13,067 research outputs found

    Effects of memory on the shapes of simple outbreak trees

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    Genomic tools, including phylogenetic trees derived from sequence data, are increasingly used to understand outbreaks of infectious diseases. One challenge is to link phylogenetic trees to patterns of transmission. Particularly in bacteria that cause chronic infections, this inference is affected by variable infectious periods and infectivity over time. It is known that non-exponential infectious periods can have substantial effects on pathogens’ transmission dynamics. Here we ask how this non-Markovian nature of an outbreak process affects the branching trees describing that process, with particular focus on tree shapes. We simulate Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes and compare different patterns of infectivity over time. We find that memory (non-Markovian-ness) in the process can have a pronounced effect on the shapes of the outbreak’s branching pattern. However, memory also has a pronounced effect on the sizes of the trees, even when the duration of the simulation is fixed. When the sizes of the trees are constrained to a constant value, memory in our processes has little direct effect on tree shapes, but can bias inference of the birth rate from trees. We compare simulated branching trees to phylogenetic trees from an outbreak of tuberculosis in Canada, and discuss the relevance of memory to this dataset

    Fluctuation-enhanced sensing

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    We present a short survey on fluctuation-enhanced gas sensing. We compare some of its main characteristics with those of classical sensing. We address the problem of linear response, information channel capacity, missed alarms and false alarms.Comment: Keynote Talk at SPIE's 4th international symposium on Fluctuations and Noise, Conference Noise and Fluctuations in Circuits, Devices and Materials, Florence, Italy, May 20-24, 200

    Audit of Antenatal Testing of Sexually Transmissible Infections and Blood Borne Viruses at Western Australian Hospitals

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    In August 2007, the Western Australian Department of Health (DOH) released updated recommendations for testing of sexually transmissible infections (STI) and blood-borne viruses (BBV) in antenates. Prior to this, the Royal Australian & New Zealand College of Obstetricians & Gynaecologists (RANZCOG) antenatal testing recommendations had been accepted practice in most antenatal settings. The RANZCOG recommends that testing for HIV, syphilis, hepatitis B and C be offered at the first antenatal visit. The DOH recommends that in addition, chlamydia testing be offered. We conducted a baseline audit of antenatal STI/BBV testing in women who delivered at selected public hospitals before the DOH recommendations. We examined the medical records of 200 women who had delivered before 1st July 2007 from each of the sevenWAhospitals included in the audit. STI and BBV testing information and demographic data were collected. Of the 1,409 women included, 1,205 (86%) were non-Aboriginal and 200 (14%) were Aboriginal. High proportions of women had been tested for HIV (76%), syphilis (86%), hepatitis C (87%) and hepatitis B (88%). Overall, 72% of women had undergone STI/BBV testing in accordance with RANZCOG recommendations. However, chlamydia testing was evident in only 18% of records. STI/BBV prevalence ranged from 3.9% (CI 1.5– 6.3%) for chlamydia, to 1.7% (CI 1–2.4%) for hepatitis C, 0.7% (CI 0.3–1.2) for hepatitis B and 0.6% (CI 0.2–1) for syphilis. Prior to the DOH recommendations, nearly three-quarters of antenates had undergone STI/BBV testing in accordance with RANZCOG recommendations, but less than one fifth had been tested for chlamydia. The DOH recommendations will be further promoted with the assistance of hospitals and other stakeholders. A future audit will be conducted to determine the proportion of women tested according to the DOH recommendations. The hand book from this conference is available for download Published in 2008 by the Australasian Society for HIV Medicine Inc © Australasian Society for HIV Medicine Inc 2008 ISBN: 978-1-920773-59-

    Microbial risk factors of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases: potential therapeutic options

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    Infection and inflammation may have a crucial role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis. This hypothesis is supported by an increasing number of reports on the interaction between chronic infection, inflammation, and atherogenesis. Assessment of serological and inflammatory markers of infection may be useful adjuncts in identifying those patients who are at a higher risk of developing vascular events, and in whom more aggressive treatments might be warranted

    Spectral Methods for Time-Dependent Studies of Accretion Flows. II. Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Disks with Self-Gravity

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    Spectral methods are well suited for solving hydrodynamic problems in which the self-gravity of the flow needs to be considered. Because Poisson's equation is linear, the numerical solution for the gravitational potential for each individual mode of the density can be pre-computed, thus reducing substantially the computational cost of the method. In this second paper, we describe two different approaches to computing the gravitational field of a two-dimensional flow with pseudo-spectral methods. For situations in which the density profile is independent of the third coordinate (i.e., an infinite cylinder), we use a standard Poisson solver in spectral space. On the other hand, for situations in which the density profile is a delta function along the third coordinate (i.e., an infinitesimally thin disk), or any other function known a priori, we perform a direct integration of Poisson's equation using a Green's functions approach. We devise a number of test problems to verify the implementations of these two methods. Finally, we use our method to study the stability of polytropic, self-gravitating disks. We find that, when the polytropic index Gamma is <= 4/3, Toomre's criterion correctly describes the stability of the disk. However, when Gamma > 4/3 and for large values of the polytropic constant K, the numerical solutions are always stable, even when the linear criterion predicts the contrary. We show that, in the latter case, the minimum wavelength of the unstable modes is larger than the extent of the unstable region and hence the local linear analysis is inapplicable.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures. To appear in the ApJ. High resolution plots and animations of the simulations are available at http://www.physics.arizona.edu/~chan/research/astro-ph/0512448/index.htm

    Breastfeeding patterns and risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

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    The risk of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) was investigated in relation to breastfeeding patterns in the Northern California Childhood Leukaemia Study. Data collected by self-administered and in-person questionnaires from biological mothers of leukaemia cases (age 0-14 years) in the period 1995-2002 were matched to birth certificate controls on date of birth, sex, Hispanic ethnic status, and maternal race. Ever compared to never breastfeeding was not associated with risk of ALL at ages 1-14 years (odds ratio=0.99; 95% CI=0.64-1.55) and ages 2-5 years (OR=1.49; 95% CI=0.83-2.65). Various measures of breastfeeding duration compared to absence of breastfeeding also had no significant effect on risk. Complimentary feeding characteristics such as type of milk/formula used and age started eating solid foods among breastfed children were not associated with ALL risk. This study provides no evidence that breastfeeding affects the occurrence of childhood ALL

    Cavity optoelectromechanical regenerative amplification

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    Cavity optoelectromechanical regenerative amplification is demonstrated. An optical cavity enhances mechanical transduction, allowing sensitive measurement even for heavy oscillators. A 27.3 MHz mechanical mode of a microtoroid was linewidth narrowed to 6.6\pm1.4 mHz, 30 times smaller than previously achieved with radiation pressure driving in such a system. These results may have applications in areas such as ultrasensitive optomechanical mass spectroscopy

    Electronic States of Heavily Doped Molecular Crystals—Naphthalene. II. Experimental

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    The energy states and optical spectra of heavily doped mixed crystals are investigated. Studies are made for the following binary systems: (1) naphthalene-h8 and -d8, (2) naphthalene-h8 and -ad1, and (3) naphthalene-h8 and -bd1 , corresponding to strong, medium, and weak perturbations, respectively. In addition to ordinary absorption spectra at 4°K, band-to-band transitions at both 4 and 77°K are also analyzed with emphasis on their relations to cooperative excitation and over-all density-of-states functions for mixed crystals. It is found that the theoretical calculations presented in a previous paper agree generally with experiments except for cluster states observed in system (1) at lower guest concentrations. These features are discussed semiquantitatively. As to the intermolecular interaction parameters, it is found that experimental results compare favorably with calculations based on experimental density-of-states functions but not with those based on octopole interactions or charge-transfer interactions. Previous experimental results of Sheka and the theoretical model of Broude and Rashba are also compared with present investigations
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