attributes over an entire inventory area. Inventories are typically updated at 10-year interval. Thus, one of the key challenges is the age of the inventory information and the cost-benefit trade-off between using the old data and obtaining new data. Prediction of future forest resource information is possible through growth modelling. In this paper, the error sources related to ALS-based forest inventory and the growth models applied in forest planning to update the forest resource information were examined. The error sources included (i) forest inventory, (ii) generation of theoretical stem distribution, and (iii) growth modelling. Error sources (ii) and (iii) stem from the calculations used for forest planning, and were combined in the investigations. Our research area, Evo, is located in southern Finland. In all, 34 forest sample plots (300 m(2)) have been measured twice tree-by-tree. First measurements have been carried out in 2007 and the second measurements in 2014 which leads to 7 year updating period. Respectively, ALS-based forest inventory data were available for 2007. The results showed that prediction of theoretical stem distribution and forest growth modelling affected only slightly to the quality of the predicted stem volume in short-term information update when compared to forest inventory error.Peer reviewe

Diversification of forest management can mitigate wind damage risk and maintain biodiversity

Mitigating future forest risks, safeguarding timber revenues and improving biodiversity are key considerations for current boreal forest management. Alternatives to rotation forestry likely have an important role, but how they will perform under a changing climate remains unclear. We used a boreal forest growth simulator to explore how variations on traditional clear-cutting, in rotation length, thinning intensity, and increasing number of remaining trees after final harvest (green tree retention), and on extent of continuous cover forestry will affect stand-level probability of wind damage, timber production, deadwood volume, and habitats for forest species. We used business-as-usual rotation forestry as a baseline and compared alternative management adaptations under the reference and two climate change scenarios. Climate change increased overall timber production and had lower impacts on biodiversity compared to management adaptations. Shortening the rotation length reduced the probability of wind damage compared to business-as-usual, but also decreased both deadwood volume and suitable habitats for our focal species. Continuous cover forestry, and management with refraining from thinnings, and extension of rotation length represent complementary approaches benefiting biodiversity, with respective effects of improving timber revenues, reducing wind damage risk, and benefiting old-growth forest structures. However, extensive application of rotation length shortening to mitigate wind damage risk may be detrimental for forest biodiversity. To safeguard forest biodiversity over the landscape, shortening of the rotation length could be complemented with widespread application of regimes promoting old-growth forest structures

Enhancing Resilience of Boreal Forests Through Management Under Global Change: a Review

Purpose of Review Boreal forests provide a wide range of ecosystem services that are important to society. The boreal biome is experiencing the highest rates of warming on the planet and increasing demand for forest products. Here, we review how changes in climate and its associated extreme events (e.g., windstorms) are putting at risk the capacity of these forests to continue providing ecosystem services. We further analyze the role of forest management to increase forest resilience to the combined effects of climate change and extreme events. Recent Findings Enhancing forest resilience recently gained a lot of interest from theoretical perspective. Yet, it remains unclear how to translate the theoretical knowledge into practice and how to operationalize boreal forest management to maintain forest ecosystem services and functions under changing global conditions. We identify and summarize the main management approaches (natural disturbance emulation, landscape functional zoning, functional complex network, and climate-smart forestry) that can promote forest resilience. Summary We review the concept of resilience in forest sciences, how extreme events may put boreal forests at risk, and how management can alleviate or promote such risks. We found that the combined effects of increased temperatures and extreme events are having negative impacts on forests. Then, we discuss how the main management approaches could enhance forest resilience and multifunctionality (simultaneous provision of high levels of multiple ecosystem services and species habitats). Finally, we identify the complementary strengths of individual approaches and report challenges on how to implement them in practice

Sectoral policies as drivers of forest management and ecosystems services: A case study in Bavaria, Germany

European countries have national sectoral polices to regulate and promote the provision of a wide range of forest ecosystems services (FES). However, potential incoherencies among these policies can negatively affect the efficient provision of FES. In this work, we evaluated the coherence among three national policies from Germany and their ability to effectively provide FES in the future: the Forest Strategy 2020 (FS), the National Strategy on Biological Diversity (BDS), and the German National Policy Strategy on Bioeconomy (BES). Using forest inventory data from the Federal State of Bavaria, we simulated a range of forest management options under three climate trajectories for 100 years into the future (2012–2112). Then, with multi-objective optimization, we translated each policy into a specific scenario and identified the best combination of management regimes that maximizes the targets defined in each policy scenario. The three policies were vague in the definition of FES. The FS was the most comprehensive policy aiming for a higher degree of multifunctionality, whereas the BES and BDS focused on less FES. The FS and the BDS showed the highest coherence, while the BES showed a stronger focus on timber production. As a result, the optimal management programs of FS and BDS showed high integration, with a dominance of Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF), and certain shares of set asides. Climate change led to an increase of set aside areas due to increased productivity. In the BES, the share of land among management regimes was strongly segregated between CCF and rotation forestry. Our policy coherence analysis showed that achieving a multifunctional provision of FES requires policy coherence, fostering a diverse management of the landscape that mainly takes advantage of integrative management, like CCF, but also segregates important parts of the landscape for intensive use and set asides. Nevertheless, the current high standing volumes in Bavaria will pose an additional risk to implement such management.peerReviewe